The Coming Oil Apocalypse

[MosesPresley]

What happens when the cheap oil runs out?

From what I have been reading, oil will cost too much to extract and burn it within one generation.

What will be the effects on society, suburbia, farming, international travel, cities, and industry?

Will it cause a massive crisis of confidence in our leaders and plummet us into a new dark age?

Will our leaders compensate for the coming cultural psychosis at home for some international military mischief?

America's automobile culture will be dealt its final deathblow. What if anything will replace it? An upside to this will be that the vast parking lot deserts will be reclaimed.

As gas prices rise, suburbia will become too expensive to maintain and eventually it will have to be abandoned for the cities. The suburbs will return to their agricultural origins. We will need to salvage what we can from the abandoned infrastructure.

The cities will reintegrate and public transportation will become the primary means of getting around. In cities this is already true, but for the new suburban immigres this will come as a rude culture shock.

But the real hit will be to our industries and farming. How will a lack of cheap oil affect how industry operates and our jobs?

[DanS]

From what I have been reading, oil will cost too much to extract and burn it within one generation.

I don't think these people know what they're talking about. Likely, it will be 3 or 4 generations at the earliest.

People enjoy writing doomsday scenarios and talking about them. It is a silly aspect of human nature.

[KrazyHorse]

The cheap oil has already "run out", in that its supply is insufficient to meet world demand.

Moderately expensive oil will continue for the foreseeable future.

Expensive oil will kick in in 50 years or so, assuming we continue to operate in the same way we do now.

[Saras]

Atomic power, atomic power,
was given by the mighty hand of God.

[Thue]

If oil prices stay at their current level there are a number of alternative forms of energy which becomes economical or more economical, fx nuclear, wind, solar.

There are also some fossil fuels which are economical if the current prices stay: oil shale (reserves comparable to reserves of oil), and coal liquefaction. Especially coal liquefaction seems to render even the current level of prices unsustainably high, and since there is plenty of coal, oil supply doesn't seem to be a problem in the first few generations.

See also http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_energy_development

[:) Smiley]

Well, right now there is so much fat in American oil consumption that prices could rise and consumption could drop by quite a bit before any major lifestyle changes would be required.

[Odin]

Originally posted by DanS


I don't think these people know what they're talking about. Likely, it will be 3 or 4 generations at the earliest.

People enjoy writing doomsday scenarios and talking about them. It is a silly aspect of human nature.

Denial ain't just a river in Egypt...

[Dr. Nick]

It's the oilpocalypse.

[Eli]

We need more nuclear power.

[Asher]

Originally posted by Odin
Denial ain't just a river in Egypt...

It's true. Technology is improving rapidly allowing us to more economically tap reserves which were previously unusable.

Alberta alone has something like 1.6 trillion barrels of oil in the ground that we're just now starting to understand how to efficiently obtain (hence the massive investments in the oil sands).

There are similar kinds of oil that we're now figuring out how to get to, there's an entire research building on campus here with PhDs that look into that kind of stuff exclusively.

We're nowhere near running out of oil for this generation, let alone our grandchildren's oil. We'll probably run out of the trivial oil reserves (with the lame pumpjacks) our generation, though.

The whining about oil running out even in the 70s was laughable, and since then the amount of usable oil known has increased...

[Asher]

Not to mention the abundance of oil discoveries recently in South America...

[KrazyHorse]

Which is why the price is going to slowly rise instead of catastrophically.

As time goes on, we're going to need more oil, not less.

As time goes on the really cheap oil disappears.

Extraction technology helps, but not enough.

[Asher]

Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Which is why the price is going to slowly rise instead of catastrophically.

As time goes on, we're going to need more oil, not less.

As time goes on the really cheap oil disappears.

Extraction technology helps, but not enough.

Oil prices will likely rise for a while, and slowly people will transition to other sources of energy.

These doomsday/apocalypse scenarios are incredibly stupid.

[KrazyHorse]

Duh.

It's not like oil is our only source of energy.

200$ a barrel oil doesn't make any sense because at that level solar, wind and nuclear energy will certainly take over the generation business, while electric and fuel cell cars will take the transportation business.

I'd rather not let us be unprepared, though. We need more and sustained alternate energy research to lower the point at which they become economical alternatives.

[Asher]

What's funny to me is Alberta is the leader in the country when it comes to wind power.

Our LRT system is 100% emission-free from Wind-farm generators, for instance. You can pay a premium from the power company and get all of your power from a Wind-farm as well.

Wind-generated power capacity in Canada: