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The Coming Oil Apocalypse

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  • #46
    Originally posted by MosesPresley

    ?

    and

    The Hirsch report has no truck with those who believe in the magic of the markets. "High prices do not a priori lead to greater production. Geology is ultimately the limiting factor." There are plenty of oil shales, tar sands and coal seams available for turning into liquid fuels, but it would take years and a massive investment before enough came online.
    that IS the magic of the markets. If the price is high enough the investment is justified. There may well be a time delay - there are many investments like that, which is why some markets have cyclical booms and busts, cause it takes time for investment to react to price.

    Now it may well be that quantity demanded will be reduced by price before quantity supplied is increased.

    As for NG, that was so cheap before its run up that it was inducing shifts to NG from other fuels, IIUC.
    "A person cannot approach the divine by reaching beyond the human. To become human, is what this individual person, has been created for.” Martin Buber

    Comment

    • #47
      Originally posted by DanS
      I was answering to your criticisms with my post.

      As to Monbiot, let's look at it this way. The economy can buy one big futures contract on oil. If the futures contract costs a lot of money, then people will be incentivized to develop alternatives in order to reduce the uncertainty of when we run out of oil. However, Monbiot is assuming that the futures contract is and will forever be more expensive than developing alternatives, because we don't know when the oil will run out. It's a bad assumption. It's bad logic.

      Should we have been spending money in the year 1900 for alternatives to oil, simply because we didn't know when oil would run out? Of course not. We had a resource, so we used it to its fullest, and enjoyed ourselves while doing so.
      We don't know what day and hour the last drop of economically recoverable oil will be used up. This doesn't mean that we don't know that won't be tomorrow, nor that there won't be advance warning when oil is about to get prohibitively expensive. The ignorance you apparently think Monbiot is right to accept doesn't exist in any meaningful sense.
      Why can't you be a non-conformist just like everybody else?

      It's no good (from an evolutionary point of view) to have the physique of Tarzan if you have the sex drive of a philosopher. -- Michael Ruse
      The Nedaverse I can accept, but not the Berzaverse. There can only be so many alternate realities. -- Elok

      Comment

      • #48
        I didn't understand that post. You've got too many triple negatives going on. Could you rephrase?
        I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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        • #49
          Are you pulling my leg? Anyway:

          You said, apparently approvingly, that Monbiot accepts that we don't know when oil will run out. We do know, however, that it won't run out tomorrow, and we know if would run out suddenly, but become progressively scarcer till it becomes uneconomical, which process will be quite noticeable. This is all we need to know; knowing today the exact day the last drop of petroleum will be recovered is only of academic interest.
          Why can't you be a non-conformist just like everybody else?

          It's no good (from an evolutionary point of view) to have the physique of Tarzan if you have the sex drive of a philosopher. -- Michael Ruse
          The Nedaverse I can accept, but not the Berzaverse. There can only be so many alternate realities. -- Elok

          Comment

          • #50
            Are you pulling my leg?
            No. Who besides you uses triple negatives and thinks everybody can divine the meaning of his post?

            that it won't run out tomorrow
            Yes, this is apparent.

            and we know if would run out suddenly
            Yes, we know it will not run out suddenly.

            but become progressively scarcer till it becomes uneconomical
            We do not know that it will be become progressively scarcer on any meaningful investment timeframe (i.e., when the geological scarcity converges with the supply scarcity). The market will signal scarcity and we will move to alternatives as needed. The market is giving us a modest nudge right now.
            Last edited by DanS; October 3, 2005, 18:02.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

            Comment

            • #51
              Originally posted by DanS


              No. Who besides you uses triple negatives and thinks everybody can divine the meaning of his post?
              Rumsfeld.

              Who said anything about everybody? You've never struck me as one who has trouble with complex synatx. Excuse my surprise.
              We do not know that it will be become progressively scarcer on any meaningful investment timeframe (i.e., when the geological scarcity converges with the supply scarcity).
              I'm not sure what's your point here. Oil is a, for all practical purposes, non-renewable resource, and will eventually be used up, or rather all that can be economically recovered will be used up.
              The market will signal scarcity and we will move to alternatives as needed. The market is giving us a modest nudge right now.
              Indeed.

