CanPol: Gomery and a Looming Federal Election

[notyoueither]

http://www.canada.com/national/story.html?id=aaf3b65f-12a2-46d9-b794-050899c0ffa7

Layton: polls show frustration with Liberals

Canadian Press

April 15, 2005

OTTAWA -- The leader of the federal NDP says his party's best poll results in 15 years reflect voter frustration with broken Liberal promises.

Jack Layton says the sponsorship scandal has focused people on frustrations over the environment, day care, health care and other issues.

"People are looking at 12 years of broken promises. They've been waiting for action, they don't see it,'' Layton said.

"Their air is dirty. Their education is too expensive. They've got waiting lists for health. The Liberals are stealing their money and they're looking for alternatives.''

The sponsorship scandal has breathed new life into the NDP, with a new poll showing the party nipping on the heels of the ruling Liberals.

A new CBC poll placed the NDP at 24 per cent, compared with 27 per cent for the Liberals. Both were far behind the Conservatives, who led with 33 per cent.

But don't expect the NDP to help topple the Liberals in the coming days. Layton suggested he won't support the Conservatives if they table a non-confidence motion next week.

"I would say it's rather unlikely that we would be supporting a Conservative motion,'' he said. "We haven't made our final decision but I think it's rather unlikely.''

The Tories and Bloc Quebecois could possibly topple the government and cause an election without help from the NDP.

But the Tories ardently hope to get all opposition parties' support. They fear that without it the Liberals would cast them as accomplices of the separatist Bloc.

All three opposition parties have said they will take the pulse of their constituents during the spring parliamentary break before deciding on an election.

Some Tories are clearly clamouring to take down the Liberals.

"Well, I can hardly wait,'' said Alberta MP Myron Thompson.

"Somebody's got to clean this mob out and the system needs really repairing.''

This week's poll of 1,200 people is considered accurate to within plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Sit down and shut up, Myron. Alberta isn't where the Liberals are going to be toppled.

[notyoueither]

Who can believe polls? This one has the NDP declining while the Liberals hold firm. Hmmmm...

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1113609604881_36/?hub=TopStories

Poll shows Conservative support still on rise
CTV.ca News Staff

With political polls showing Liberal support dropping over the sponsorship scandal and Conservative numbers on the rise, party leaders have already shifted into campaign mode in anticipation of a spring election.

Prime Minister Paul Martin's minority government appears to be heading for a defeat over news from the inquiry into the sponsorship scandal.

The latest poll by Ipsos-Reid, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail, shows dramatically different numbers from a similar poll released Monday. This indicates Canadian public opinion on federal politics is highly volatile and could change again in the coming days. But one trend continues – the Liberal numbers are dropping.

Highlights of the poll:

Nationally: 36 per cent of decided voters would vote Conservative, up six points since the previous poll. Liberal support remains unchanged at 27 per cent. And 15 per cent would vote NDP, a four-point drop.
In Ontario: Conservative Party support reached 39 per cent, a seven-point rise. Liberals have 33 per cent, a one-point drop.
Trust: As for which party leader is more trusted, Opposition Leader Stephen Harper beat out Martin, but on who would make the better prime minister, the positions were reversed.

Harper was trying to make the best of the week's polling, test-driving his party's message and winning converts in seat-rich southern Ontario Friday.

Harper toured a shirt factory in Cambridge, spoke at the Chamber of Commerce lunch, and then moved on to a high-tech firm in nearby Waterloo in the afternoon.

"This is a campaign stop," he admitted, "and I don't think we'll have to wait too long for an election."

Most polls this week are suggesting Harper could not now win decisively enough to form a majority government. While he is gaining ground in Ontario, the Bloc Quebecois is the main beneficiary in that province, where public anger over the sponsorship scandal is at a peak.

"At a minimum these numbers mean if an election were held tomorrow we could quite clearly have a Tory minority government," says Ipsos-Reid President Darrell Bricker. "If the Liberals fall further then I think we are talking about a Tory majority."

The polls also show that, overwhelmingly, Canadians do not want an election now. But Harper appears ready to gamble that voters will take out their anger out on Martin and not him.

