Are You Ready for Some Football - Super Bowl XXXIX

[Ming]

Continued from here:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=127493

Two teams in now... and two great games on Sunday.

[Dis]

because I like embarrassing myself, I'll post this again (it's easily missed in the other thread). Of course now that I post this, the Falcons will probably be humiliated by the Eagles next week.

I hereby take back all the bad things I've said about Michael Vick and the Atlanta Falcons.

This is the first time I have ever watched them play, and I must say I'm very impressed.

No, I'm not jumping on the bandwagon. I still don't like their style of play. But I do believe they have a shot at winning the superbowl. They should have little trouble beating the Eagles or Vikings next week.

[Ming]

Vick looked good... If can keep it up, they may get to the SuperBowl. It will be interesting to see how the Eagles play with TO.

[Frozzy]

For your enjoyment, a bit of a preview for what the Colts may do vs. the Patriots. I may do a proper preview for the Championship games next week, I didn't have the time to do a proper preview this week for Colts & Pats.

[Frozzy]

You're driving. Down to the two-yard line. 1st and goal. You think back to the Buffalo game the prior week. 4 straight runs on goal-to-go. You try to second-guess the defense. They'll think your doing something different. Stuffed. Stuffed. Stuffed again. But the opponents defensive end limps off. Too quick for an injury timeout. Fourth down and goal to go. The defensive end rushes back in just before the ball is snapped, and using his momentum, he crashes into the pile and brings down the runner.


It's cold. It's snowing. Receivers are being pulled down like garage doors. The long snapper launches the ball over the punters head. You finally find holes in the muggers' defense, and go down the field for two scores. Back in it. But you're losing 21-14. Last drive. Trying to tie the game. Your quarterback throws a perfect fourth down lob, while the intended receiver is flung to the ground, robbed of his money, and the attacker whistles away to the sideline as though nothing had happened. The referees do the same, handkerchiefs coming out of the pocket, but only to wipe the snow-egg off their face.

Now it's 2004. Your team is driving in the opposition five yard line. Your quarterback has a nose tackle in his face and underthrows a pass, picked off by a linebacker in a diving catch to his left, making soccer goalkeepers around the world stare in awe. You are back down the same 5 yard line again. Your running back reaches forward with one hand and has the ball stripped while rain pours either side. Then, he is down their again. He can't get his knee to the ground, so he lunges forth again, and the same hand steals the ball. Mugged again. But, yet again, you're in with a shot. Last drive. Inside the 25. You're on 3rd and 10, blatant mugging missed on the last play. You hear an audible. The right tackle frantically passes on the center's line call to the tight end, playing only his 9th game. He continues to wave his arms in the vain hope the tight end responds. The ball is snapped. Too late. The right tackle performs his asssignment on the defensive tackle. The tight end launches himself into a 10 and out. The opposing defensive end whistles past him, blindsides the quarterback, and takes him down. The game is still not lost. A 45 yard field goal attempt to tie the game. The ball is snapped. The punter pulls it down. The kicker follws through, only to sail wide right.

In a nutshell, you have the previous three meetings of these two AFC powerhouses. All great games, all going down to the final drive. There is little difference between these two teams overall, except in the past one has shut you down with exotic blitzes, and close coverage, while the other has outscored you, forcing you to catch-up, abandoning the run.

Here we go again, New England vs. Indianapolis.

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Colts Offense

The Colts offense in the past week has used many different matchups with their personnel. For instance, in the Denver game, they knew that Kelly Herndon would be covering Stokley, Harrison would be covered by Bailey, while Roc Alexander, the undrafted rookie, would cover Reggie Wayne. Guess which receiver got the yards.

There will be a similar situation against New England this week, as the Patriots are severly undermanned at CB. The Colts switched from a 2-TE base formation to a 3 WR base formation just after the Patriots game of 2003, due to the injury to Dallas Clark, but the emergence of Brandon Stokley has seen this formation being kept due to it stretching the defense, and Stokley's rare speed posing an incredible matchup problem for other teams. Meanwhile, Reggie Wayne is essentially the number one receiver for the Colts, with Marvin Harrison being nothing but a highly payed diversion for opposiong defenses.

In the trenches, ex-wrestler Jeff Saturday has shown he can handle nose-tackles all by himself, and in the past this has enabled the Colts to run the Patriots right out of their 3-4 defense while James has slashed the front three to smithereens. While the musical chairs goes on in the guard positions, left tackle Tarik Glenn and right tackle Ryan Diem have been permanent fixtures for the entire season. The Colts offensive line is not big, but they make up for that in perfect technique, and they manage to execute the Colts offensive plays almost to perfection.

