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  • #16
    They are getting into the print advertising business. Admittedly, I don't have a feel for how successful they might be in that field.

    One thing to note is that the major advertisers in the Global Fortune 1000 started to buy this year whereas they didn't last year too much.

    Also, it's not necessarily that they have more users, but their existing users are using them for more stuff. Mail, maps, etc.
    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Sava
      what does google sell?
      Advertisement space.
      Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by DanS
        They are getting into the print advertising business. Admittedly, I don't have a feel for how successful they might be in that field.
        Print advertising is pretty crowded and developed already. It will take a lot more investments to break into that.

        One thing to note is that the major advertisers in the Global Fortune 1000 started to buy this year whereas they didn't last year too much.
        Because of rational calculations, or (at least partly) because they're drawn to the hype and want to be associated with it?

        Also, it's not necessarily that they have more users, but their existing users are using them for more stuff. Mail, maps, etc.
        Each of which have their own costs. 2 gig email accounts and Google Earth must be eating broadband width. Too bad we aren't getting a breakdown for those.
        Last edited by Colon™; October 21, 2005, 11:15.
        DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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        • #19
          They have a P/E of 99? A market cap of $100 billion?! This is the nineties all over again.
          DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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          • #20
            Consistent growth in the 100% region will get you a P/E of 99. There's no magic involved.

            But it's not 99. More like 65, using this qtr x 4.

            Did they have a blowout quarter, or not? Did they have a blowout quarter last quarter, or not?
            Last edited by DanS; October 21, 2005, 11:35.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Colon
              Because of rational calculations, or (at least partly) because they're drawn to the hype and want to be associated with it?
              I don't know. Ming may have a better feel for this. He has been complimentary of Google in the past.

              Each of which have their own costs. 2 gig email accounts and Google Earth must be eating broadband width. Too bad we aren't getting a breakdown for those.
              I don't think the costs of these services are a big concern. Definitely bread and butter to Google (something they will have to execute on), but no concern.
              I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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              • #22
                bandwidth and disk drives are cheap, and getting cheaper.
                “It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”

                ― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of Man​

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                • #23
                  I've been hoping that Google would hang in there at around $300 until the timing was right to sell something else (and pick it up). I guess I'll have to wait for another time.
                  We need seperate human-only games for MP/PBEM that dont include the over-simplifications required to have a good AI
                  If any man be thirsty, let him come unto me and drink. Vampire 7:37
                  Just one old soldiers opinion. E Tenebris Lux. Pax quaeritur bello.

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by DanS
                    Consistent growth in the 100% region will get you a P/E of 99. There's no magic involved.

                    But it's not 99. More like 65, using this qtr x 4.

                    Did they have a blowout quarter, or not? Did they have a blowout quarter last quarter, or not?
                    Consistent growth of 100% implies Google will have annual sales of $24 billion ending 2007, $48 billion ending 2008 and $96 billion ending 2009.

                    The rate of growth in fact had roughly been halving every year since 2002, except 2005: http://investor.google.com/fin_data.html

                    I don't think the costs of these services are a big concern. Definitely bread and butter to Google (something they will have to execute on), but no concern.
                    I'm sure they can carry the costs, but the question is if they're in line with ad revenues.
                    DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                    • #25
                      Has anyone here actually clicked on a link at Google?

                      I know they sell ad space but is the price really worth it? Could the ad dollars not be better spent elsewhere?
                      "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
                      "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark Twain

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                      • #26
                        The rate of growth in fact had roughly been halving every year since 2002, except 2005
                        I hear you. I had a suitable declining rate of growth in my quickie financial model of Google that came to a fair price of about $80 a share at IPO.

                        http://carriedaway.blogs.com/carried_away/files/google_npv.xls
                        Last edited by DanS; October 21, 2005, 15:25.
                        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                        Comment

                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Wezil
                          Has anyone here actually clicked on a link at Google?

                          I know they sell ad space but is the price really worth it? Could the ad dollars not be better spent elsewhere?
                          It is said that Google gets 20% of searches to click on the paid results, a rate double that of any other search service.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                          • #28
                            I suspect Google ad revenues are having an effect similar to those in football teams. When a football team is doing well it also sees ad revenues jump. Nothing wrong with that, who knows the Google boys are consciously trying to create this effect, but you shouldn't expect it to last.
                            DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by DanS


                              It is said that Google gets 20% of searches to click on the paid results, a rate double that of any other search service.
                              1 in 5 would be impressive. I'm not a computer geek so I don't know of these things.

                              I know I rarely if ever click advertising links on websites.
                              "I have never killed a man, but I have read many obituaries with great pleasure." - Clarence Darrow
                              "I didn't attend the funeral, but I sent a nice letter saying I approved of it." - Mark Twain

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                              • #30
                                Colon: Read above. Apparently, they're getting mad click-through rates.

                                Take a look at my simple NPV calculator. 20% annual increase decay. 30% net margins. 20% discount rate. An $80 billion company.

                                1 in 5 would be impressive. I'm not a computer geek so I don't know of these things.
                                Sounds impressive to me, too.
                                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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