MLB: Opening Day!

[DerSchwarzfalke]

There are more options for the 9 hole in the AL, of course, that are not available to NL strategies. Last year, for instance, Joe Torre would bat Kenny Lofton in the 9 hole with Derek Jeter or Bernie Williams leading off. Is Lofton a 9 hole quality hitter? Of course not, but it operates on the theory that you want speed on both ends of the lineup. He sometimes has Womack batting ninth, currently, but generally he likes to have Womack batting second -- where he is absolutely incapable of batting Jeter in, but that is neither here nor there.

[ixnay]

How bout them Padres

[DerSchwarzfalke]

About Soriano, take a look at his production in the power numbers over the past couple years: http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/soriaal01.shtml

Doubles and homerun production were significantly down in his last year with the Yanks and first year with the Rangers. I have looked at his current numbers, however, and you are right that his slugging numbers are up and on pace to be more in with what Soriano can produce. As a producing second baseman, Soriano is definitely among the best. Unfortunately, I do not know if his defensive proclivities have improved at all since departing from pinstripes. I wish he had agreed to make that conversion to center field; he would probably still be a Yankee, and I would not be treated to the horrible spectacle of Bernie tagging up from first base.

And do not discount the Nats either, Imran. They would have to pull off a miracle of Major League-like proportions to win the East, but their pitching staff is one of the better in the NL. Livan Hernandez for instance? Beast. And it seems Esteban Loaiza has figured out his cutter again.

Quick question on the Nats: who did they trade to get Marlon Byrd? Or was he a free agent? I know he was in Spring Training with the Phillies.

[Imran Siddiqui]

ok, heres how it works. DHs (ya know, the guys who replace pitchers) are batting .253/.335/.415 this year. NL pitchers are batting .132/.136/.164. case in point. they hit ON AVERAGE twice as much as pitchers. Ortiz is batting .296/.383/.563. when 1) you have your weakest position batter hitting #8, and behind him guys who average .132, its easy to see why going through an NL lineup is so much easier.

the #9 guys are batting .032/.032/.032 vs pedro this year. you can sure bet thats why his era is way down.

and you see, in the NL, those #9 AL guys would be batting #8. so in other words, #9 AL = #8 NL - the lack of protection factor, since #9 NL = DH AL

But you aren't answering the question. How do those #9 AL hitters provide so much more protection? The answer is they don't. Yes, you do replace the pitcher with a DH and that means you have to account for the difference in ERA. That is what ERA+ is for.

The AL lineup is more deadly, so you compare the ERA to the rest of the league. And if there is any more protection (which I doubt) that is taken care of it as well.

Now how is ERA+ not a good measure to compare?

Doubles and homerun production were significantly down in his last year with the Yanks and first year with the Rangers. I have looked at his current numbers, however, and you are right that his slugging numbers are up and on pace to be more in with what Soriano can produce. As a producing second baseman, Soriano is definitely among the best. Unfortunately, I do not know if his defensive proclivities have improved at all since departing from pinstripes. I wish he had agreed to make that conversion to center field; he would probably still be a Yankee, and I would not be treated to the horrible spectacle of Bernie tagging up from first base.

Yep, the thing is that Showwalter realized that Soriano is NOT a leadoff hitter. When you ask him to get on base, you limit him, because Soriano doesn't walk and swings away too often. When you put him 5th and tell him to just swing away, he's much more comfortable.

I don't think his defense is any better, but you can't have everything .

And do not discount the Nats either, Imran. They would have to pull off a miracle of Major League-like proportions to win the East, but their pitching staff is one of the better in the NL. Livan Hernandez for instance? Beast. And it seems Esteban Loaiza has figured out his cutter again.

Bah.. they'll fade. We are talking about the former Expos here. And the NL East is loaded. Even Philly has a shot!!

[Lawrence of Arabia]

But you aren't answering the question. How do those #9 AL hitters provide so much more protection? The answer is they don't. Yes, you do replace the pitcher with a DH and that means you have to account for the difference in ERA. That is what ERA+ is for.

ok, so its harder for a pitcher to go through the lineup. a guy like pedro who is only good up to 100 - 105 pitches, that means you have nearly two free outs out of nine. this saves you TONS of pitches, so you can go further in the game. and you get more strikeouts.