"The real issue is, I have to prop up on this government on a day to day basis," Harper said. "At what point, simply on a moral and political basis, can I no longer justify doing that?"

Harper's first opportunity to bring down the government is April 20, but senior Tories say he's not likely to act until May for an election in late June, just before Canadians start their summer holidays.

On the west coast, Martin made his own campaign-like stop, touring Vancouver's waterfront with the mayor, then making the first in a series of announcements regarding the sharing of gas taxes with the provinces.

Martin was making his second visit to the province in the last few weeks.

Meanwhile, CTV Ottawa Bureau Chief Robert Fife says that senior Liberals are considering a pre-emptive move against vote of non-confidence. They are tossing around the idea that Martin might go to Governor General Adrienne Clarkson, requesting that she ask the Conservatives to form the government, without an election. The Liberals, then, would back a Harper minority government.

Asked about this prospect Friday, Harper sounded dubious. "That would be feasible only under extraordinary circumstances," he told reporters.

That scenario, says Fife, is "not very likely given the poll numbers -- I think the answer would be a resounding no."

And that trust bit in bold is rather baffling. Clearly, Canadians do not place trustworthiness very high up the list. Oh well, we get what we vote for...

[Drake Tungsten]

Bloc is gaining support in Ontario? WTF?

[Ben Kenobi]

I assume they meant Quebec.

[Drake Tungsten]

That's what I thought at first, as well. Then again, who knows with you guys?

[Richelieu]

I never thought i'd say this, but right now a Conservative government almost sounds like a good thing.

Promise a national referendum on same sex marriage and i'm in.

[St Leo]

Unfortunately, the Bloc does not run candidates in Ontario.

[notyoueither]

Originally posted by Richelieu
I never thought i'd say this, but right now a Conservative government almost sounds like a good thing.

Promise a national referendum on same sex marriage and i'm in.

But could they do that without ripping up wounds among the electorate?

I'd much prefer they listen to the judges in seven of ten provinces and let the issue die. No matter if it is Parliament or a referendum, the courts are telling us the status quo is unconstitutional.

[notyoueither]

Actually, I think Harper is being somewhat cynical on the issue.

He is using it to shore up support among some of the base and, more importantly, to drive a wedge between the Liberals and some of their support in immigrant communities.

When it comes down to cases, all he'll do is pass a bill and punt it over to the SCoC to rule as unconstitutional. At which point he will say he tried.

He knows how this will play out down to the last vote on the SCoC, so all he is doing is trying to win votes by manipulating voter emotions.

[notyoueither]

For myself, I'd rather see Layton as PM than see the Liberals rewarded with another mandate. Even though it may be unfair to Martin who may not have had anything personally to do with the scandal, the party has to be given a major misconduct by the voters.

I am heartened that Layton said he could work with the Tories. Maybe people can get over trying to vote the other guys out of power by keeping the Liberals in.

Who could be better as parole officers for the Tories other than the NDP? There would definitely be some compromises there.

[Ben Kenobi]

Promise a national referendum on same sex marriage and i'm in.

/me takes a quick look at his evil Canadian Conservative dossier with poll data on this topic.

You got it!

[notyoueither]

It doesn't matter, Ben. The result you desire will get tossed by the courts. 52% of Canadian voters (which are only 63% of the adult population) would be no better a mob than 65% or more of Parliament.

[notyoueither]

The only democratic result that would be helpful for your cause would be a constitutional amendment. Good luck with that.

[Ben Kenobi]

Why?

Where does the constitution say that to defend marriage requires an amendment?

[KrazyHorse]

Because lower courts in 7 provinces have already made the determination that it is unconstitutional to restrict marriage to heterosexual couples. The SCoC declined to rule on the issue, but it is extremely likely that if forced to rule by the federal government appealing the lower court decisions that they would not reverse the lower courts. Thus, any act restricting marriage to heterosexual couples passed at the federal level would be deemed unconstitutional, and there would be precisely two options: invoking the notwithstanding clause and a constitutional amendment.