Between a rock and a hard place

[orange]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Orange, GP is correct. There was wide-spread belief that Iraq would put up some kind of resistence. At first, I said they'd be clobbered by the US, but I let myself get beat-down by the "battle-tested Iraqi army" argument (in retrospect, I have to wonder why since I knew what both US and Iraqi military capabilities were). There were also lots of news stories about Iraq's modern equipment.

A lot of opposition to the war was because of the fear of American casualites.

From a certain PoV, though, it was absolutely brilliant. You downplay your own capabilities and then CRUSH your opponent. You seem even more powerful and invincible than if you had gone in from the beginging saying that it will be an overwhelming victory on the order of the Greeks at Marathon. So, was this the result of a successful disinformation campaign on the part of the US?

I suppose hindsight clouded my objectivism.

I do remember, and have seen/heard examples of the anti-war effort back in 90-91, but I didn't think there was any legitimacy behind it.

The major newspapers charge for their archive sections though, so I haven't been able to get very far with some searches

[TCO]

Originally posted by orange


I suppose hindsight clouded my objectivism.

I do remember, and have seen/heard examples of the anti-war effort back in 90-91, but I didn't think there was any legitimacy behind it.

The major newspapers charge for their archive sections though, so I haven't been able to get very far with some searches

I'm not lying to you. If you really don't think I have it right, you can go check out the microfiche at a library. The war got MUCH more popular after we won it.

[Ted Striker]

Originally posted by GP


1. Well if someone who was a WW2 survivor chooses to debate about what the national mood and expectations were at the time of the war...and you are basing your opinions on a Flotd-like knowledge of history from being a wargame buff, I may be a tad inclined to take his opinions a bit more seriously.

2. I'm not making this up, orange. Just read some Op-ed stories from the NYT from 1990.

3. My weapons officer, LCDR Nelson Moe, from SSN 665 was detached shortly before the war and was at Riyadh as part of the staff (strike planning). He gave us a brief shortly after the war had finished. The level of success was much greater than had been expected in August 1990, when planning started.

The difference around this time is supposed to be urban combat.

My prediction is that the use of unmanned drones will make urban combat much more effective. I'm not saying it will make it "easy" but it certainly will put eyes where they weren't able to go before. Also, remember the US would have proxy fighters in on this as well.

Now, most people think of the predators, but that's not the only use of these bad boys anymore. The Marines are using unmanned recon drones at the UNIT level. So it's much easier, along with next generation thermal sensors, to peek around the corner or look through the door and see what baddies are hidden there.

There was an interesting show about Gulf War 1 where the battleship would launch these little drones, they look just like a toy airplane you would buy at those old hobby shops. They used the drones to target their big artillery guns on the battleships. These things were so accurate, that the Iraqis began to figure out the sound of them, and would start surrendering to these little model airplanes when they flew in.

These little drones are amazing, and can eliminate the threat of those Soviet anti-aircraft missles which were once so devastating to Western and Israeli airforces. Basically what happens is that they "trick" the missles into firing, thinking the little drone is a real f-16 or whatever, and they end up wasting the missle on the drone, and also the drone is so small they can't hit it anyway.

orange,

Everyone I knew at the time were scared sh1tless. We were being bombarded with news that Iraq fielded the 4th largest army in the world and they were using state of the art Soviet equipment (which hadn't yet been tested on a wide scale at that point). Everyone was surprised at how quickly it ended.

Heck, just 2 years ago, we were hearing how Afghanistan was an unwinnable war, it had eaten up two of the strongest empires ever, the British and the Soviets.

[orange]

GP - Despite your crass tone with me, I believe you, honest! I knew there was anti-war sentiment, but I was unaware of actual mainsteam news stating that the war would be anything but a quick American victory. I was just trying to find some articles to read on the subject.

Morris Library has some on micro, i'm sure, so I'll check it out when I get a chance.

[orange]

Originally posted by Ted Striker
orange,

Everyone I knew at the time were scared sh1tless. We were being bombarded with news that Iraq fielded the 4th largest army in the world and they were using state of the art Soviet equipment (which hadn't yet been tested on a wide scale at that point). Everyone was surprised at how quickly it ended.

Heck, just 2 years ago, we were hearing how Afghanistan was an unwinnable war, it had eaten up two of the strongest empires ever, the British and the Soviets.