[Imran Siddiqui]

ok, so its harder for a pitcher to go through the lineup. a guy like pedro who is only good up to 100 - 105 pitches, that means you have nearly two free outs out of nine. this saves you TONS of pitches, so you can go further in the game. and you get more strikeouts.

And you can compare how good they are to the league by using ERA+. The only K's that really matter is K/BB or K/inning.

And Pedro being good for only 100-105 pitches a game was a myth. His innings per start last year was more than someone like Jason Schmidt.

Having two free outs compared to one free out (in the AL) is not that much of a difference. The only place it may matter is in wins (if your bullpen sucks then going longer gives you a better chance).

[Lawrence of Arabia]

And Pedro being good for only 100-105 pitches a game was a myth. His innings per start last year was more than someone like Jason Schmidt.

thats cuz schmidt gets pinch hit for in the late innings when they need a hit. and there are no free outs in the AL. just lookt at pedros ERA before 100 pithces, and then after 100 pitches.

[Ned]

When the DH first began, the AL era's were consistently a point higher than the NL's. Today they are about equal. Why? I suggest that the AL has gone to better defensive players up the middle that, on average, have less punch. We could test this theory by comparing the BA's of AL catchers, SS's and centerfielders vs. their counterparts in the NL.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
thats cuz schmidt gets pinch hit for in the late innings when they need a hit. and there are no free outs in the AL. just lookt at pedros ERA before 100 pithces, and then after 100 pitches.

Look at ANYONE's ERA before and after 100 pitches. There is a reason that people look at that number as a limit. I remember the first time Smoltz pitched against the Mets this year. He hit 100 pitches and completely fell apart.

Pedro pitched 217 innings last year. Schilling had 226.7, Santana pitched 228, Mulder pitched 225. Pedro was right in with the big time AL pitchers in innings. In fact he was 13th in the league in innings pitched and tied for 6th in the AL.

In the NL last year, most starters pitched less innings than that. It may be because they were lifted for hitters, but then wouldn't Pedro be subject to that this year as well?

But Pedro is 10th in the Majors in innings pitched so far and 6th in the NL. In 11 starts he has as many innings pitched as Tim Hudson, who no one has ever said couldn't go deep into the game.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ned
When the DH first began, the AL era's were consistently a point higher than the NL's. Today they are about equal. Why? I suggest that the AL has gone to better defensive players up the middle that, on average, have less punch. We could test this theory by comparing the BA's of AL catchers, SS's and centerfielders vs. their counterparts in the NL.

To be fair, the AL's ERA is a little bit more than the NL's. In 2004, the AL's ERA was 4.63 with 5.01 runs per game. The NL's ERA was 4.30 with 4.64 runs per game. Not completely equal, but not a vast difference either.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia

yeah they got a great pitcher, but hes only good in the NL for one, and for two, come back in three years and tell me how good pedro is doing on his 4th year.

I'm sure he'll be doing better than the average of the Red Sox rotation as a whole that year.

epstein still sucks.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by ixnay
How bout them Padres

Yeah, my second favorite team is kickin' some ass this year.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
epstein still sucks.

No, Theo is a great GM. He just made a mistake with Pedro. It happens.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui


No, Theo is a great GM. He just made a mistake with Pedro. It happens.

He still sucks. Not as bad as Ca$h-man or any other MFY, but Sox without Pedro v Sox with Pedro may well mean the difference this year.

[DerSchwarzfalke]

I hear through the grapevine that the Sox did offer Pedro that elusive fourth year and he signed with the Sox right before jumping ship to the Mets. I do not blame Epstein one iota for holding out on giving Pedro that fourth year. Look at the numbers Imran cited above about innings pitched and Pedro's relation to it. What is the difference between Pedro and the other pitchers up there? Generally, age. He is going to fall apart within the next two seasons, and soon that 100 pitch limit will turn into a 70-80 pitch limit.

Whatever, **** 'im. I hope Randy Johnson drills him in the ass during next season's Subway Series.