How psyched up are the Iraqis for a guerilla warfare in Bagdat.

[Bereta_Eder]

Originally posted by DanS
It looks to me like this should be approached like any other coup. The biggest goals would then be taking over the TV, radio, and government buildings.

That's how a dictatorship happens.


The people are the ones armed with the kalasnikovs. They can do without TV.

The question remains how are they going to capture it

and the will (and armament) of the Iraquis

[Kropotkin]

Who knows? He look very, very dangerous to me! Kind of like that rabbit in "The quest for the holy grail".

[Bereta_Eder]

Krp, yeah another thing is that the US has no idea about guerilla fighting. Look at Somalia. They can only bomb from above like the ****** they are.


However, let's stick to the topic, shall why?

The ineptitude of americans at real fighting comes to point though too, if they're going in.

If.

So what do you think will happen?

[Dominikos]

This post has been edited. I will post what I had to say here later.


------------------
~Dominik - Lord of the Putumayo~

[GePap]

I doubt the US would allow a siege to go on long enough to cause a humanitarian crisis: I think, for example, the us won't bomb the electrical system or the water system, making a siege far less painful for the populace. Also, the Regime did hand out extra rations to the populace, so a humanitarian crisis would be minimized.

The US wants this war to end quickly, as each extra day simply allows anger in Muslim araes to fester. Now, that has to be balanced against the fact that, if certain elemets of the regime do resist, then the only way to end that quickly would incur heavy casualties.

[Kropotkin]

There's probably no way to prepare to take a city the size of Bagdad without considerable loses if they in fact will try to take it by force. Even the most elite troops would take some casualites. Unless all of them are cloned copies of John Rambo but for some reason I find that unlikely.

[Bereta_Eder]

Gepap, however, if you have water and electricity intact the siege will last a long time dont you think?

[GePap]

The US wants to give the impression above all else, that this is a battle solely against the regime. This won't be a siege of the old kind: as i said, the US will probably come up to the city, try to sort out who gives up and who doesn't, and then move in to destroy the pockets of resistance in ways which minimize civilian casualties. I don't think the US will face much resistcne form the populace, nor help either. Most people will stay indoors waiting for the dust to settle.

HOw bloody it beocmes depends on hjow stubborn resistance by the hard-core supporters of the regime is, and what tactics they decide to use. Also, if areas of the city are left without central authority, form either the Iraqis or the US, internal chaos might break out, with all those armed people.

[Bereta_Eder]

So you think the Iraqiu population will not fight to protect their country?


You maybe are making the mistake to identify the "country" with the "Regime":

Dominikos had a nice explanation of the difference.

Of course that was part of the question, the most important one maybe, how psyched up are the Iraquis for Bagdat.

[DinoDoc]

Zorba: Where is Bagdat? Is it anywhere near Baghdad?

[Bereta_Eder]

Just be glad I don't write it ÂáãäÜôç, and get it over with Moneypeny

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by paiktis22
Just be glad I don't write it ÂáãäÜôç, and get it over with Moneypeny

Sorry. It was getting annoying since it has been spelled correctly in this thread for you.

[GePap]

Originally posted by paiktis22
So you think the Iraqiu population will not fight to protect their country?


You maybe are making the mistake to identify the "country" with the "Regime":

Dominikos had a nice explanation of the difference.

Of course that was part of the question, the most important one maybe, how psyched up are the Iraquis for Bagdat.

What country? Iraq has been held together by repression much like Yugoslavia was. The people have little stake in it. Everyone knows the days of the regime are over. the only ones who will fight for it are those that are so embedded in it they have little chance of survival without it. The masses are waiting for the aftermath. It is once the regime is gone that you may see people tking up amrs, against each other to secure places of pwoer in the new system. Such a situation should not be too ba din places chock full of GI's, but elsewhere it might get ugly. (lest hope it doesn't...)

[Bereta_Eder]

Why should I include your useless "h" since you understand?

I make the english language more efficient.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by paiktis22


That's how a dictatorship happens.


The people are the ones armed with the kalasnikovs. They can do without TV.

The question remains how are they going to capture it

and the will (and armament) of the Iraquis

The will and the armament of the Iraqis will for the most part mean nothing.

In Saddam's regime, "suggestions" of appropriate behavior from the government aren't ignored, unless you're feeling a tad suicidal. So when Saddam, pre-war, suggests the people arm themselves to defend the regime, they comply. When it's clear that the regime is gone, and most of it's military has surrendered, very few civilians are going to be interested in fighting, and those, almost exclusively ones who are dirty in the regime's many crimes, so they have no future in a post-Saddam Iraq.

Baghdad has a lot of wide-open spaces, so it's not like Grozny or Mogadishu at all - it's relatively easy to isolate different areas of the city, and secure them one at a time.

Dan - SOF forces were in Baghdad last time, so for sure they're on the ground in and around there now.