Taiwan: Would War be viable?

[GePap]

First, why are you using just Dollar figures and not PPP numbers?

In PPP, which is what the CIA uses and is favored now since it removes differences cause by exchange rates, China's economy is not 1.65 Trillion, BUT purchasing power parity - $6.449 trillion (2003 est.)

http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html

Your calculations are thus completely wrong.

As for those economists:

You miss the point- I don;t care about economist since 1954, Japan from 1854 to 1954 went from Medieval Feudal power to one of the worlds great powers- so, can you name which Americans vaulted Japan in so little time from pre-industrial backwater to industrial power?

Besides, giving advice in economis has **** to do with "American ingeniuity", economics is a "scientific" academic field, and economis ideads travel the world- PLUS the only ones who make significant changes based on macro-economics are GOVERNMENTS.

[GePap]

Oh, and also, economic growth of 3% is seen as moderate- 2% is seen as OK, but weak. So now, the US won't be roasing like a tiger, even if you try your bit.

[Velociryx]

Glad you're still here.

Rant and whine all you want, and sure, let's use your numbers:

'03, China added 586,859,000 to their economy
in the same period (using the info from your cited source), the US added 340,690,000. China's net gain:

$246,169,000

And that was in one of their best years IN years.

Or, to put another way, they'd need 18.5 "fastest growths in years" to catch up.

Stumble once...re-initiate harsh, centralized controls as they have been wont to do in the recent past, and you get stagnant growth, which extends that time horizon further.

Again, I'm not saying, and have not maintained that the US's position is absolute and unyielding, but to overcome the US's dominant starting position is not the trivial task you make it out to be, nor is it something that's a foregone conclusion.

As for the blueprints of Japan's success....Japan's economic miracle began right after WWII, and continued until its economic woes in the late 80's. THAT is the economic miracle, and it was brought about in large part by Japanese willingness to work hard, guided by keen economic thinking from a variety of sources, but most notably the US. That, coupled with the fact that Japan was demilitarized after WWII were the twin engines that powered their miracle.

And btw, it's good to see you too!

-=Vel=-

[GePap]

Originally posted by Velociryx
Glad you're still here.

Rant and whine all you want, and sure, let's use your numbers:

'03, China added 586,859,000 to their economy
in the same period (using the info from your cited source), the US added 340,690,000. China's net gain:

$246,169,000

And that was in one of their best years IN years.

Or, to put another way, they'd need 18.5 "fastest growths in years" to catch up.

Stumble once...re-initiate harsh, centralized controls as they have been wont to do in the recent past, and you get stagnant growth, which extends that time horizon further.

Again, I'm not saying, and have not maintained that the US's position is absolute and unyielding, but to overcome the US's dominant starting position is not the trivial task you make it out to be, nor is it something that's a foregone conclusion.

If China grew at 4.5% a year and the uS at 1.9% a year, by 2060 China would be the worlds leading economy, and that is not even taking into account India.

NO one said the transition would be quick, but yes, I think it is inevitable, a forgone conclusion, just as the US surpassing the UK was inevitable once the US began to industrialize.

As for the blueprints of Japan's success....Japan's economic miracle began right after WWII, and continued until its economic woes in the late 80's. THAT is the economic miracle, and it was brought about in large part by Japanese willingness to work hard, guided by keen economic thinking from a variety of sources, but most notably the US. That, coupled with the fact that Japan was demilitarized after WWII were the twin engines that powered their miracle.

The Japanese miracle was hardly after 1945- it was before that. Yet again, for the umpteenth time, in 1854 Japan was a feudal, medieval society- maybe you could say it had 1650 European technology. BY 1905 it was strong enouch and rich enough and advanced enough to defeat Russia, and by 1941 strong enough and rich anough to conquer most of East Asia from the Europeans. THIS is the spectacular growth I speak of, not Japan's economic recovery after being bombed and nuked- because the foundations of a modern Japan had already been set by the Japanese. I mean, for god's sake, why is this so damned difficult to get!!!

Let me repeat for the fourth time:

in less than 100 years Japan went from Medieval feudal state to modern industrialized capitalistic imperial state.

It took the Europeans (and Americans) 200+ years to do the same.

This is the growth that China and other can most readily emulate. And it had ****, absolutely nothing to do with "American innovation"

[Drake Tungsten]

Do you know how many foreign advisors Japan brought in after the Meiji Restoration, GePap?

[Velociryx]

:: yawn:: I get it, I'm just not impressed, in the same way I'm not impressed by the fact that Soviet Russia built heavy industry at a rate unseen before or since....never mind the fact that it "only" cost them a few hundred million lives.

Yeah, it was a feat. It was a feat brought about by fairly un-reproducable events...a convergence of history and circumstance that China could no more emulate than Htutsi tribesmen could put a man on the moon by middle of next week.

As to your summations...yes yes. IF, IF, and IF.

But you know what they say about assumptions, right?

-=Vel=-

[GePap]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Do you know how many foreign advisors Japan brought in after the Meiji Restoration, GePap?

AND?

Are you dumb enough to think any society in the world has advanced without taking into account the ideas of outsiders?

