The Japan Card

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Arrian
Oh, and by the way: does Japan want nukes?

Not at you, but at the idea:

The only ideas that would be quicker for political suicide in Japan (not just for the individuals, but entire political parties) would be a suggestion of rearamament and forcible reinstitution of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere.

Giving up national sovereignty and becoming a province of (pick the country of your choice) wouldn't be as self-destructive politically.

100% tax rates and state collectivazation of all property, including the clothes on your back wouldn't be as self-destructive politically.

The Japanese go through a sham of officially pretending that US warships paying port calls or based in Japan are not carrying nuclear weapons aboard - as long as it's denied and deniable, people can look the other way.

Developing any form of domestic nuclear weapons capability can't be pretended away - there would be physical facilities, money spent in the budget, etc. - there is simply no way in hell that such a thing would happen - not in this century, or the next, or the next.

[monkspider]

MtG: What is it that makes you think that the Japanese public is so adamantly opposed to the idea of owning nuclear weapons?!?

With an economic power as huge as Japan, acquiring nuclear weapons is inevitable. Japan is already considered a "paranuclear" state. Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons. Japan could possibly produce functional nuclear weapons in as little as a year's time. On the strength of its nuclear industry, and its stockpile of weapons-useable plutonium, Japan in some respects considers itself, and is treated by others as, as a virtual nuclear weapons state and I would say that it will almost assuredly take the next step to full blown inclusion in the nuclear club within the next fifty years. If not much less.

[Dinner]

Japan is the most adimitely anti-nuclear country I've ever been to. Bar none.

[orange]

Originally posted by monkspider
MtG: What is it that makes you think that the Japanese public is so adamantly opposed to the idea of owning nuclear weapons?!?

With an economic power as huge as Japan, acquiring nuclear weapons is inevitable. Japan is already considered a "paranuclear" state. Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons. Japan could possibly produce functional nuclear weapons in as little as a year's time. On the strength of its nuclear industry, and its stockpile of weapons-useable plutonium, Japan in some respects considers itself, and is treated by others as, as a virtual nuclear weapons state and I would say that it will almost assuredly take the next step to full blown inclusion in the nuclear club within the next fifty years. If not much less.

60 years ago they would have been very interested, but not now...not for a looooong time. I'm with MtG's analysis on this one

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
The only ideas that would be quicker for political suicide in Japan (not just for the individuals, but entire political parties) would be a suggestion of rearamament and forcible reinstitution of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere.

No one is suggesting rearmament and forcible reinstitution of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere though. It appears nowhere in the original post.

While I've got you here though, How would you get China to effectively yank NK's chain and get them to behave reasonably then?

[Dinner]

The anwser to how china can stop NK was in the first post. 100% of NK energy and 60% of it's food comes from China. Stop that support and NK is a dead duck. The Koreans know this, the Chinese know this, and we know this.

[chequita guevara]

Every country in East Asia would cut off trade with Japan the moment it said it had nukes.

[orange]

Originally posted by Oerdin
The anwser to how china can stop NK was in the first post. 100% of NK energy and 60% of it's food comes from China. Stop that support and NK is a dead duck. The Koreans know this, the Chinese know this, and we know this.

and knowing is half the battle, so combined, we have 150% of the battle done

So why do we still have problems?

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by monkspider
MtG: What is it that makes you think that the Japanese public is so adamantly opposed to the idea of owning nuclear weapons?!?

With an economic power as huge as Japan, acquiring nuclear weapons is inevitable. Japan is already considered a "paranuclear" state. Japan has the raw materials, technology, and capital for developing nuclear weapons. Japan could possibly produce functional nuclear weapons in as little as a year's time. On the strength of its nuclear industry, and its stockpile of weapons-useable plutonium, Japan in some respects considers itself, and is treated by others as, as a virtual nuclear weapons state and I would say that it will almost assuredly take the next step to full blown inclusion in the nuclear club within the next fifty years. If not much less.

