Will Lance Armstrong take his 7th consecutive Tour de France win?

[Alexander's Horse]

a bit of agro in the sprint? O'grady is a tough rider

Vinokourov is very entertaining but a bit crazy I think

all those sprinters are fiery by nature

[DanS]

This year's tour was rather instructive. It didn't seem like much, but after all was said and done, Armstrong crushed his rivals.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia



would be correct. in fact, i'll bet you $10 that popvych does not win the maillot blanc next year.

I'll actually bet you 1 million that he won't win the maillot blanc next year ( unless there is a rule change)

The deadline this year was January 1 1980. Since Popovych has a birthday of January 4, 1980. I don't think he'll make the cut next year unless he somehow manages to make himself a year younger.

You didn't think I'd catch that did you?


AS for your other statements, citing one or two white jersey winners who have not done well in a subsequent tour is no evidence at all as to how Popovych may do. I don't see Popovych as having winning potential because of the white jersey . . . Instead its because he time-trialled decently (11th place and 17th) and was consistently strong in the mountains despite being primarily in a support role for Armstrong.

I don't know that he can contend, but perhaps if he is annointed leader of a strong team , we could see. I would not count him out.

*** NOte that generally I don't view the "white" as a predictor of future sucess since often one rider wins it because other young riders lose time performing "domestique" roles OR if they go on a long break that no one cares about and other young riders are forced to stay with their teams. Its the same with Popovych-- the white is pretty irrelevant to my view of him as a rider-- Its how he rode, not what he won that is the key.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by DanS
This year's tour was rather instructive. It didn't seem like much, but after all was said and done, Armstrong crushed his rivals.

it WAS another dominanting performance where Armstrong never looked in jeopardy. 2nd and 1st in the ITTs and he rode in the mountains simply to not let any important rival get away. Basso looked his match in the mountains but needed to beat Armstrong there given that he lost time in the Itts

[alva]

Popovych is good but next year is going to be to soon for him, another 2 or 3 and might very well be a contender.
Hyncapie will probaly get the top spot next year in the Discovery team for past services. I don't think he's good enough to win but he does deserve a chance and you'll never know.

[Flubber]

Originally posted by alva
Popovych is good but next year is going to be to soon for him, another 2 or 3 and might very well be a contender.
Hyncapie will probaly get the top spot next year in the Discovery team for past services. I don't think he's good enough to win but he does deserve a chance and you'll never know.

I'm not saying Popovych is good enough to win next year-- Ullrich and Basso will likely be back

Hincapie--hmmm-- good showing this year so perhaps he does deserve a shot, but it may be one of those things where if he falters, there is a plan "B"

[Zopperoni]

They'll have to weigh their chances. Hincapie is a superb spring classic rider, with good chances of winning. He won Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne, finished second in the Hell, and seventh in the Ronde van Vlaanderen.

Make him captain for the Tour, and he'll need to forfeit the spring classics.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

I'll actually bet you 1 million that he won't win the maillot blanc next year ( unless there is a rule change)

The deadline this year was January 1 1980. Since Popovych has a birthday of January 4, 1980. I don't think he'll make the cut next year unless he somehow manages to make himself a year younger.

You didn't think I'd catch that did you?

nah, i didnt think you woulda caught that, honestly.

AS for your other statements, citing one or two white jersey winners who have not done well in a subsequent tour is no evidence at all as to how Popovych may do. I don't see Popovych as having winning potential because of the white jersey . . . Instead its because he time-trialled decently (11th place and 17th) and was consistently strong in the mountains despite being primarily in a support role for Armstrong.

heres the problem tho. basso was 6th and 20th and hes considered a poor time trailer, in terms of being able to win the tour. popvych needs to improve on that if he wants to do well. (which he can possibly do, or possibly not do, we still dont know.)

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia



heres the problem tho. basso was 6th and 20th and hes considered a poor time trailer, in terms of being able to win the tour. popvych needs to improve on that if he wants to do well. (which he can possibly do, or possibly not do, we still dont know.)

Thats the problem they all had in trying to beat Lance. Ullrich knew he had to take the time trials since he was unlikely to beat Armstrong in the mountains. Basso was the opposite. Now Basso that "poor timetrialist" was SECOND overall so in an Armstrongless race-- could have been the winner (its not at all certain as many stages would have been quite different)

In a race with no Lance fro the outset, your comparisons are different. Basso and Ullrich will be favorites . . .. Popovych could arguably time-trial comparably with Basso (although he did lose 1'15 to him in the final ITT, he did beat him by a few seconds in the first short TT)-- I don't see either of them beating Ullrich in the ITTs-- So it will come down to the mountains as usual-- Basso will have to be able to get away from Ullrich if he wants to win. A Popovych or Hincapie will need to be able to win in the mountains as well--

For me, my money would be on Basso. He matched Armstrong acceleration for acceleration through the mountains for two years. Until someone else shows they can do that my bet is on Basso. But I see a lot encouraging about Popovych and I would not be suprised at all if he was on the podium next year ( I would be equally unsuprised if it took a couple of years ie if Popovyvh ridea again in a support role next year)

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia


nah, i didnt think you woulda caught that, honestly.

lawyer side coming out-- The age of a "young rider" seemed a natural thing to check

[Flubber]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
(which he can possibly do, or possibly not do, we still dont know.)

I think that quote is applicable to a lot of riders. Given specialization and role players, it is often hard to know who is good and who can be "great". For certain there are some fabulous riders well down the GC who toiled hard and could have placed much better if they hadn't been collecting food and water and battling the winds for their leader for long stretches-- heck even going backward to collect a fallen comrade.

Those folks, you only see how truly good they are at other races. At the Tour they can at best show glimpses

[alva]

[q=Flub]For me, my money would be on Basso. He matched Armstrong acceleration for acceleration through the mountains for two years.[/q]

But there will be no Lance "guiding" him next year. It's a good thing Vino will be in a new team competing to win, otherwise we may well see a stalemate where no-one wants to be the one to open up the battle and loose.