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...of course, it won't be completely random.
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No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful. -
The Hibernia platform is 98m x 34m, so that's 1/300 divided by the number of square kilometers in your drop box, assuming a flat distribution.
Infer a 25 km radius drop box from the confusion in the articles, so that's a 2,500 km^2 drop box, resulting in a very rough 1/750,000 chance of striking the platform, about the 1 in a million that the Air Force said it would be inside the drop box.
We can assume that the distribution inside the drop box is not flat and a drop box is rather just a notional convenience. At the outer edges of the drop box, the chances of collision are probably extremely low, so it doesn't surprise me to learn that the chances outside the drop box are even lower.Last edited by DanS; April 10, 2005, 20:11.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Silly, silly DanS. If the expected drop zone is 25 km in radius that means that the standard error is on this order. Meaning that the distribution is actually relatively flat at those distances.
12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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like I said: another 20 miles east would make me much more comfortable, dropping the chances of a collision to something well under 1 in a million.
12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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But you do agree that the 1 in 750,000 squares with what the Air Force said it would be, right?
You're assuming that the drop box radius equals the standard error, right?If the expected drop zone is 25 km in radius that means that the standard error is on this order.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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Nope. I'm assuming that they're on the same order. Not exactly the same.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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Unlikely.Originally posted by KrazyHorse
Silly, silly DanS. If the expected drop zone is 25 km in radius that means that the standard error is on this order. Meaning that the distribution is actually relatively flat at those distances.
The region within the standard error is likely to be much, much tighter.No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.Comment
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What happened to your 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 20,000 chance of collision earlier in the thread? Are you now agreeing that you were about 2 orders of magnitude off, even assuming the platform is in the drop box, which it isn't?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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They're cutting it too damn close. The chances of a collision are low, but but not low enough to risk a couple of hundred lives for something which can easily be moved 20 miles. that would change the plane of the orbit by something like a degree.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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1.5 or so, actually. A site I'd seen earlier gave the drop radius as 10 km, not 25.Originally posted by DanS
What happened to your 1 in 10,000 or 1 in 20,000 chance of collision earlier in the thread? Are you now agreeing that you were about 2 orders of magnitude off?
And that's a lot better than the 6 orders of magnitude the Air Force is off by.
12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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No. The standard is generally 2 sigmaOriginally posted by The Mad Monk
Unlikely.
The region within the standard error is likely to be much, much tighter.12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
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The risk to the cavalry is acceptable. Agreed?I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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No it isn't. You guys are being dicks about this. We'll remember.
12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
Stadtluft Macht Frei
Killing it is the new killing it
Ultima Ratio RegumComment
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20 km East puts your cities along the coast in greater danger. We're picking your risks carefully, Canuck.I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891Comment
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