Turkey (So Long & Goodnight)

[atawa]

Originally posted by Ancyrean

However, since the EU has no responsible mechanism for crafting foreign policy, and in the light of the mess it helped create, it cannot help but try to boil the Cyprus issue down to a procedural list of requirements totally unrelated to the realities and the nature of the Cyprus problem.

Now how can we let you in if you're occupying part of one of our current members?

And the fact the gouverment simply denies the genocide against the Armenians doesnt help.

[Spiffor]

I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey's stance in thie OP was actually an exit door. Turkey's entry in the EU is very unpopular in Europe, and the trend leans toward a rising opposition about it.

Besides, two of the main supporters of Turkey's entry (Chirac and Schröder) are weakened at home, and thus they can't push for this personal position of theirs as strongly as they did before. Turkey finds itself significantly less supported within the EU decision process.

Also, the EU demands that every member-State agrees with any new member joining. generally, the Parliament does this, but France is supposed to hold a referendum and it will reject Turkey (if the current trend remains the same). Besides, considering how sensitive the issue is, I wouldn't be surprised if other European countries held referendums as well.

It's not only the people who reject Turkey (out of racism, out of fear, out of the idea that the UE is a Christian club, out of the idea that Turkey doesn't belong geographically or whatever). There are also many Eurocrats, even the ones most enthusiastic for the European idea, who are opposed to a further enlargement in general, and to an elargement to Turkey in particular:

In the EU, there are two opposite dynamics: Enlarging the EU, and deepening it. We have just had our most ambitious enlargement: 10 countries, 80 million people who have a very different standard of living and a fairly different worldview than western Europe. The economic growth of these countries is costly to western Europe, whether wealth is transmitted by institutions (infrastructure funds) or by the market (trade balance, direct investment). It will probably last a whole generation before these countries match the western standards of living.

Politically speaking, the EU institutions weren't ready at all for dealing with 25 members (they already sucked for 15 members). Especially as several of the new members just won't take a backseat, like Poland. The EU constitution intended to streamline the political processes (but it sucked at doing so anyway), and it is now dead. The politicial deepening of the EU will probably not begin again for a decade or so.

For these reasons, Eurocrats can see the enlargement to Turkey as an undertaking for which the EU isn't ready yet. As an idea that is fundamentally untimely, and probably for a very long time to come.



In face of all these different oppositions, the Turkish government has probably understood that Turkey has very little chance to join during the current negociation circle, if it has any chance at all.
Also, they might now be interested in the often-brandished alternative: Turkey is to belong to very close economic ties to the EU (basically, something very similar as the economic perks of actually being in the EU), without formal membership. Such a solution, while it's not the same symbol as joining the EU, would avoid many many headaches.

[Bereta_Eder]

Originally posted by Winston
If Greece should be scolded/isolated, it should be for its obstructive and harassing behaviour surrounding Macedonia at a time when this new nation was struggling for recognition from the international community. An absolute disgrace that was.

I used to think the greek opposition was based on concrete facts such as the articles in skopje (=FYROM) constitution calling for liberation of macedonia. I used to think it was secondarily used for internal political purposes to spice up the national feeling and get votes.
i used to think a lot of things and most were right.
what i didnt know was the recent history of macedonia before and after the collapse of the ottoman empire.
nd now i can say safely there is no chance in hell this country is going anywhere with the name republic of macedonia. a country has to do what it has to do to protect its future generations from squabbles especially if it is situated in the balkans. sorry if others dont understand. it would be good if they did of course, but that requires to have time devoded to the issue and simply read unbiased history about macedonia, komitatzides etc etc

[Bereta_Eder]

I'm back from my holidays btw hello!

[Bereta_Eder]

i remain in favor of a full turkish membership btw when and if turkey fulfills all the criteria. but in all honesty what i see happening is a "special relationship"

[alva]

Spiffor.

[Pekka]

bereta_eder, you mean one of those special relationships seen in midnight express? That's cool but as long as you are William Hayes and I get to watch.

[Bereta_Eder]

ahhh poly...

actually it would beinteresting to start talking what this special relationship would be. i'm guessing it will be exactly what it is now. maybe no taxes to and from. but there will be no participation in decision making process. maybe but that's far too soon to be talking about, if there ever is a common defense policy turkey will be a part of it somehow. that's as far as i can see it. well based on as things are now, which were wholesomelly detailed in Spiff's post.

[Pekka]

thank you for deciding these things for all of us my Greek King .

I say NO!

We let the girls out but the men stay. That's it. End of discussion.

[Bereta_Eder]

You're welcome subject. You can kiss my pingy.

[VetLegion]

i used to think a lot of things and most were right.
what i didnt know was the recent history of macedonia before and after the collapse of the ottoman empire.

Think again. Macedonia was always harmless to Greece and is even more so now that the Albanian problem has escalated. Greek embargo back in the nineties was a shameful act.

nd now i can say safely there is no chance in hell this country is going anywhere with the name republic of macedonia.

US state department thinks otherwise and calls it Macedonia officially (I think).

[Bereta_Eder]

Originally posted by VetLegion

i used to think a lot of things and most were right.
what i didnt know was the recent history of macedonia before and after the collapse of the ottoman empire.

Think again. Macedonia was always harmless to Greece and is even more so now that the Albanian problem has escalated. Greek embargo back in the nineties was a shameful act.

nd now i can say safely there is no chance in hell this country is going anywhere with the name republic of macedonia.

US state department thinks otherwise and calls it Macedonia officially (I think).

1. eh? what about the bulgarian komitazides as early as the 19th century advocating unification of the geographic region of macedonia with bulgaria? or the other fraction of theirs advocating first autonomy and then unification with bulgaria? (btw we are wrong when we call them slavs, they're basically mostly bulgarian)

and if tha's not recent enough for you what about the articles in their contritution in 1990's calling for "liberation of macedonia"?


they changed this after the embargo.


or do you think that just because they don't pose a military threat we should just let them be and just keep going to the beach?

nein. no skpjie with name of macedonia. and the US is not bordering Skpjie nor does it have veto in EU memberhsip or nato (well the latter it has) and it has committed to agree to whatever both countries agree even though of course the US plays their little games in the balkans too


a country's name is its soul and skpjie will not be permitted to have a macedonian soul not just because they dont have it anyway but because if they are let to keep faking it they can cause problems in the long run. of course someone far away can say donkeyheaded greeks and that's ok, he's not the one living here and isn't expected to know anything about it.

[VetLegion]

Spiffor,

The economic growth of these countries is costly to western Europe, whether wealth is transmitted by institutions (infrastructure funds) or by the market (trade balance, direct investment). It will probably last a whole generation before these countries match the western standards of living.

It could take much more than a generation, don't forget old EU economies are growing too. At a slow pace, but growing. New members have to have strong growth for decades to catch up.

And let's not forget that membership itself is not a guarantee that economies of members will converge in the meaning of GDP/capita. Take Greece for example, it is as rich/poor now in relation to other EU countries as she was when she became a member, always floating somewhere between 65-75% of average EU GDP/capita.

[VetLegion]

Bulgarians are Slavs little paiktis, stop learning history from Greek tabloid press or wherever

[Bereta_Eder]

Bulgarians are slavicized mongols my little croat tie. start learning history other than what is in the surface