The "Will Tony Blair last?" thread

[CerberusIV]

I am beginning to get the impression that Tony Blair's strategy is to put forward a second resolution, get the 9 votes needed and have it vetoed by France or Russia. Whoever uses their veto gets denounced as frustrating the will of the UN, it can be claimed that there is a second resolution in spirit and the war can start. Blair can claim theoretical UN approval and all will come good for him.

[TheStinger]

The onlt labour alternative to Tony is Gordon Brown and he is still prepared to wait a bit for TB to give up.

There is no credible labour leader from the left of the party( who are the ones opposing the war)

I wouldn't be surprised if just gives up though after all thi is over he looks incraesinly dreadful on TV

[Dauphin]

I wonder why the Brits here are minimizing the threat on Blair so much

If the UN passes then crisis is over, if the UN passes '9 fors' but is vetoed he will take flak for participation in a war but can politically weather it.

Only if the UN totally rejects and he pushes for war anyway will there be real risks. I can't see him commiting troops to action in that scenario. The climbdown will be embarrassing but the political ammo will not be there - people can't complain about him not taking unilateral action or not going to war when they were complaining about him wanting war until now.

[Agathon]

I don't think they will even get "nine fors" and even if they do he has lost such credibility that I doubt the public will retain any confidence in him. He'd been losing ground for some time before this - that idiotic wife of his hadn't helped and I had thought he would step down before the next election.

Anyway, I have to say I've noticed a continuing trend in the media of saying that the anti-war sentiment will fade or that we all know that there will be no veto and that it will all work out; but in fact it just keeps getting worse for him.

The real thing to look at is that he didn't sack Short, which is unprecedented, so he must be feeling the pinch.

[The Vagabond]

Even if Blair falls over this issue, it would be for a great cause: the unconditional US-British alliance, which is of paramount importance to his country. You know, great causes demand satisfaction in the form of innocent victims from time to time. Thus, even if Blair has to go, he can go with his head well high.

Whom I really feel for is Aznar. Why the hell did he need to keep so high profile in all this?? For the sake of the world-wide Anglo-Saxon conspiracy? Perhaps Blair promised him Gibraltar, while Bush promised to make Spanish an official language in the US?

[Agathon]

Robin Cook resigned today.

I have to say I greatly admire and respect him for this. At least he had the courage to stand up for his beliefs unlike the rest of the Hollow Men.

[Dauphin]

At least he had the courage to stand up for his beliefs unlike the rest of the Hollow Men.

Do you respect Blair for standing so strongly for his belief that war is the right thing to do?

If nothing else, my respect for Blair has risen sharply in the passed few weeks.

[Agathon]

I've never thought that Blair has any real beliefs. I've always thought he was a hollow man.

[Agathon]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/olmedia/cta/events03/ukpol/hoc/cook17mar.ram

Wonderful

[Sandman]

My respect for Blair has plummeted, since he clearly believes his own propaganda. That's worse than a leader who lies and knows it, a leader who is simply delusional.

[Lincoln]

Blair and Bush with both be with us 5 years from now.

[St Leo]

Blair and Bush with both be with us 5 years from now.

Aaaw, the chances of them starting a nuclear war that will rejoin us and them in the next life are not that high. Cheer up.

[H Tower]

I don't see Blair lasting, but I don't think it will affect the Iraq situation and England's commitment to sticking with the US. Any new government that comes in will follow bush, but try and restrain him just a bit more than Blair did.

[Lincoln]

Actually I don't have the slightest idea what will be going on in five years. I just wanted to start a conversation.