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(As to North Korea)
Here's the thing: the North Koreans are crazy. They're wacko militarist isolationists with delusions of grandeur and missile/nuke technology to back it up.
The other thing is that the US cannot afford to invade them. They can't even bomb away their nuke production capability without incurring a serious risk of causing the North Koreans (who are crazy; see point 1) to nuke Seoul, Tokyo, and anybody else within 3000 miles who so much as looks at them funny.
The US also can't afford to have the NKers develop a significant nuclear stockpile and remain starved for cash/fuel/grain. Because they will not hesitate to export their capability to less rational (!) actors on the world stage (i.e. nuclear proliferation).
So the conclusion has to be that you do not play hardball with them. Because they will play hardball right back until you have to admit that you were just bluffing (sorry about the mixed metaphor). Because they aren't bluffing. And then you look like an idiot.
So what does the current US administration do? It first off, breaks off negotiations. Then it says it won't negotiate until the NKers stop being bad boys. Then it starts to give the NKers what they want without even negotiating, and says that it's willing to talk, but not call it a negotiation, and then it makes the first offer (which is basically everything NK wants). And so far NK hasn't offered anything. It's actually gone backwards in revoking the two most salient policies (adherance to the NPT and a missile test ban).
The problem with backtracking is that you look stupid (no matter how you spin it) and you lose more than if you'd negotiated from the first instance. Brilliant.
Here's the thing: the North Koreans are crazy. They're wacko militarist isolationists with delusions of grandeur and missile/nuke technology to back it up.
The other thing is that the US cannot afford to invade them. They can't even bomb away their nuke production capability without incurring a serious risk of causing the North Koreans (who are crazy; see point 1) to nuke Seoul, Tokyo, and anybody else within 3000 miles who so much as looks at them funny.
The US also can't afford to have the NKers develop a significant nuclear stockpile and remain starved for cash/fuel/grain. Because they will not hesitate to export their capability to less rational (!) actors on the world stage (i.e. nuclear proliferation).
So the conclusion has to be that you do not play hardball with them. Because they will play hardball right back until you have to admit that you were just bluffing (sorry about the mixed metaphor). Because they aren't bluffing. And then you look like an idiot.
So what does the current US administration do? It first off, breaks off negotiations. Then it says it won't negotiate until the NKers stop being bad boys. Then it starts to give the NKers what they want without even negotiating, and says that it's willing to talk, but not call it a negotiation, and then it makes the first offer (which is basically everything NK wants). And so far NK hasn't offered anything. It's actually gone backwards in revoking the two most salient policies (adherance to the NPT and a missile test ban).
The problem with backtracking is that you look stupid (no matter how you spin it) and you lose more than if you'd negotiated from the first instance. Brilliant.
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