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Estimated casualties of a war on Iraq: 1 million people!
Last I looked, the WHO was saying 500k casualties. But a million? It takes serious work to kill a million people. It took 5 years for 2 million French to die in WWI, and this isn't WWI.
And can we have a source, Patkis?
I refute it thus!
"Destiny! Destiny! No escaping that for me!"
But with Venezuela, we don't have to bother with the pretense of going to the UN. Being the sole power in the region means that we can go for a straight war of conquest and set up our own puppet government straight away.
You're right.
"I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen
Originally posted by Goingonit
And can we have a source, Patkis?
He pulled it somewhere between his left and right cheek.
I make no bones about my moral support for [terrorist] organizations. - chegitz guevara
For those who aspire to live in a high cost, high tax, big government place, our nation and the world offers plenty of options. Vermont, Canada and Venezuela all offer you the opportunity to live in the socialist, big government paradise you long for. –Senator Rubio
We get little oil from the mideast. Very little at all.
As Imran said, this is over Hussein.
Life is not measured by the number of breaths you take, but by the moments that take your breath away.
"Hating America is something best left to Mobius. He is an expert Yank hater.
He also hates Texans and Australians, he does diversify." ~ Braindead
I don't think it's about oil, but why it would be is that it's not the quantity that matters in the ME, it's the excess production capacity with which they can control the price. Saudi Arabia has more than half of the world's excess production capacity so, regardless of how much oil they actually sell to the US, they still have the world by the balls.
I refute it thus!
"Destiny! Destiny! No escaping that for me!"
How many of you were around and aware during the Gulf War? This is exactly the sort of thing that was making the rounds in Europe and on the left here in the U.S. The air literally stank with fear where liberals gathered, and I could harldy stand to go to the public square for fear of running into yet another petrified anti-war weenie. Thank God our troops at the front were a lot steadier than the "I don't want o get drafted" weenies at home.
I gamed that war out in September of 90, and I couldn't see how the Iraqis weren't going to be flanked and defeated in detail, which is more or less what happened. What I didn't take into account was the U.S. Air Force's strategic bombing campaign, which was taken in lieu of just rolling into Baghdad and bringing Sadam's head out on a pike. Multilateralism was a great success as far as it's ubiquity during that war, but it is the reason why we are back again. We traded away our ability to be decisive before the first American even set foot in Saudi Arabia, and we are and have been paying that price ever since. I'm not all that excited about returning to the Gulf, but if we are going to be decisive then I am behind it. Let's finish that bastard and get it over with.
He's got the Midas touch.
But he touched it too much!
Hey Goldmember, Hey Goldmember!
I hope nobody's saying 1 million American casualties. At least, not with a straight face. It took 40 or so last time, and that was against the "elite Republican guard".
I refute it thus!
"Destiny! Destiny! No escaping that for me!"
Gulf War II is not about how evil Saddam is, though he is undoubtedly an evil man. The war will lead to only more oppression and tyranny through mismanagement of its conclusion; the Shia will not be given any power because of Iran, and the Kurds will be once more subject to Baghdad's authority because of Turkey.
It's not about oil, although controlling sources of oil to leverage other states has always been a policy objective.
Rather, it's almost entirely about maintaing the political clout of Shrub in the domestic stage and the US in the world stage.
"Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
-Bokonon
Originally posted by Goingonit
I hope nobody's saying 1 million American casualties. At least, not with a straight face. It took 40 or so last time, and that was against the "elite Republican guard".
We had about 200 kia IIRC. I predicted about a thousand, but I didn't predict King George the 1st's bout of conscience at the end, where he let that last Republican Guard Division off the hook, and empowered Swarzkopf to make the armistace arrangements. That left Hussein just enough rope to hang the Kurds and Shiites and remain in power.
