How psyched up are the Iraqis for a guerilla warfare in Bagdat.

[Dominikos]

**Note: I deleted this same post on the previous page since it was one of the last posts and the last posts have the misfortune of not being read. I will post it here.**

Has everyone forgotten the lessons from history.

Only my personal speculation. If the US surround the city they will probably give up after a while. Just bomb them until they are ready to embrace american democracy.

Just bomb them? Bombing Baghdad into submission would result in the deaths of tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of Iraqi casualties. The United States would begin to face pressure from the world community to stop bombing.

World War II has taught us that bombing people into submission does not work, it only infuriates them even further.

I would like to point out that this war is quite different. The Gulf War was about driving Iraq out of Kuwait. This time, the Coalition is driving straight into Iraq. Saddam and his command are not going throw in their best forces into battles fought on the field. They know they would lose. Guerrilla warfare is an entirely different thing. Everyone must know that if the Iraqis (including civilian population) are infuriated enough by the Coalition's advance into their country, they can make American and allied lives very miserable. The leaders of the Coalition are aware that a fragile situation exists and they must be extremely careful about everything they do (ie. notice the reaction of the American military command when American soldiers decided to raise American flags over victory locations - those flags were quickly brought down.) We are not peacekeeping yet my friends. We are fighting another country. Do not assume that just because the bulk of Iraq's population (most likely) does not love Saddam, that they will not turn on the coalition forces "temporarily" occupying their country.

The best thing to do (for us that is), would be to try and imagine ourselves as the Iraqis. What would we do. It's like the domino effect. A few Iraqis are infuriated by the American advance on their homes, more Iraqis see what's going on, they in turn become infuriated and on and on we go....

I may disagree with Kropotkin's second statement but I agree with his first...

While the support for Hussein alone shouldn't make that many people do that but on the other hand people have a tendency to take it personal when someone attacks their home.

I would make it personal business as well, if someone from a far off land began to make themselves at home in my country. The United States has incredible weaponry but they know they cannot take advantage of it in just any situation.

Anyone agree/disagree?

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~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

[GePap]

well then, change the last 't' to a 'd', since it is a 'd' sound and not a 't' sound.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by paiktis22
Why should I include your useless "h" since you understand?

You don't have to add the "h" just remove the "t" and replace it with a "d."

[Bereta_Eder]

you people should just switch to the greek aplhabet, english is too restricted

So MtG,
in your assessment, the Iraqis will virtually not mount any guerilla fighting of a significant scale?

[Dominikos]

When it's clear that the regime is gone, and most of it's military has surrendered, very few civilians are going to be interested in fighting

You're assuming that the population of Iraq will be overjoyed to have the coalition in their country.

We won't know the civilian reaction until we occupy Baghdad.

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~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

[Bereta_Eder]

I too am of the opinion that the civilians in Bagdat prefer their own ruler than an invading force.


They wont be fighting for sadam necessairily (although many will) but for their country which is being invaded, 2 different things.


Of course we'll have to see.


Also you all assume that there will be a ground invasion, from what I gather?

[Kropotkin]

Dominikos: I wasn't thinking of bombing the city in general, but the enemy units. i guess I didn't make that clear. Obviously it would lead to quite some civilian casualitis as well but from a american political perspective iraqi deaths is better than the deaths of american soldiers. It might annoy the rest of the world but Bush have annoyed them so much by now that some more wount matter.

[Kropotkin]

A side note: The only "right" way to spell Bagdad is in the way that the locals spell it. How they spell it I don't know.

[Bereta_Eder]

the question is wether the whole 4 million (or many of them) of Bagdat civilians will be the enemy units though.

[Kropotkin]

Anyone with a moustache is an enemy!

[Bereta_Eder]

oh thats very nice.

all they have to do is shave to confuse the enemy

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by paiktis22
you people should just switch to the greek aplhabet, english is too restricted

So MtG,
in your assessment, the Iraqis will virtually not mount any guerilla fighting of a significant scale?

Some will, but not anything near a widespread, unified resistance. The key for US forces when they have to fight is to isolate those pockets of resistance, then go in on search missions in relative overwhelming force - if you have a section of 10-12 blocks of city that's isolated, a couple of battalions of infantry is pretty overwhelming. If you have your forces scattered in small unit actions, it reduces their overwatch capability and also reduces the psychological impact on the enemy.

One big different between Iraq and Serbia, for instance, is that the Iraqi mindset has been built on a cult of personality for Saddam, not for Iraqi nationalism. Iraqis are used to compliance with power, and once Saddam is gone, they won't have a strong sense of nationalism to drive hatred of the allies and a will to fight at any cost.

Psyops and humanitarian aid will be huge weapons in preventing Iraqi resistance. What 95-98% of the people want is just to be able to eat, work and live in relative lack of poverty and fear. There's a certain percentage of *******s who've benefitted under Saddam's rule, and it's a tough question how we deal with those. Killing them if they resist is attractive, but ultimately, resorts in more fighting. Buying them off eliminates the fighting problem, but it's a lot of work for the occupation authorities and interim government to sort out who really needs to be tried and punished, and who can be forgiven, but kept out of future power, in the interests of moving the country forward into the post-Saddam era.

Overall, though, there will be little guerilla fighting, simply because relatively few people have enough of a stake in things as they were to risk their lives in such fighting.