FARC solution: Plausable or just too E X C I T I N G?!?!

[JCG]

Oh, now after all this I'm the one who doesn't care?

Funny how you can spin things....I could very well say the same to you.

I've simply given my opinion, you've given yours. Anything wrong with that?

[DuncanK]

You don't care about the independence of Columbia and you don't care if the US acts in a way that goes directly against the principles it was founded on. You don't care about the poor Columbians who are trying to live there. Again, I ask, what do you care about?

[JCG]

If you consider the FARC winning a theoretical victory through indiscriminate terror and violence in some far off future a way to gain independence, then I'm sorry but I can't agree with that.

I don't want people to die in such a way for an outdated communist system that will have to be reformed anyways (!) after the hundreds of thousands deaths and displaced its measures will cause ( no less than those caused by the current war, but probably more!), and those from U.S. opposition to such a regime with economic embargoes and all that crap.

Is independence (from U.S. imperialism, IMF, etc.) worth that fate?? NO.

I would prefer the Colombian people (and my Colombian friends and family, of which you have no equivalent) to live in peace, even if in the same conditions (poorness, IMF, globalization, etc. ) as all the other peoples in Latin America. Reforms will eventually come throughout the entire region, but not through blood and terror. That's what I care about.

But I am realistic. I know none of those paths are open right now, except for the path of Death, as long as this war continues, and I assure you it will continue until serious peace talks come, and they will not come soon.

It's the sad reality of Colombia, and I have to live with it and its consequences; none of you people do (that I know of).

[DuncanK]

The Columbians should be able to decide that for themselves. You can't just go around fixing foreign governments the way you want them, especially when those governments suck. The US should finally stop doing that, but I know they never will. Neither will they ever stop Communism, and you can't either.

[JCG]

DuncanK,

You seem to think Communism will work and all the world will live in a Marxist Socialist paradise in the future. That's arguably a noble intention in theory, but I can't say if it will ever come or not, in the far future.

I do know that Colombia isn't going to magically reach that state with a FARC victory.

I also know that the U.S. isn't going to "fix" anything nor change the eventual course of events.

And I also know that the FARC can't win under the current circumstances, neither will they lose.

They will struggle on, and they will continue to be fought. Their ranks will increase, but so will those of their enemies. It's a vicious bloody cycle.

You think they can win just because of the inevitability of Socialism coming foward as a result of a global revolution of the masses, or something to that effect.

I don't think those two events are related, and neither are their time frames .

The conflict may go on and on for another 5, 10, 40, 100 years or whenever fate wants reasonable people on both sides to come to power.

That's independently of whatever I want, whatever you want, whatever the U.S. wants, and independently of the final coming of any Socialist Utopia.

[DuncanK]

It's got nothing to do with Communist Utopia. It's about a government who doesn't act in the interest of the people, and which must go. The people want Communism so Communism it shall be. If it doesn't work they can try something else. However, if the US would keep their dirty paws off of them I'm sure they will do well.

[Ramo]

The summary of the most recent Amnesty International annual report for Colombia:

Colombia's internal conflict continued to escalate. Systematic and gross abuses of human rights and international humanitarian law persisted. Paramilitary groups acting with the active or tacit support of the security forces were responsible for the vast majority of extrajudicial executions and ''disappearances''; many of their victims were tortured before being killed. Armed opposition groups were responsible for violations of international humanitarian law, including arbitrary or deliberate killings. More than 300 people ''disappeared'' and more than 4,000 civilians were killed outside of combat for political motives by the armed groups. Over 1,700 people were kidnapped by armed opposition groups and paramilitary forces. All parties to the conflict were responsible for the forced displacement of large numbers of civilians. The security situation of those living in conflict zones, particularly human rights defenders, trade unionists, judicial officials, journalists, members of Afro-Colombian and indigenous communities and peasant farmers, continued to worsen. Evidence emerged of the strong links between the security forces and the paramilitaries. Judicial and disciplinary investigations advanced in several high-profile cases, implicating high-ranking officials in human rights violations, but impunity remained widespread.

FARC is a horrible organization, no doubt about it, but I consider them to be a far better organization than the AUC, and even marginally better than the corrupt gov't which has links to the paramiliatries in addition to its other many abuses. The AUC simply needs to be stopped.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by JCG
If you consider the FARC winning a theoretical victory through indiscriminate terror and violence in some far off future a way to gain independence, then I'm sorry but I can't agree with that.

But why single out a group for treatment when all of them act the same way?

[JCG]

You just don't get that the majority of Colombians are politically indifferent.

Violence and repression from all sides (gov't, paras, rebels) do that to a people in ways you cannot imagine.
They want peace and to be left alone, they don't care about Communism or Capitalism or what have you.

Where do you get that the FARC (or any of the parties at all, for that matter) have "strong" support ?