Do you know how many civilizations invented writing independently? Not many- does that mean the fact everyone uses it says something bad about the fact anyone save the civs that invested writing use it?

Amazingly enough, the Chinese have the ability to, hmm...go online, read books, send student overseas, hire foreigners to get ideas. But in the end, its applying them that matters.

[Drake Tungsten]

You're saying that Japan's rise had nothing to do with American innovation. That's patently false. The Japanese copied Western innovations, including American ones, in order to become a world power. Even after redefining the terms of the debate several times, you're still wrong...

[GePap]

Originally posted by Velociryx
:: yawn:: I get it, I'm just not impressed, in the same way I'm not impressed by the fact that Soviet Russia built heavy industry at a rate unseen before or since....never mind the fact that it "only" cost them a few hundred million lives.

What you find impressive is utterly immaterial- ie, who the **** cares? Japan did not become rich through totalitarian means- the Meiji period instituted Parlimetary rule on the Prussian system, so the comparison is immaterial.

Yeah, it was a feat. It was a feat brought about by fairly un-reproducable events...a convergence of history and circumstance that China could no more emulate than Htutsi tribesmen could put a man on the moon by middle of next week.

History is never the same. That means that for all we know, the next 100 years will see a convergence of events that might make China's rise EVEN FASTER AND MORE IMPRESSIVE. We don;t know. But to a great degree your idea that it might have to be a long time is based on the same IF< IF IF (IF China growth slows, IF the US sees no massive eocnomic setback, IF...)

But you know what they say about assumptions, right?

-=Vel=-

Someone whose arguements are based on assumptions should not be talking.

My arguement is based on Common sense. China is a huge country, four times the people as the US. Its poor today, but becoming richer. At some point, once developed, its economy will be bigger than that of older, developed, smaller state.

Seems rather simple,. NO? And without a single IF.

Unlike the Vel arguement.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
You're saying that Japan's rise had nothing to do with American innovation. That's patently false. The Japanese copied Western innovations, including American ones, in order to become a world power. Even after redefining the terms of the debate several times, you're still wrong...

OH,, my gosh, the Japanese "copied"- newsflash einstein, all societies copy. That is fact is the whole point of my arguement. The Chinese, just as the japanese, can copy the ideas of others (just as 600 years ago Europeans copied the ideas of others ahead of them) to advance faster than those before them did. So, just as the Japense, after deciding to open up to the world, took in the worlds ideas, found those they liked, found best, and worked tirelessly to innovate themselves, built frm a feudal medieval society a modern industrialized state.

China and India can both do the same, and China and India have vastly greater potential than Japan ever did. So, once China and India finish becoming developed states, they will be paramount in the world, and the US will no longer be the world's leading state.

I love it when people think they are attacking my point and in fact, make it for me.

Good show, potemkin.

[Drake Tungsten]

Jesus, you are light years from a consistent argument at this point. Why do I even bother?

[Velociryx]

That's why I love needling him, Drake...

He's got some points...it's true that the US does not present lead the world in all economic indicators. :: shrug:: Doesn't matter, and not relevant to the debate, but he's right there.

Also doesn't matter that "not everyone aspires to the American model of prosperity." ....the whole work to live vs. live to work model.

The fact is that the muchly vaunted Euro system is in deep doggie doo, brought on by the fact that Europe is shrinking, demographically, and they're gonna have a financial crisis on their hands trying to keep the welfare state going that's gonna make our trouble with social security look like a trip to the state fair by comparison.

Again, the best way to see success for yourself is to emulate those who have already found it.

For those of you tuned in to some OTHER universe, that would be the US of A, no matter how you slice it.

Does this mean "make a carbon copy of?" Of course not, and I never hinted at, or implied that it did. It is understood that any nation will take a core idea and make it their own...put their own spin on it, as it were.

Doesn't change the mechanism, however.

And hearkening back to an earlier point, yes, Europe DID have a thousand-odd year head start. Not the US's problem or fault that they chose to squander those years beating the snot out of each other. Actually, it helped us, as you pointed out.

But the WORK of hacking a world class economy out of a continental wilderness (a harsh and unforgiving one, by the way) while the various landed gentry of Europe beheld the splendor of their sculpted gardens in their centuries' old estates...the ingenuity and savvy required to bootstrap oneself to that level, under the umbrella of an experiment that the whole world saw as pure folly, and taking time out to rip itself to shreds in its infancy....yes, that's pretty remarkable stuff.

And as to your latest post....you seem in QUITE a huff about what I find impressive. I'd gather by your response and ruffled feathers that it means a great deal to you.

And you said it yourself...history is never the same. That was a real leap, I know...and yet, your entire premise is that China should seek to emulate that which you have already admitted is not reproducable.

Sounds like a recipe for disaster, if you ask me, but there you go.

So yes...keep telling yourself that your "arguments" are nicely steeped in logic.

WHAT logic, I'm having a tough time fathoming, but that's one of the reasons I enjoy our discussions.

-=Vel=-

[Drake Tungsten]

That's why I love needling him, Drake...

[GePap]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
Jesus, you are light years from a consistent argument at this point. Why do I even bother?

You bother? The quality of your posts would indicate otherwise.

[Drake Tungsten]

Oh no! I am bested!