The Japan Card

[Ned]

Originally posted by Arrian
I agree with most of your post, except characterizing Iraq as NK's "ally." NK did what it did because they figured they would benifit. I don't think they had any intention of helping Iraq. They saw an opportunity and siezed it.

-Arrian

Arrian, I think there has to be some other explanation for the constant and seemingly unprovoked increase in rhetoric from North Korea. True, they could be acting with complete independence from Iraq. But it is also possible that they are trying to keep one of their friends in power by using these tactics.

There also a real posibility that if the UN does authorize war agaiinst Iraq and if the US is engaged in combat with Iraq, North Korean will choose this moment to see if the US can actually fight a two-front war. They must realize that if they are ever going to conquer the South, attacking while the US is fully committed elsewhere would be the best chance they will ever have.

[Arrian]

Not that I consider NK's leadership to be entirely rational, but attacking SK would be a blunder of mythic proportions, and I think the NKs know it. They could probably cause a lot of damage, but they would get stomped on in the end. Nah, this is a blackmail operation, which they have used with success in the past, and will continue to use. Because it works.

-Arrian

[mindseye]

Japan has no more capability of threatening the DPRK than does Cameroon.

Japan is also very, very rich, unlike Cameroon.

Wait - I've got it!
How about we let Japan buy the nukes from North Korea!

Added bonus: it would now be China's problem!

[Arrian]

[mindseye]

I have to agree with MtG's outlook regarding China's role. Those guys in Beijing aren't stupid. They're Communist Party leaders, they are hardball politicians. If they can, by a little judicious inaction, indirectly harm their future global opponent, at little cost to themselves, you can pretty safely bet they will smilingly take advantage of that opportunity.

They may not seek out such a situation, but they won't be stupid should something advantageous fall into their laps.

I'm afraid I can't buy any notion that China is too busy "looking inward right now" to take advantage of such an opportunity. Has the EP-3 "Spyplane" Affair already been forgotten? .

My favorite was last week's repeating of Beijing's position that the problem should be solved through dialog between the relevant parties." Having been responsible for NK's survival in the Korean War, it's hard to imagine many parties more relevant than China.

[DanS]

"I'm afraid I can't buy any notion that China is too busy "looking inward right now" to take advantage of such an opportunity."

I was referring to the very recent transfer of power. Just as Washington is preoccupied with Iraq right now.

You can see their disengagement with Iraq and more broadly the "war on terror". They have plenty of opportunity to goatfvck the US on Iraq, and have not done so. Russia has done a lot more of it.

"Having been responsible for NK's survival in the Korean War, it's hard to imagine many parties more relevant than China."

Agreed.

[mindseye]

I was referring to the very recent transfer of power. Just as Washington is preoccupied with Iraq right now.

Oh, now I see. In that case I agree! When the leadership changes here (perhaps like anywhere), a lot of things are put "on hold".