Well, I think there's always going to be a group of people that will call any war, whether it be against a large nation like Iran or Egypt, or a small nation like Nicaragua, "another Vietnam" to get anti-war support. Now, I'm against the war on Iraq, but I don't completely buy into the proposed figures on how long a war against Iraq today will take. Will it be much different than Desert Storm - of course. I don't think it will be won quickly. But I certainly have no doubts on our ability to win such a war.

Same thing with Afghanistan. So when GP said there were lots of people talking about Desert Storm as an unwinnable war, I figured it was the same leftist we are the world crowd, and not anything legitimate.

[orange]

boy, that last line there is going to come back to bite me in the arse isn't it?

[Ted Striker]

Well what bothers me is how CONFIDENT the analysts are being. Nothing is worse than going in expecting a cake walk.

Any time in my life where I've really wanted something, I go after it scared the whole way I'm not going to get there. I overprepare, and lay so many resources after it that aren't necessary. But that assures victory -- I don't count my chickens until I'm way beyond the finish line.

The times I **** up, is when I go in overconfident, and underprepare.

I think that is universal. That's a big part of the Powell Doctrine. To strike with overwhelming force.

This time around has me worried.

[Dr Strangelove]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara


Orange, GP is correct. There was wide-spread belief that Iraq would put up some kind of resistence. At first, I said they'd be clobbered by the US, but I let myself get beat-down by the "battle-tested Iraqi army" argument (in retrospect, I have to wonder why since I knew what both US and Iraqi military capabilities were). There were also lots of news stories about Iraq's modern equipment.

Actually, considering the performance of thie "battle hardened army" against the virtually untrained Iranians I was pretty sure that Iraq was going to get creamed then.
If you knew the specs on the Iraqi "modern weapons vs. ours you'd have seen that the contest was a foregone conclusion as well.

We had pretty near parity in numbers in the southern Iraq/Kuwait/northern Saudi Arabia theater then. I'm not sure how the numbers stack up at this time though.

[KrazyHorse]

Originally posted by GP


Gulf War 1 was supposed to be a serious war also...

Can you really tell me that you think Iraq and NK are in the same ballpark?

[TCO]

Originally posted by Dr Strangelove


Actually, considering the performance of thie "battle hardened army" against the virtually untrained Iranians I was pretty sure that Iraq was going to get creamed then.
If you knew the specs on the Iraqi "modern weapons vs. ours you'd have seen that the contest was a foregone conclusion as well.

We had pretty near parity in numbers in the southern Iraq/Kuwait/northern Saudi Arabia theater then. I'm not sure how the numbers stack up at this time though.

Glad to know all the armchair generals were sure. I wasn't sure. It was my classmates out there getting legs blown off and captured as POWs. But I guess if I was more of a CIV player, I'd have known better.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Frogger


Can you really tell me that you think Iraq and NK are in the same ballpark?

Nah. Iraq is an easier case. But my point about the worry with Iraq being much worse than what resulted, still stands.

[KrazyHorse]

GP, I've never been a predictor of military failure for the US. I said you guys would win pretty handily in Afghanistan (figured you'd have to actually send in some ground troops, though) even if I thought it would take twice as long as it did. But I also remember predictions that you'd get all the top guys. Which you didn't, as far as I'm concerned. Horsie won his bet with MtG, and it looks like if proof comes it'll be to confirm that...

But NK is a lunatic asylum with a small border and which has had half a century (aided by the Chinese and Russians) to prepare for exactly what you're thinking of...

[Ted Striker]

One thing I am hypothesizing on is that North Korean invasion scenarios have probably been on the table for many years, and are probably more thought out and refined than the Iraqi scenarios, which were done ad-hoc. Again those Raytheon cave busters were developed specifically for use in Korea.

So my feeling is that the US, seems to be the most prepared, planning wise for North Korea more than any other country.

Getting resources there though would be the challenge, though Japan is close enough to get over whatever needs to get there.

[KrazyHorse]

Right, but I would think planning helps a weak defender more than a strong attacker. Time to lay mines, dig trenches, pour concrete, etc.

[TCO]

Originally posted by Frogger
Right, but I would think planning helps a weak defender more than a strong attacker. Time to lay mines, dig trenches, pour concrete, etc.

Like in Kuwait?

Getting serious, sure they have fortifications. We also do a yearly joint exercise (Ulchi Focus Lense) to fight a Korean war.