CanPol: Thread of the Year Edition

[KrazyHorse]

The Bloc will probably get 58-60 in QC if my instincts are any good.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Who cares about the numbers. The Liberals are going to form the next government (minority or majority), and everyone knows it.

[JimmyCracksCorn]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
The Bloc will probably get 58-60 in QC if my instincts are any good.

Oh yeah, at least.

I'm really interested to see how the Bloc fair in this election.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
LIB Lac St Louis 26k

Where I lived for 20 years with my parents

LIB LaSalle Emard 12k

Where my father's family is from

LIB Notre Dame 14k

Where my parents moved to recently and where my high school was

LIB Pierrefonds 22k

Where most of my friends from Montreal live

LIB St. Laurent 21k

Where my fiancee lives

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn


Oh yeah, at least.

No, not "at least"

You don't understand Montreal if you think they can take many more than that.

For them to win 62 they need to pick up every possible seat.

The Liberals will probably manage to grab 2-4 of the closer ones, giving the Bloc 58-60

Don't make the same mistake Ben made last election.

English people don't vote Bloc. It's pretty much that simple.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by JimmyCracksCorn
Who cares about the numbers. The Liberals are going to form the next government (minority or majority), and everyone knows it.

I give the Conservatives an outside chance of grabbing a minority (4-1, say). This minority would have a lifespan of less than 9 months, in my view.

The chances of a Liberal majority are likely less than 5% at this point.

We're in for another 18 months of governance by Liberal minority.

[Ben Kenobi]

Don't make the same mistake Ben made last election.

English people don't vote Bloc. It's pretty much that simple

And I'm taking a look at Quebec, seat by seat. I think that 62 is quite reasonable, assuming liberal support does not improve over the campaign.

Hey, at least this time I'm not the fellow saying it will be 68.

[Ben Kenobi]

KH:

I only see two that the Liberals could take, Chicoutimi and the Nunavik-Eeyou seat, way up north. All the other BQ seats are safe.

58 means the Liberals kiss goodbye to these seats.

Gatineau 830
Jeanne-Le Bar 72
Papineau 468
Brome 1072

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
KH:

I only see two that the Liberals could take, Chicoutimi and the Nunavik-Eeyou seat, way up north. All the other BQ seats are safe.

Ummm...I mean the seats that the Libs hold currently, but which you were not considering "safe"

My thought is that they will win 2-4 of these seats or of seats that the BQ is not secure in.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi


And I'm taking a look at Quebec, seat by seat. I think that 62 is quite reasonable

62 is at the edge of possibility.

The thirteen you listed are unwinnable for the Bloc.

The Bloc has to win all contestable seats to make 62.

I think they won't, though they will win the majority of them.

[RedFred]

Can anyone explain the big red tide in Ontario?

I would have thought if nothing else, the Quebec sponsorship scandal leading to increased separatist support would have played differently in Ontario.

[November Adam]

So has anyone heard Harpers newest platform, regarding the elected senate, saying the appointed senate is out dated.

I wonder if it will be a triple E senate.

[Kontiki]

Is that a new platform? I thought they were talking about that last election. Not a bad idea, IMO.

[Ben Kenobi]

They've been talking about a triple e senate since the old Reform party. Always been a critical component of their platform.

[KrazyHorse]

Equal number of senators per province = stupid