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Average gas prices will not hit $6 a gallon (in 2005 dollars) in our lifetimes unless some super major catastrophe happens. At worst it may hover around $3/gal, which is not nearly enough to get people to massive flock to the inner city.
Better to define the bet in terms of $/barrel (per gallon would bring gas taxes into play and you never know - those wascally Democrats might raise 'em!).
That being said, I think Imran & John are closer to the right answer than Odin. People whine and ***** about gas prices, but almost no one I know bothers to consider adjusting for inflation when they say things like "I remember when gas was 99 cents a gallon!"
Originally posted by Arrian
People whine and ***** about gas prices, but almost no one I know bothers to consider adjusting for inflation when they say things like "I remember when gas was 99 cents a gallon!"
-Arrian
I don't think there was that much inflation since the late 90's. What has it been lately, 2% a year IIRC?
Originally posted by JohnT
At the rate of the test plot, the 160 acres of land should produce about 15,000,000 barrels of oil.
That's a fvckload of oil for only 160 acres. Pretty damn impressive.
However, I note that the costs of production that they quote are rather high.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
We're back down to about 83-87 cents a litre here.
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I don't think there was that much inflation since the late 90's. What has it been lately, 2% a year IIRC?
It adds up, though, and people don't really think about it. Gas prices before the recent sudden upswing had actually declined over time when adjusted for inflation - we were getting really cheap gas there for a while.
It's hovering just over $2/gallon here in CT. I tanked up in NH for $1.93 on the way back after Thanksgiving, though.
That's a fvckload of oil for only 160 acres. Pretty damn impressive.
However, I note that the costs of production that they quote are rather high.
Now that it's not 11:00pm, I checked my numbers and come up with about 12,000,000 barrels (1.714 barrels/sq foot * 7 million sq feet). Of course, 1/3 of that is lost in the expenditure needed to extract it (1:3.5) so that we only come up about 6-8.5 million barrels produced on the test plot.
These are amazing figures. In my area of Ohio, wildcatters would be ecstatic to get 20 barrels of oil a day for a couple of years on a 15 acre plot.
I know Flubber deals in much more productive fields, but I bet those numbers are even amazing to him.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Remember that's over a period of 15 months, so when I say 1.7 barrels per sq ft, that means .0038 barrel/day slowly oozing out of each sq. ft for a period of 15 months.
Yes, that's a very short period of time as these things go. That has lots of implications that I haven't thought through fully.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Well, if the implication draws you to the conclusion that oil isn't a scarce commodity, that shocks, fears, and fearmongering crap sites like peakoil.org aren't just the province of some kooks but are an effective OPEC marketing tool, I'm with ya buddy.
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