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To flog away at a dead horse, I note that the NPV calculation is very sensitive to the rate of sales increase decay. A 20% decay rate and the company is worth over $80 billion. A 22% decay rate and the company is worth under $60 billion. An 18% decay rate and the company is worth about $125 billion. All using a 20% discount rate.
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I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891 -
Most people who use the internet are not computer literate. Notice how the "Sponsored links" is in subtle grey, and the sponsored links on the right are the same formating and colouring as the search results on the left?Originally posted by Wezil
1 in 5 would be impressive. I'm not a computer geek so I don't know of these things.
I know I rarely if ever click advertising links on websites.
Many people can't tell the difference. I have read about some research that said that in fact most can't.Attached FilesComment
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BTW DanS, I didn't know you had a blog. I'm checking it out.Comment
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yes, but look at your post. You searched on "buy house". The sponsored links on the right look like a much better match than the first 2 Amazon links.“It is no use trying to 'see through' first principles. If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.”
― C.S. Lewis, The Abolition of ManComment
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Didn't you know that everybody has a blog these days?
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Vetlegion, what screen size you have? I wasn't aware the two close were that close to each other people's screens. (I barely even notice them)Attached FilesDISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Today, GOOG has a market capitalization of $105 billion, after only 7 years of being in business, some of which was in the Google boys dorm room and some in a garage.
Each of the Google boys is now worth about $13 billion on paper.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Originally posted by Colon
This is the nineties all over again.Comment
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Except, well, Google actually turns a profit.Comment
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VetLegion, are you looking to buy a house? Why not build your own?
I've got some prime real-estate in Florida I could let you have for a song!
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A salient point.Originally posted by Kuciwalker
Except, well, Google actually turns a profit.He's got the Midas touch.
But he touched it too much!
Hey Goldmember, Hey Goldmember!Comment
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Plenty of IT bubbleites turned a profit back then. The problem was that the market value was grossly out of proportion to the size of the profits. (JDS Uniphase anyone?)DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Yes, but just put Google's earnings into a simple NPV calculation, like I have done above, and I think it wouldn't be proper to say that Google's market value is grossly out of proportion. If you don't agree, then give us your assumptions.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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You sure your figures are correct? Assuming a predicted EPS of $5.86 for 2005 you get $1.6 billion net income, not the $890 million you got in your spreadsheet.
Anyhow, the expected EPS for 2005 is $5.86, and at the current price of $356 a share, that's a P/E of 60. Assuming a P/E between 10 and 15, the market is reckoning between $6.4 billion and $9.6 billion in net income. With a constant net profit marging of 25% that's between $25 billion and $40 billion in revenues.
This while they're not gaining market share in their core business (search engines) and Yahoo only has a P/E of 33.
I don't need to know much more.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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