What will we do when the oil starts to run out?

[Dinner]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Not everything. If we manage to stay on the carbon economy for another 100 years we might well find out that the oil supply will get relatively inelastic by then. And that could be trouble, given that the demand will also be inelastic in the short run...

Oil can be made from coal and the known coal reserves are many, many, many times that of known oil reserves. Then there are the bio fuels and even oil which can be made from organic wastes such as slaughter house remains or even sewage. We will never run out of oil though the price will undoubtably rise as the most accessable reserves are used up.

The ideal solution is nuclear power which is used to produce hydrogen but that depends upon a safe way of sequestering the hydrogen so that every car wreck doesn't turn into a mini hydrogen bomb.

[JohnT]

What forecasts are those? Even estimates of oil growth over the next 20+ years range from 1.4% growth to 2.3% growth. Even 2.3% growth won't require us to "add a new Saudi Arabia" every 5 years... not even close.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/

[Dinner]

The current high prices of gasoline (aside from the temperary decline in output along the gulf coast due to storm damage) isn't really because of a shortage of oil. It has more to do with a shortage of refining capacity since China, India, and Latin America are seeing demand spike. There is of course a lag between when prices rise and when companies decide to invest drilling new wells and getting them into production.

This lag is likely to increase in the coming decades since instead of just drilling new wells on the land it will mean constructing a whole new off shore platform which takes years to build and get in place.

[Jaakko]

Originally posted by JohnT
What forecasts are those? Even estimates of oil growth over the next 20+ years range from 1.4% growth to 2.3% growth. Even 2.3% growth won't require us to "add a new Saudi Arabia" every 5 years... not even close.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/

What does SA produce, a bit over 10 million barrels per day? At 2%, a bit under 10 years is another SA, if I'm not incorrect. The main point I'm driving at is, how much can the world's oil production be accelerated on a lasting basis?

[DanS]

More to the point, the price runup has more to do with a shortage of refining capacity for heavy oil. Saudi Arabia has a couple million barrels a day spare capacity in production in heavy crude.

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Jaakko


What does SA produce, a bit over 10 million barrels per day? At 2%, a bit under 10 years is another SA, if I'm not incorrect. The main point I'm driving at is, how much can the world's oil production be accelerated on a lasting basis?

How much do you need?

[Jaakko]

Originally posted by JohnT


How much do you need?

You're saying that the oil supply and the means to get it out are effectively unlimited?

[JohnT]

Of course not, but you surely don't expect the open-ended conditions offered by your question ... "accelerated on a lasting basis"... to be true forever, do you?

However, the known supply of oil, conventional and unconventional, at current prices and technology, is more than sufficient to meet current projected needs for the majority of the next century.

Which is all that matters, isn't it?

[Jaakko]

Originally posted by JohnT
Of course not, but you surely don't expect the open-ended conditions offered by your question ... "accelerated on a lasting basis"... to be true forever, do you?

However, the known supply of oil, conventional and unconventional, at current prices and technology, is more than sufficient to meet current projected needs for the majority of the next century.

Which is all that matters, isn't it?

Fair enough. Do you know if there's a list somewhere of new oil fields coming online in the near future?

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by Oerdin


Oil can be made from coal and the known coal reserves are many, many, many times that of known oil reserves. Then there are the bio fuels and even oil which can be made from organic wastes such as slaughter house remains or even sewage. We will never run out of oil

We will most certainly run out of oil if we keep using it at the current rate. I don't know if it will be in 100 years, 1000 or 10 000, but something will eventually have to give.

The ideal solution is nuclear power which is used to produce hydrogen but that depends upon a safe way of sequestering the hydrogen so that every car wreck doesn't turn into a mini hydrogen bomb.

I hope you're kidding.

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Jaakko


Fair enough. Do you know if there's a list somewhere of new oil fields coming online in the near future?

No. Do you have a list of next Tuesday's stock quotes?

[Jaakko]

I was just wondering, surely they must be somewhere to give you such certainty on there being plenty of oil available for the next 100 years. Do you have any other handy cite for the optimism?

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Oerdin
Oil can be made from coal and the known coal reserves are many, many, many times that of known oil reserves. Then there are the bio fuels and even oil which can be made from organic wastes such as slaughter house remains or even sewage. We will never run out of oil though the price will undoubtably rise as the most accessable reserves are used up.

The ideal solution is nuclear power which is used to produce hydrogen but that depends upon a safe way of sequestering the hydrogen so that every car wreck doesn't turn into a mini hydrogen bomb.

Why wouldn't you just produce the hydrogen elsewhere and put it in the car as fuel?

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
I hope you're kidding.

I gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed that he wasn't thinking that mere hydrogen would somehow spontaneously fuse and explode, and that somehow the nuclear generator would cause it. Not that that's particularly more intelligent.

[DanS]

Originally posted by Jaakko
I was just wondering, surely they must be somewhere to give you such certainty on there being plenty of oil available for the next 100 years. Do you have any other handy cite for the optimism?

US Oil shale total known reserves are about 2.5 trillion barrels, little of which is economically recoverable using today's technology.

Canadian tar sands total known reserves are also about 2.5 trillion barrels, about 300 billion of which is economically recoverable using today's technology.