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[DanS]

You could come to the same conclusion by looking at strength of schedule and margin of loss. Doesn't sound too out of the bounds of sanity.

According to what Sagarin believes is his most accurate predictor of what would happen in a future matchup, both OSU and ND would beat Miami. Then again, VaTech would as well.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Then again, VaTech would as well.

Exactly .

Which is why I don't put much stock in 'predictor' ratings .

[Apocalypse]

Nah, VaTech is overrrated.

[Drake Tungsten]

I had been refraining from posting my own poll as I can't watch games here and didn't think I was qualified. I've realized I can't do worse than some of the other polls here, however, so here you go...

1. Texas
2. USC
3. Miami
4. Penn State
5. Virginia Tech
6. Oregon
7. LSU
8. UCLA
9. Alabama
10. Ohio State

[reismark]

THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 5

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking.

1. Southern California [1, 1, 2]
2. Texas [2, 2, 1]
3. Miami [3, 3, 5] (+1)
4. Penn State [5, 5, 3] (+1)
5. Louisiana State [4, 4, 8] (+2)
6. Virginia Tech [7, 6, 4]
7. Ohio State [9, 9, 6] (+1)
8. Alabama [8, 8, 9] (-5)
9. Notre Dame [6, 7, 13] (+2)
10. Oregon [10, 10, 7]
11. California-Los Angeles [12, 11, 12] (+4)
12. West Virginia [14, 13, 10] (+2)

-----

All hail the SEC. Two tremendous games leave an undelible mark both on the fans who watched them and on the BCS standings, which just got a lot more interesting since we no longer have to focus on the "Who should be #1 and #2?" question. (This is, of course, assuming that USC & Texas both win out, which I still have my doubts about especially with regards to USC - that game against Fresno State this coming weekend has the words "trap game" stamped all over it.)

Notre Dame continues to move in the right direction as the gap between the humans and computers continues to get smaller and smaller. All Irish eyes will be on the Big Game this weekend, where all Irish voices will be rooting loudly and hard for the maize & blue. A Wolverines win not only knocks off another team ahead in the BCS standings from the Irish, but also improves the Irish's strength of schedule (and thus, their standing with the computers).

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected automatic conference berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

ACC: Miami
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Louisiana State
At-Large #1: Virginia Tech (ACC)
At-Large #2: Ohio State (Big Ten)

-----

Other big games on tap this week other than the Big Game: USC/Fresno, Penn State/Michigan State (as the Nittany Lions look to be the first team to officially clinch a spot in the big dance), and a little get-together in the SEC that I like to call the Iron Bowl, as Auburn attempts to come out of nowhere to make it back into the BCS for the second year in a row. As usual, I'll be on the side of the Tigers in this one.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Penn State v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Louisiana State v. Virginia Tech
Orange Bowl: Miami v. Ohio State

Pac-10 champion Southern California & Big 12 champion Texas are automatically placed into the Rose Bowl due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. ACC champion Miami is placed into the Orange Bowl and SEC champion Louisiana State is placed into the Sugar Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins. The only bowl to lose a traditional tie-in is the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champion Texas) so it gets first choice of the remaining teams. Usually, the selections to fill the remaining slots after the national championship game and the traditional conference tie-ins are done in accord with BCS rankings, meaning that the Fiesta would select Big Ten champion Penn State as its first representative.

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's payout and its priority stature in previous years. (Each bowl submits a list of its top three teams, and the bowl is given the highest-listed team available based on the bowl's priority.) The BCS has established the following priority order based on these factors for this year's bowls:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits. Since Big East champion West Virginia is the only conference champion not allocated and trails ACC at-large Virginia Tech and SEC at-large Louisiana State in the BCS rankings, they would be ranked second on all lists and thus be allocated to the Fiesta Bowl. Finally, since BCS representatives would not want to match teams from the same conference, Ohio State would be selected by the Orange Bowl and Virginia Tech would be selected by the Sugar Bowl, despite their BCS rankings dictating the opposite.

[DanS]

where all Irish voices will be rooting loudly and hard for the maize & blue

Are you crazy? I'm from Ohio. Screw the BCS rankings. No way I'm rooting for the Wolverines over OSU.

[Guynemer]

GO BLUE!

[gjramsey]

Here are my rankings:

1. Texas
2. USC
3. Miami
4. LSU
5. Penn State
6. Notre Dame
7. Ohio State
8. Auburn
9. Virginia Tech
10. Oregon

[Ming]

continued...

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