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Talking to a former NK, I was agained reminded of the kind of careless and arbitrary cruelty that lies behind the mere words 'brutal Orwellian dictatorship'.
Plus, the more I learn about him, Young Kim is not like Khruschev, or Brezhnev, or the other M.A.D. opponents of the US.
He has been raised in such a bizzare fantasyland from birth that he has done the most dangerous thing: buying in to your own propaganda.
I think he actually believes that he is a kind of god, that in fact "l'etat c'est moi". If he begins producing numbers of h-bombs, and puts a few on subs (the NKs do have submarines), he could very well impulsively have one detonate in Tokyo Bay, or San Francisco Bay for that matter.
But what can the US do without causing a massive bloodbath of the Korean peninsula?
The most attractive option is simply to launch enough cruise missiles at Yongbyon to shut it down. It is big and obvious. Blame any fallout on Kim.
But he would (of course) view that as an act of war and his next phone call would be to his divisional commanders along the DMZ, sparking a conflict that I believe could kill 3-4 million people in a year or two.
Assassination is the next most easy. Who will take his place? Isn't it likely that the most belligerant, most 'let's attack now and hang the consequences' officer would seize power?
Sanctions: Pfft. THis is a crap option. This achieves nothing except death. Even strictly military sanctions might cause what I assume everyone is trying to avoid.
Do Nothing: Like the diplomat in Lawrence of Arabia said, 'it's usually best'. Let Kim grow old and die, and work to make the NK population richer. Try to push them into the China-Russia model, not the Pol Pot/Stalin model.
US Troops:
My view on the US troops is to keep them there, but to pull them back out of the spotlight. They should not be right in the middle of downtown Seoul, no matter how 'fun' it is. Move them to bases in the mountains in the North east of SK. No Korean likes to see the sprawling mass of foreign territory in the middle of the capital. Scale it back, and instruct the troops on the meaning of 'low profile'.
Plus, the more I learn about him, Young Kim is not like Khruschev, or Brezhnev, or the other M.A.D. opponents of the US.
He has been raised in such a bizzare fantasyland from birth that he has done the most dangerous thing: buying in to your own propaganda.
I think he actually believes that he is a kind of god, that in fact "l'etat c'est moi". If he begins producing numbers of h-bombs, and puts a few on subs (the NKs do have submarines), he could very well impulsively have one detonate in Tokyo Bay, or San Francisco Bay for that matter.
But what can the US do without causing a massive bloodbath of the Korean peninsula?
The most attractive option is simply to launch enough cruise missiles at Yongbyon to shut it down. It is big and obvious. Blame any fallout on Kim.
But he would (of course) view that as an act of war and his next phone call would be to his divisional commanders along the DMZ, sparking a conflict that I believe could kill 3-4 million people in a year or two.
Assassination is the next most easy. Who will take his place? Isn't it likely that the most belligerant, most 'let's attack now and hang the consequences' officer would seize power?
Sanctions: Pfft. THis is a crap option. This achieves nothing except death. Even strictly military sanctions might cause what I assume everyone is trying to avoid.
Do Nothing: Like the diplomat in Lawrence of Arabia said, 'it's usually best'. Let Kim grow old and die, and work to make the NK population richer. Try to push them into the China-Russia model, not the Pol Pot/Stalin model.
US Troops:
My view on the US troops is to keep them there, but to pull them back out of the spotlight. They should not be right in the middle of downtown Seoul, no matter how 'fun' it is. Move them to bases in the mountains in the North east of SK. No Korean likes to see the sprawling mass of foreign territory in the middle of the capital. Scale it back, and instruct the troops on the meaning of 'low profile'.
Such amount of security personal I didnt' saw even when Putin was here. I guess this guy knows that somebody wants to see him in the grave and makes all needed precautions to prevent this. IIRC, CIA wasted years to remove Saddam and Fidel. They are still in charge. Easy way, my as$.
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