Monkspider investigates: Sowing the whirlwind? Washington vs Damascus

[The diplomat]

This talk about attacking Syria is media fabricated nonsense! We may apply economic sanctions if Syria increases its help to Saddam's regime, but there is not going to be any invasion. It isn't going to happen.

This whole thing is ridiculous. Just because there is some saber rattling doesn't mean there is going to be a war. Here are the reasons wy there won't be a war:

1) Most of the troops in the region are battle fatigued from three intense weeks of fighting in Iraq. The only fresh troops are the 4th division which alone is completely insuficient to invade Syria.

2) We are pulling out 2 aircraft carrier groups, Kitty Hawk and Constellation. We would not be pulling our air power if we were planning to invade Syria.

3) Iraq is not stabilized yet, which will probably take months. We won't attack Syria while Iraq is still unstable.

4) No cassus belli. We are not going to attack Syria just because they harbor a few saddam loyalists. With Iraq we have a real reason to go to war which we don't have with Syria.

5) It would be political suicide. 2 wars in quick succesion would completely demoralize the american people and paralyze the economy. It would probably take 1 year before we could attack Syria since we would first need to rest enough troops, gather support, and stabilize Iraq. This would put an attack on Syria way too close to the Presidential election. No president would risk their political future by launching into an attack with a poor economy right before a presidential election.

6) North Korea is still a problem. We are not going to attack Syria while NK is still such a serious concern.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by The diplomat
This talk about attacking Syria is media fabricated nonsense!

Duh! It's more fun for them to have something to moan about though.

[gunkulator]

Originally posted by Sava
w00T!! DL11111

Already been through the wringer on this one. I've been here for two months and still I'm a plebe. (*sigh*)

[Spiffor]

Originally posted by gunkulator
Already been through the wringer on this one. I've been here for two months and still I'm a plebe. (*sigh*)

Post a tad more in the on topic (even one liners are fine), and you should get rid of the dance definitely.

[C0ckney]

i think this is just applying pressure to syria to at least be less visable in its support for terrorist organisations, and hopefully, to end its involvment in lebanon. a war seems very, very unlikely, britain has enjoyed reasonable relations with syria since its new leader came to power and sees him as a reformer.

so unless something very serious happens then a war with syria looks almost out of the question.

[CerberusIV]

If the Syrians have been sanctions busting then payment of a small fine seems to be enough to satisfy Uncle Sam

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/2948553.stm

[blackice]

I think the USA's intentions in the middle east are way too obvious, especially with this move. It's about time...... Good Job

[Lord Merciless]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


I am confused.

First, the US asked Hussein to exile or face invasion. But if he tries to go into exile, you'd need a country to "harbour" him. Now it sings a completely different tune.

That's easy: if he leaves before any shots are fired, he will be rewarded with a life in exile. Now so many people had died and so much property had been destroyed, he would have gotten away with an exile.

[monkspider]

Originally posted by Stefu
Shouldn't monkspider be saying 'Palmyra' or something?

[monkspider]

Okay, more on the situation. Apparently Arab leaders are holding a conference to discuss the possibilty of American action in Syria, with Persia stating that it will emply all non-military means of assisting their friends in Damascus. http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...syrian_worries

This next bit of info is from www.debka.com, an Israeli source I found remarkably informative during the Iraqi war.
Day 27 of Iraq War

Ultimatum for Assad as US Special Forces Land

Although President George W. Bush and administration spokesmen have carefully skirted any explicit threat of military action against Syria, DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Sunday night, April 12, small teams of American undercover troops were already inside Syria marking out the hideouts of Saddam’s close family, his top lieutenants, military leaders and the directors of his banned weapons programs. US special forces troops were additionally directed to locate the men who drive the operational arms of the Hizballah, Jihad Islami and Hamas terror groups.

Twenty-four hours later, Monday night, three events brought Syria even closer to becoming the object of direct American action, additionally placing France in Washington’s sights - albeit for a different kind of punishment. Syria faces imminent economic sanctions at best – although, since experience shows they never work, military action is very much on the cards. France stands to pay a diplomatic and financial price for certain actions that have come to light.

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources describe the White House as particularly incensed over the following pieces of intelligence:

A. Documents coming to light in Baghdad directly incriminate Syria as a full partner in the financing, development and concealment of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction programs. A source familiar with the new data reveals that Syria was not only a full partner but active in every stage of these programs to the point that they deserve to be called Iraqi-Syrian, not just Iraqi, undertakings.

