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You sure your figures are correct? Assuming a predicted EPS of $5.86 for 2005 you get $1.6 billion net income, not the $890 million you got in your spreadsheet.
But don't take my word for it, do the NPV on your own calculator.
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The spreadsheet was made before the IPO. So the assumptions you enter have to fit the reality as it stands right now.
But don't take my word for it, do the NPV on your own calculator.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891 -
Rather, they are gaining market share.This while they're not gaining market share in their core business (search engines)
Totally doable in the advertising market. But I don't think a 10-15 P/E is where GOOG 's going to land. More like 20, where MSFT stands.With a constant net profit marging of 25% that's between $25 billion and $40 billion in revenues.Last edited by DanS; October 27, 2005, 17:02.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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According to the first source, market share is levelling off. According to the 2nd it gained 2.1% the past 2 months but the rate of growth is slowing. According to the 3rd it gained 1.2% compared to last year. None of these indicate stellar growth in the future.
Ok, tell me how Google will gobble up the advertisement flows currently going to TV channels, radio stations, news papers, magazines, billboards, public transit, sports teams, flyers and what else.Totally doable in the advertising market.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Google doesn't have to do all of that. Indeed, it's not tough to imagine Google growing the total ad market pie to offset its share, considering that Google's ads are considered to be particularly effective and it is a global player.
Advertising figures are all over the map. BW puts it at more than half a trillion dollars worldwide. Ad Age puts it at a trillion dollars, including all marketing activities.Last edited by DanS; October 27, 2005, 17:38.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Particularly effective for certain market components, like e-commerce sites. I doubt Toyota is going to present its latest model on Google any time soon, for instance.
Seriously, the scales you're using are mangled. By that kind of reasoning I can argue MS doesn't really have a monopoly because Windows constitutes only a small part of the global IT market.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Do a search for Toyota in Google. In my search, the top advertisement is for Fitzgerald Auto Mall, a local Toyota dealership in Maryland. So you can see that Google at least indirectly gets its meal ticket from Toyota.Originally posted by Colon
Particularly effective for certain market components, like e-commerce sites. I doubt Toyota is going to present its latest model on Google any time soon, for instance.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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And poly can grow into a multibillion company because the ads for Amazon around here are really indirect ads for the hundreds of companies that sell their wares through it.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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I'm not sure I see your point, considering that Poly doesn't have the click-through rates of Google, doesn't have the traffic of Google, doesn't seem to place ads particularly directed toward me and my circumstances, and Amazon.com is an online business rather than a brick-and-mortar business like Fitzgerald Auto Mall.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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It's your reasoning of "that ad for a shop is really an ad for Toyota" I'm at. I'm sorry, but you're using awfully mangled reasoning to justify pie-in-the-sky expectations.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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This is really a pointless argument we're having, but I note that Fitzgerald Auto Mall is a marketing franchise of Toyota, not your normal mom and pop shop selling Coke, like 100s of others selling the same on a street.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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It's an ad for an outlet where you can buy Toyotas. They're placing the ad in order to draw customers to their shop, not to promote the brand. As I've said, it may effective for certain types of business, but its quite a stretch to assume it will be effective for every kind of business.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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You're losing me here. Who said it would be particularly effective for every kind of business, or indeed all portions of a particular business? You're reading into what I'm saying way too much.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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What are you doing citing that half a trillion dollar figure then? Obviously, the potential market for Google is much smaller.DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.Comment
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Obviously, it's smaller, but I'm having trouble understanding your logic. Toyota branding is a potential market for Google. It might not get a lot of the branding business, but it's still a potential market. Indeed, it might even be particularly effective in branding, but we just don't know it yet.
Meanwhile, a good chunk of the local TV news ad budget from Fitzgerald Auto Mall based on the Toyota brand is going over to Google. Fitzgerald Auto Mall is very much a brick-and-mortar operation, not an e-commerce site (the market to which you tried to pigeonhole Google's effectiveness).Last edited by DanS; October 27, 2005, 19:09.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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how did google become so popular? what happened to yahoo?I need a foot massageComment
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