              To recap, Monbiot is wrong not because the oil might last for a thousand years, but because it won't run out next year.
              Why can't you be a non-conformist just like everybody else?

              It's no good (from an evolutionary point of view) to have the physique of Tarzan if you have the sex drive of a philosopher. -- Michael Ruse
              The Nedaverse I can accept, but not the Berzaverse. There can only be so many alternate realities. -- Elok

              Comment

              • #52
                He's wrong on both accounts.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

                Comment

                • #53
                  @DanS: You have an odd attitude to risk.
                  Why can't you be a non-conformist just like everybody else?

                  It's no good (from an evolutionary point of view) to have the physique of Tarzan if you have the sex drive of a philosopher. -- Michael Ruse
                  The Nedaverse I can accept, but not the Berzaverse. There can only be so many alternate realities. -- Elok

                  Comment

                  • #54
                    Originally posted by lord of the mark


                    that IS the magic of the markets. If the price is high enough the investment is justified. There may well be a time delay - there are many investments like that, which is why some markets have cyclical booms and busts, cause it takes time for investment to react to price.

                    Now it may well be that quantity demanded will be reduced by price before quantity supplied is increased.

                    As for NG, that was so cheap before its run up that it was inducing shifts to NG from other fuels, IIUC.
                    What I think he is saying is that it doesn't matter if the price goes up, even if it goes up astonomically, if there is no oil to get or if it is too expensive to get to, the market will not be able to help.
                    "In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed. But they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love. They had 500 years of democracy and peace. And what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."
                    —Orson Welles as Harry Lime

                    Comment

                    • #55
                      don't worry we can always extract an infinite supply of oil from asteroids...

                      Comment

                      • #56
                        Originally posted by Last Conformist
                        @DanS: You have an odd attitude to risk.



                        He doesn't bite on apocalypse scenarios such as "no more oil in five years" (there hs been several such that claimed that we would run out in the mid 80'ies).

                        He thinks that currently known ressources are sufficient for several decades and that their efficiency can be improved.

                        He thinks that when prices goes up, then alternatives will be attractive.

                        It's a little difficult to say about DanS, but I'll say it's a sound and practical attitude .
                        With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                        Steven Weinberg

                        Comment

                        • #57
                          Originally posted by korn469
                          don't worry we can always extract an infinite supply of oil from asteroids...


                          I'm actually more interested in the deuterium and tritium reserves on the moon when fusion power becomes a reality.
                          With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                          Steven Weinberg

                          Comment

                          • #58
                            Blackcat you did read some the things in the thread i linked to right?

                            Comment

                            • #59
                              Originally posted by korn469
                              Blackcat you did read some the things in the thread i linked to right?


                              Actually, no. The concept of driling after oil on asteroids or for that matter, how the hell oil should have gotten there made me think that the seriousity could be less than average .

                              I was a bit more serious since a local fusion professor has stated that there are plenty of deuterium and tritium on the moon to pick when we have used the plaents reserves.
                              With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.

                              Steven Weinberg

                              Comment

                              • #60
                                Originally posted by BlackCat

                                He doesn't bite on apocalypse scenarios such as "no more oil in five years" (there hs been several such that claimed that we would run out in the mid 80'ies).
                                "Apocalypse" was the bait. I simply wanted a conversation about the coming energy crisis and what it will be like to live in a society without oil.

                                The oil will run out. It is just a matter of when. With China and India starting to increase their oil demand, I fear it may be sooner than later. I do not envision a doomsday scenario, but I certainly see a huge shift in the way that we will go about our daily lives when the oil supply does run low.
                                "In Italy for 30 years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed. But they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love. They had 500 years of democracy and peace. And what did that produce? The cuckoo clock."
                                —Orson Welles as Harry Lime

                                Comment

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