The "Will Tony Blair last?" thread

[Sandman]

If he doesn't get the second UN resolution, then I think that he will resign, or be removed from office.

If it's simply vetoed, then he might be able hang on.

[SlowwHand]

Once Hussein is spanked and put away, the whiners will act like they were on board the train the whole time.
The little roaches.

[Dis]

[The Viceroy]

Agathon,

Ive seen no poll indicating a majority of people against action against Saddam ! (Unless you read the Mirror).

Ive seen polls swing too and throw .. heck, one poll even said 68% of people supported getting rid of Saddam by force .. and I don't believe that either.

I think there are a huge multitude of feelings, stretching from NO WAR EVER to REMOVE HIM NOW ! .. To try to suggest that a few polls of a few thousand people represents a majority is simply incorrect.

No one opinion on this has the majority backing, NO WAR EVER just as much as REMOVE HIM NOW ..

At the end of the day, such is the spread of feeling, you could phrase any question and get any result you fancy.. thank God our government takes no notice of daft polls

[The Viceroy]

Blair will NEVER resign !!! Not unless a war went very very baddly.

[Agathon]

Dissident: He's an elected member of parliament and he can't be thrown out of his seat in the House until the next election (unless he does something really evil like trying to rape the Queen: and who in their right mind would do that).

However, Prime Minister is not an elected office in its own right like the US Presidency is. The British Prime Minister is the leader of the party with the majority in the House of Commons. Party leadership is determined by the sitting members of the party. So if the majority of sitting members decide they don't like the leader and want to replace him, he's toast.

However, what usually happens is that they tell him he's out and give him the opportunity to resign and save face. New Zealand uses the same system and there have been two Prime Ministers dumped out of office in the last 15 years - Thatcher was also dumped like this.

If you already knew this, I apologise. But I don't understand your comment if that is the case.

[Agathon]

Originally posted by The Viceroy
Agathon,

Ive seen no poll indicating a majority of people against action against Saddam ! (Unless you read the Mirror).

The constant polling we get here from so called pro-war sources like CNN have about 66% against a war without UN backing; and that is the low end. I've seen it up to 85%. Opinion against a war for whatever reason has been going up too, but I don't think it is over 50%.

In Spain it is even worse, although I don't know how their system works and if Aznar can be dumped.

[Dis]

thanks. I wasn't sure of the details of the political system over there.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by SlowwHand
Once Hussein is spanked and put away, the whiners will act like they were on board the train the whole time.
The little roaches.

So, how's Afghanistan doing? Whipped them warlords yet?

[CerberusIV]

If there is a quick and successful war Tony Blair is safe. If it seems there is a high economic or human cost to the UK then he is in trouble. I suspect he will get away with it this time.

The ones who should really worry are the French politicians who will be blamed for taking down the UN if they veto a majority vote as the consequences of that would hurt France for a long time, both inside and outside europe.

Incidentally I noticed on TV this morning that the first contract for rebuilding work in Iraq after the war has been awarded to a US company (possibly one **** Cheney used to be involved with). I am only surprised this hasn't been agreed sooner. Dubya had better throw Tony a few crumbs like this kind of contract for British companies to ease the situation.

Edit: yes Apolyton won't allow Cheney's first name

[Ramo]

Blair'll go down just like Maggie and her poll taxes did.

[The Viceroy]

Agathon,

Sorry, don't do CNN ..

The BBC do regular polls, in fact, as I was writing the last comment, they had a poll at 53% 47% against war ..

I was not trying to say there was a majority for it, not at all, I was trying to say that there is such a broad spread of feeling, that there really is no majority for or against action.

The devil is in the detail .. what KIND of action, and the question can affect the poll.

Even so, I maintain, Tony Blair is under no threat.. the only people calling for his job, are the people who always wanted him out.

If things go dreadfully wrong, and he waivers, then certainly, that would put him in difficulty, but I simply do not see it happening.

When the pictures of British and American troops come in, liberating Iraqi towns and cities, and the people welcoming them with open arms .. this whole "Stop the War" stuff will die a death.. and Tony Blair will appear a hero.. and talk of him losing the leadership or being challenged will appear ammusing.

[Solly]

Exactly.

And who exactly is going to take over, Clare Short?

[Dauphin]

The MPs who are showing most discontent are the fring cabinet ministers and/or their aides.

Who cares about Clare Short, Margaret Becket or Robin Cook.



I was in the same A-level economics class as Clare Short's nephew. He got so much stick given the class was almost entirely full of conservatives. Although the Tories lost power in a landslide election a month before our last class. So he had revenge.

[Spiffor]

I wonder why the Brits here are minimizing the threat on Blair so much. I agree Blair has a good chance of remaining in power, if he gets the support of the conservatives, but party politics from the tories, or a full fledged rebellion from the parts of the Labour he didn't locked yet, might end up ousting him.

Blair must act with caution, and this caution is motivated by the looming political crisis. Otherwise, Blair wouldn't try to push back the vote of the 2nd resolution, to get a majority in the UN.

I've read today the war would be supported by 75% of the population if it gets UN approval, but only 15% support if the UN didn't agree with it. That's a huge gap, and Blair should try to avoid such an opposition at all costs. Otherwise, the PMs (conservatives included) might think they'd have everything to win by ousting him.

Parties would have no trouble finding a new leader. Bush jr. showed us a party can pretend to have a great Statesman with about any cretin person, and that a population can be led to believe it.