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Originally posted by KrazyHorse
No. The standard is generally 2 sigma
No. The standard is generally 2 sigma
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Yes, but what I'm saying is that the actual calculated zone is much smaller than the announced zone.No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful. -
never eat shredded wheat, Dan. I suggest you remember that.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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???I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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QFT, by the way...Originally posted by DanS
20 km East puts your cities along the coast in greater danger. We're picking your risks carefully, Canuck.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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I'm just wondering when we got colonies on the coast of greenland.Originally posted by DanS
???12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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I was thinking failure modes should the Air Force choose to destroy the rocket somewhere along the flight path, but admit that I haven't so much as taken a look at a map of the area.
BTW, what's QFT?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Quoted For Truth.Comment
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Dan, the atlantic ocean is east of north america. going further east puts you further away from north america.
no map necessary.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Oh, OK. Quite right. Got East and West mixed up.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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never eat shredded wheat12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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I don't know what that figure of speach means, KH.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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north east south west12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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OK, anyway, I took a look at the 1 in a million estimate by the Air Force for the drop box and it made sense to me in an order-of-magnitude way, which your calculations didn't.
If I made an error in assuming that the distribution of risk isn't flat at that distance of 27 kms (which is of course required for a one-in-a-trillion risk figure), then I guess I'm in pretty good company. But I'm pretty skeptical that it's a flat distribution and think that it's probably something like what TMM says -- these being notional tools. Rocket trajectories are pretty precise nowadays with GPS (when everything is working).Last edited by DanS; April 10, 2005, 21:19.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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No, one in a trillion is still extremely silly. It hasn't gotten any less so.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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Let's look at it another way. What would the distribution have to be in order for a 1 in a trillion risk to make sense?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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