You have not provided a single proof of this nor have any experiences from which to say so. Why then do you insist on that point?

In a country with such forced political indifference nobody can ever muster the support to triumph.
It's so simple and yet you still can't get it?

And even if the U.S. instantly decided to leave Colombia alone, that doesn't make any of the outcomes any more certain.

Don't be so U.S.-centric when talking about Colombia.
But I guess you just can't help it, as that seems to be a vital part of your thought system...?

History since the Independence from Spain shows Colombians have screwed themselves up just fine with no other outside help necessary.

You seem to be able to predict how the future will develop, but have no basis for your predictions.

[Urban Ranger]

JCG,

If the rightwingers have such good support of the people, why would the US needs to prop them up? They can win by themselves. The very fact that the US is proping a side up clearly indicates that it is weaker.

[JCG]

Sigh...I'll try to answer all that without repeating myself, but it's hard.

-----------

Guys, I agree that the AUC and the government have committed horrible abuses and will continue to do so, and so will the FARC.

The current (as of now, I know it has been different in the past, but I'm not adding it all up) proportion of abuses and war crimes is something like AUC 75%, FARC 25%, Government 5%.

Now, I imagine that you want all of the groups to be punished by the U.S. for their actions according to their share of the blame. That sounds fair.

But that is not going to happen because the U.S. doesn't want nor need it to happen. (I already wrote what I think of the U.S. and it's involvement earlier in the thread, too tired to repeat it all).

Now, I also think that you'd agree that the U.S. should either act fairly or get the hell out of Colombia. Since the first option isn't very realistic, I'd be more inclined for them to get the hell out.

Still, the civil war will continue (again, I probably already explained this before in this thread or the other one).

The balance of forces makes the current stalemate extremely likely to continue indefinitely, at least until the leaders on both sides stop being radical and make reasonable demands at the peace table.

Only Colombians can decide how things will end, and when.

I hope this clears things up a bit, but I guess not...

[DuncanK]

I think the US involvement is the only thing preventing a new government from taking control there. If the Coumbian government still had a chance to handle things by themselves the US would not give them helicopters and other weapons. Weapons that the Left doesn't have by the way.

I say the government has no real support because if they did they would not have such a large and powerfull rebel group to deal with.

[JCG]

I'm going to argue on your terms, not that I agree with some of them, but whatever...

Originally posted by Urban Ranger
JCG,


If the rightwingers have such good support of the people, why would the US needs to prop them up? They can win by themselves. The very fact that the US is proping a side up clearly indicates that it is weaker.

No, the rightwingers also DO NOT have the good support of the people. Read above, please. The people have been forced by the deaths and threats of violence to be politically indifferent and care only for their lives.

However, if the U.S. props them up it's because a) it's in their interest (oil, drug war, what have you, etc....)
b) they don't like communism insurgencies c) they think it's the "right" thing to do.

It's not because they are "weak", in fact all sides have grown in strength in recent years and will continue to do so if current circumstances are maintained.

But If the U.S. didn't help squat, I suppose (this is all speculation) that the gov't and the paramilitaries would be forced to work closer than they do (which is less close than they have been historically, like in the 70's/80's, believe it or not), and the gov't would have to take huge loans, raise even higher taxes, make expropiations, etc.

Heck, if the gov't was truly desperate and under fear of falling to the FARC, it could even screw the drug war and go openly into the drug business itself, and then they would have an almost endless source of money with which to cover the deficits (a source of income which currently only the AUC and the FARC use), or threaten to do so if U.S. aid wasn't forthcoming.

The war would get even uglier.

[JCG]

DuncanK,

If you add up all the military, the police, and government employees, the number of 20,000 soldiers from the FARC looks pitiful. Suppose each combatant is supported by a family of 4. Who would have more support?

Of course, that quick analysis is flawed because it doesn't take into account the HUGE INDIFFERENCE I keep referring to (and a couple of other things, yeah), but it shows the general trend.

You'd be suprised if you knew what weapons the FARC can buy, they DO have some helicopters/small airplanes, anti-aircraft weapons, bombs, land-mines, etc.

Heck, they have the money to waste setting up groups of people that travel far and wide spreading their propaganda (a trip to Europe is VERY expensive for the average Colombian you know).

They have not been exactly lacking funds and expertise in some of those areas recently......Drug money can be godlike in its buying power (thus if the gov't were to use it....).

DuncanK, do you honestly think that you have all the knowledge and experience to make a complete and fair assessement of the situation?

I honestly think I'd make very wrong and biased statements if I were talking about the history and future of Sweden, Finland, Iraq or any number of foreign countries I don't really know too well other than by a few secondary sources, for example.

But hey, at least I freely admit it.

[DuncanK]

JCB,

You really should stop calling me ignorant of the situation. It does nothing.