Running the ball

Here are two offensive plays the Colts will figure to use on the ground.

Colts Stretch Play

The Colts Stretch Run is designed for the Colts linemen to push the opposition in anyway possible, while Edgerrin James runs laterally behind. If he sees a gaping hole while running laterally, he'll cut back into it and run upfield. Otherwise, he'll move around the tight-end and bounce it to the outside. The stretch play is a good running play against a slower defense, but against a 3-4 defense which is spread out laterally, speed is not as important, and more often than not the holes will be filled, causing the back to bounce to the outside where there is not as much room. Which is why, in the season opener, the Colts ran this play:

The Dive

There's nothing to the dive run. It's the first running play you learn. Hand off, get behind the center and guard, and keep pushing until you find the hole. Most teams get around 2 or 3 yards as the defensive tackles generally swallow up the holes and the back is tackled as a linebacker or end comes around the outside and tackles him, or he dives forward. However, when you only have one defensive tackle, and the center can handle him one-on-one, this can leave massive holes for the back to cut back into, and that's why the Colts gashed the Patriots out of the 3-4 defense. If, on a dive right, the guard can get upfield to the WILB, and the center can push the NT through the wrong gap, that leaves the right guard to handle the SILB, and maybe a TE on the SOLB. If you can hold the blocks, which the Colts do well, they figure to have gaping holes to run through.

What does it all mean?

Unfortunately, in the recent weeks in which they have played 3-4 defenses (Houston, Baltimore, San Diego), the Colts have been running a vanilla game plan and haven't used much of either running play. Therefore, you have to go all the way back to Week 1 to see them running a real game plan against a 3-4 defense, which is the New England Patriots.

Having said that, with Edgerrin James back to his old self this year, and a capable back-up in Dominic Rhodes, the Colts figure to have a solid running ame, which is more than capable of taking advantage of an injury depleted front three, and an agressive linebacking corps. The difference between these two backs lies in their running styles. Rhodes does not have the slashing, running style of Edgerrin James, but he makes up for it in a quick first step and good technique. Edgerrin James, however, is still a slashing back with a fiendishly quick first step, but lately he has been gotteing a few yards after contact and has become more of a workhorse back.Having said that, his 4.6 YPC this year was the best of his career.

Passing the ball

The Indianapolis Colts are the most prolific passing offense in recent time, and have their own share of solid passing routes which they use quite often

Comeback

The Colts love to run the Comeback route, especially with Reggie Wayne using his speed and size to send the CB one way, before turning back to the sidelines while the ball is in flight and picking up an easy 15 yards. Becuase of the nature of this play, it is difficult for the CB to jump the route without either causing illegal contact, or being totally faked out on a different route. To successfully defend it, teams must be sitting on the route most of the game, with either a linebacker or cornerback on a 5-15 yard zone by the sideline, or by simply risking the illegal contact penalty.

Play-action

Though not specifically route in itself, the play-action pass does open up a number of routes for the Colts. The Colts continue to play-action more than any other team, and they continue to score more points than almost any other team.

The play-action is one of the main plays on which Edgerrin James gets his yards,either running an out route after he has passed the line of scrimmage, or faking the out and turning back inside. Additonally, because a lot of teams will be playing zone between the 20s, this is where Edgerrin gets most of his yards. Teams will often see the fake, notice the runner does not have the ball, and then they forget about him.

The play action also opens out corner-post routes for Marvin Harrison. The fake draws the linebacker forward, and the corner-fake forces the cornerback to the outside. This leaves Marvin one-on-one with a safety, or perhaps all alone, as seen in the Baltimore game. In either case, Marvin has the superior range to beat the safety and make the catch.

Finally, the play-action helps out Brandon Stokley when he runs either a streak down the middle or a post route. His rare speed allows him to beat any linebacker and safety over 20 yards, so with the linebackers and safeties drawn forth with the fake, Brandon is almost always in a position to beat the safety and has an open road to the end-zone.

What does it all mean?

What it all means is you must have a highly disciplined defense to defend all the tricks and possibilities they will throw at you. This could mean mixing up man coverage on one side, with double coverage on Harrison, and covering the other side with zone coverage and deep zone over the top. However, this leaves you open to Edgerrin James sneaking out into the flat, and Dallas Clark, with excellent speed for a tight-end, over the middle on somebody who can't handle his pace. If you blow an assignment, well, you'll notice it on the scoreboard before you realise what you've done wrong.