Well before the UN weapons inspectors came on the scene last year, the Syrian president Bashar Assad took it upon himself to conceal the banned weapons, one by one, as they came off the production line. Syria’s support for Iraq in the UN Security Council and the attacks leveled by foreign minister Farouk a-Sharah against Washington, for venturing to accuse Iraq of concealing weapons of mass destruction, were staged to misdirect attention from the biggest political, intelligence and military fraud perpetrated since the Cold War ended.

Washington’s indignation over these discoveries has been manifested in a torrent of warnings to, and charges against Damascus in the last three days. Defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld took the opportunity of the warm welcome he gave the visiting Kuwait ruler on Monday, April 14, to produce intelligence that Syria had conducted chemical weapons tests in the last year.

He could have said more. According to DEBKAfile’s Washington sources, the defense secretary was also informed that in the same period Syria test-fired missiles fitted with chemical warheads from Aleppo in the north to Djebel Druze in the south near the Syrian-Iraqi-Jordan border junction. Damascus carried out the test on behalf of the Iraqi-Syrian partnership for developing unconventional weapons.

B. The details of the comprehensive military collaboration treaty Assad secretly concluded with the now deposed Iraqi ruler Saddam Hussein that were first exposed in DEBKAfile in September 2000 are only now emerging in full. Under its terms, Syria was bound to furnish an escape hatch for fleeing Iraqi military, political, scientific and intelligence top echelons working on the banned weapons programs, as well as providing concealed locations for production to continue. Damascus was therefore committed to taking over the shared WMD projects from the point they were interrupted by a war emergency in Baghdad.

C. This discovery relates to the aid rendered Syria by France. DEBKAfile’s exclusive intelligence and military sources reveal that, from Monday night, April 14, groups of Iraqi military and scientific leaders have been transferred from Syria to France. This came about as a result of President Chirac consenting to help Assad live up to his commitments to Saddam Hussein and keep their forbidden weapons out of sight and their existence denied.

These discoveries led the Bush administration to slap down before Damascus a three-part ultimatum:

1. First, in view of Syria’s long record as sponsor of terror, the Assad regime is required to dismantle at once the command centers of the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Jihad Islami and Hamas Damascus headquarters and turn their leaders over to the United States. A list of names is supplied.

2. To hand over without delay all the weapons of mass destruction on its territory, whether they are “Iraqi� or “Syrian�.

3. To surrender to the Americans at once every one of the hundreds of Iraqi regime members, including Saddam kinsmen, granted asylum in Syria.

Assad’s failure to deliver would result in the United States acting to force his compliance.

Washington’s ultimatum evoked a frantic Arab reaction. Saudi foreign minister Saudi Al-Faisal went to Damascus to warn the Syrian ruler of grave consequences should he persist in defying the Americans. He advised him to call an urgent Arab foreign ministers meeting for Friday, April 18, and ask the Arab world to back him up in meeting Washington’s demands. The Syrian ruler has not yet informed the Saudi minister of his intentions.

Though not unaware of the danger hanging over his head, Assad is showing the same kind of stubbornness as Saddam Hussein his ally exhibited when he was urged by a procession of diplomatic well-wishers to show flexibility – or go into voluntary exile – so as to avert an American invasion.

A brief anecdote indicates the deceptive nature of the Syrian-Iraqi alliance. Iraq’s UN ambassador Mohammed Al-Douri, the first Saddam regime official to concede his country’s defeat (“The game is over�), aroused some sympathy when he burst into tears in New York and vowed to devote his life to a peaceful future for his people. He announced he would be going to Paris.

Well, DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources have discovered that the weeping ambassador stayed in Paris only long enough to catch the next plane to Damascus, where he joined his not exactly peace-loving brother, who turns out to be the deposed vice president Izzat Ibrahim Al-Douri.

[Drake Tungsten]

If the Syrians are really doing all the things that site accuses them of doing, then I would have no problem with attacking them next.

[MRT144]

where do you end though drake?

[monkspider]

I suspect that once Bush and the media builds up this war, most people will agree with you Drake.

[Drake Tungsten]

where do you end though drake?

When countries stop taking in Iraqi leaders and Iraqi WMD's?

Look, I don't want to fight Syria, but if they're really hiding Iraqi leaders and Iraqi WMD's then we don't really have a choice.

[Lord Merciless]

We don't want another war, especially not at this moment. But if these allegations turn out to be true and Syria doesn't cooperate, then we have to go in there once more. No job should be left unfinished.