Enemy casualties were over-estimated by all sides both during and after the war IMO. Ditto the casualties which are supposed to have been caused by the oil embargo. I have heard claims as high as 2 million. This is bogus. Iraq has a population of 24 million, so a loss of 2 million people is 1/12 th of the population. Even Sadam would be hard pressed to rack up such a tally in full repression mode, which he was certainly in after the war, though with far fewer resources than before it.
Some of these losses can be attributed directly to Allied action (though an insignificant number statistically), and a good deal more to indirect results of allied (especially American) attacks on electrical and water and sewage systems. But these casualties have been overestimated and too easily blamed on allied activity, especially as time has marched on. The war ended 12 years ago, during which time the Iraqi regime has been in almost constant warfare with its own population. This leads to a few direct casualties, and many indirect casualties as civilian populations are forced to flee through rough terrrain in bad weather, or are purposefully being starved by the regime because of their support for the opposition. A lot of countries in the world get by with a fraction of the money per capita that Iraq receives from the oil for food program, and this doesn't even factor in Iraq's revenues from their own fairly advanced economy, or from the oil smuggling. Anyway, the number Paiktis states is fantastic unless nukes start flying.
He's got the Midas touch.
But he touched it too much!
Hey Goldmember, Hey Goldmember!
Originally posted by loinburger
The US is not in occupation mode. Witness Afghanistan.
That's why Afghanistan is not going anywhere. Taliban was bad, but at least they unified the country. Now the warlords are back and they aren't good by any stretch of the imagination.
Originally posted by loinburger
It is also not in "ground-fighting extraordinaire" mode, it's in "bomb the **** out of them" mode. Witness nearly every military action by the US in the past ten-odd years.
That's how the US will kill 1m people, by bombing the major cities. Suppose the Iraqi troops are withdrawn to the cities, the US either tries to force them to surrender by bombing the hell out of the cities, which will result in huge civilian casualties, or dig them out in ground actions, which will result in lots of body bags.
(\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
(='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
(")_(") "Starting the fire from within."
Originally posted by Urban Ranger
Suppose the Iraqi troops are withdrawn to the cities, the US either tries to force them to surrender by bombing the hell out of the cities, which will result in huge civilian casualties, or dig them out in ground actions, which will result in lots of body bags.
We could always send in the TV crews for the Iraqi troops to surrender to.
I think Bagdhad will likely be the toughy, I don't think the other cities will be.
"I read a book twice as fast as anybody else. First, I read the beginning, and then I read the ending, and then I start in the middle and read toward whatever end I like best." - Gracie Allen
I'm sure we have a long target list filled with military targets. And Chinese embassies.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
The last time I checked, there were still a good number of U.S. military personnel sitting in the Balkans — enlightened Europe's backyard, virtually — helping to rebuild the damn area from a frickin' war that enlightened Europe didn't seem to have the balls to do anything about, except complain to about American arrogance when we finally started throwing our weight around (something that U.S. conservatives, as I recall, didn't think we should be doing at the time ... gee, how times change w/the situation ... now the liberals are wailing and the conservatives are manning the guns ... and Europe is complaining [some things don't change]). So the stereotype of an America that comes in, blows the living hell out of its foes and then withdraws is just that, a stereotype that is hardly 100 percent true.
Same damn thing is going on in Afghanistan right now. I find it ludicrous that so many "enlightened" folks figured that Afghanistan would be well on the road to recovery and prosperity a little over a year since it was freed from the Taliban. That nation has been a damn wreck since the late 1970s, and you expect Humpty Dumpty to be put back together again in a year or two? Such hubris! I fully expect that it will take a minimum of five to 10 years of rebuilding to get Afghanistan back on its feet.
Furthermore, I'm starting to watch Colin Powell's pronouncements quite closely. This is a man who, I believe, isn't a war hawk. Yet even he's beginning to turn real negative on Iraq. That's telling me something more than Bush or Rumsfeld could ever do with their "we have proof, but we can't show it yet" drumbeat.
Gatekeeper
"I may not agree with what you have to say, but I'll die defending your right to say it." — Voltaire
"Wheresoever you go, go with all your heart." — Confucius
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