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Colts Defense

The Colts defense has been peeled back significantly since the Kansas City game in Week 8. They no longer prepare in depth on their opponent, but instead they concentrate on their assignments, and being a young defense, this has helped them become an appreciable unit in the past 2 months. Though ranked 28th in yards allowed, they are among the league leaders in takeaways, sacks and they lead the league in tackles, so overall they can really hurt you in obvious passing situations...

Colts nickel defense

...and the nickel defense is a big part of that. When you're stuck in obvious passing situations, the Colts run at you with an incredible amount of speed up front, with Dwight Freeney, who leads the league in sacks, at right end, Montae Reagor with 6 sacks at DT, Raheem Brock, a DE, becoming the nickel DT, and Robert Mathis, with 10 1/2 sacks, at left end. With Reagor, Freeney, and Mathis having above-average speed for their positions, Brock's coversion to DT in nickel situations adds even more to a potent pass rush, and one that has helped them become a solid unit in the past few weeks. With two safeties who can easily cover half the field, in Bob Sanders and Idrees Bashir, they also takeaway the big play and force them to look to the sidelines or over the top, where linebackers like Cato June and Gary Brackett with much athleticism and range help in coverage there. It is a great pass defense in long yardage sitations, and last week against Denver they nary gave up a 3rd & long.

Colts front seven

Here, the Colts lack bulk up front, and power guards like in Pittsburgh and San Diego find themselves having a bit of an advantage against an undersized defensive line. However, their poor rushing stats are mainly due to being small along the defensive line and needing the first step. The Colts perform exceptionally well in short-yardage situations, being able to shoot their gaps and be in the backfield quickly, with the linebackers enticing the guards and center outwards. However, because the Colts use an umbrella type zone, they have to digest quickly what is happening and if they don't recognise the play, that negates their first step, and makes them easy targets for the blockers up front.

What does it all mean?

With Robert Mathis doubtful for this game, the Colts nickel pass rush will have some of its edge removed, but it is still a solid unit with Dwight Freeney, and Raheem Brock's speed being utilised at DT too much for many guards. However, with that speed gone on the edge, it won't really help their secondary all that much.

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The Verdict

With secondary depletions on New England's side, and Indianapolis still mostly at full strength, this figures to be, matchup wise, a bit tipped in Indianapolis' favour. However, they still have most of their front seven which has destoryed the Colts in the past, so that will be something to watch out for. With the experience gained this year against 3-4 defenses giving it their all, this may not be as much of a problem this time around, so if Manning gets 3 seconds, the Patriots do not really stand much of a chance.

Colts 31 - Patriots 28

[Imran Siddiqui]

WOOOOO! Go Falcons! Impressive 30 point victory. The Falcons ran for 320+ yards (4th most in a playoff game)!! Vick threw well when he had to, and had 2 passing TDs. The rushing game clicked on ALL cylinders! And I thought the special teams would play a part in this.

Kid, was that the impressed run defense you were telling me about .

Naw, I'm just kidding. You handled the week with class. You respected your opposition while wanting your team to win. Hopefully it turns out better next year (though not at the expense of my club ).

As for all the haters:

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Shame about the Jets though... however, they do like to live on the edge and it got them on the ass this time.

[Ben Kenobi]

Hey, you should have taken my bet.

I'd be wearing a Vick avatar that would say..

Vick's ma daddy.

[JohnT]

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Ben Kenobi
Hey, you should have taken my bet.

I'd be wearing a Vick avatar that would say..

Vick's ma daddy.

Not the same. You back San Diego, not the Rams.

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*high fives JohnT*

[Frozzy]

That was an awful rushing defense. The Falcons line were opening up shipping lanes for Warrick Dunn.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Get used to it... they weren't the #1 rushing offense for nothing.

[Frozzy]

Yeah, they have twig legs back there He don't need any holes opening up

[Shi Huangdi]

A tough game for the Steelers today. I am still rooting for a Pennsylvania Bowl with the Steelers vs. the Eagles, since that would make for a great atmosphere up here. Big Ben will really need to step it up though for the AFC championship. The Eagles could be in for a tough situation in the NFC. They are probably overall a better team then both the Vikings and the Falcons, but both of these teams are explosive enough that they could cause difficulties.

[Ned]

I must say that I was surprised by the Atlanta game and the Jets should have won. What does that say about Pittsburgh. They're lucky. But Atlanta? Are they for real?

[Ming]

Pitt was lucky... The defense did their job, but it was the turnovers and a return that almost did them in. If they are going to keep giving up big plays like those, they will be in trouble