Because I've lived there, speak the language, and have discussed geopolitics, military issues, power projection, nuclear power and weapons, and all sorts of fun stuff with people all over the political spectrum, all over the country, and aged from high school to survivors of WWII.

The simple fact is that (backed repeatedly by polls) the Japanese would rather surrender to an invader or at most engage in post-invasion passive resistance rather than even actively fight against an invasion. This "shell-shocked" effect goes further, in that there is huge resistance to increases in the military budget in any climate, especially the current economic slump, and the consensus view is that increasing military capability is more likely, not less, to make Japan a target of future aggression.

The politics of nuclear weaponry is created largely with the help of the huge numbers of school tours of the a-bomb sites in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and a large number of anti-proliferation political groups. The populace in general is very anti-military, and politics reflects this - the Jieitai ("self-defense forces") ground forces can't even officially call themselves an army, training ops that even look slightly offense oriented have to be very very limited, and even within the ranks of the military, there's no real support for a larger power projection role, and none for NBC capability.

It will simply never happen.

edit - weird typo

edit - add: The Japanese stocks of Plutonium are from their civilian power production facilities (Suruga and others), dating back to the 1970's. They are not from weapons production or R&D programs, and there is a high degree of public accountability, because nuclear power is a sensitive issue.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by DinoDoc
No one is suggesting rearmament and forcible reinstitution of the Greater East Asia Co-prosperity Sphere though. It appears nowhere in the original post.

While I've got you here though, How would you get China to effectively yank NK's chain and get them to behave reasonably then?

I was just trying to think of something that would be more absurd and unpopular in the Japanese domestic political environment. It's hard to find things that will have support levels in the fraction of one percent range, which is about the support range for Japan becoming a nuclear power. Convicted child molesters would have a brighter political future than anyone who proposed developing a nuclear force.

China has no real interest in yanking the DPRK's chain, unless we really kiss their ass and offer them something too yummy to resist. Then after a while, they can let go of the chain.

The PRC will yank for their own benefit (telling Kimmy what will happen if he flings a megaton of **** into the global fan without a good enough reason) behind the scenes, but if NK can be a headache for Bush and undermine US foreign policy and power projection, while the PRC keeps it's hands clean, why would they object?

A diversion and thorn in the side that limits US influence and ties up political and foreign policy resources is perfect - the PRC has nothing to really lose by the present arrangement, and Kimmy is one hell of nice poker chip to be able to put on the table at the appropriate time.

[chequita guevara]

And who here thinks that the DRPK's recent anouncements aren't about putting a fly in Bush's ointment? Go ahead, raise your hands.

After all, the DPRK was tossed into the Axis of Evil to show that America wasn't solely anti-Islam. But the US can't do to the DPRK what it's trying to do to Iraq, so no we look like hypocrits to the world of Islam, since we can't come down anywhere near as hard on a country with actual WoMD programs as we are on one that we merely accuse of having programs.

Got to say, whether it was the PRC or the DPRK that thought this up, it's brialliant.

[MichaeltheGreat]

The DPRK isn't that agile. The first admission, that they had an under the table weapons program, was made after the AoE speech, but about a program that had been operating since the late 90's.

The DPRK had already started a gamble that it could bluff/blackmail more concessions after the agreed framework, but to get anything, you have to give something, so they were looking for goodies to give - they had to create something, since the DPRK isn't exactly either mineral rich, or an exotic tourist mecca

Bush's AoE blunder wasn't the cause, it was just very fortuitous so far, as it fit well with what the DPRK wants, which is to be bought off, without giving up anything of substance.

[Shi Huangdi]

MtG: Haven't there been some opposition parties that have a more active foreign policy role, with some more Japanese politcian who called for Japan to be a "normal nation"

[MichaeltheGreat]

SH/BD:

That's all about amending the MacArthur constitution, scrapping with the 1% limit on military expenditures (the game during the Reagan admin, when Japan was pressured by the US to do more military, was to spend 1.002% of GDP and see how loud the screaming was), and allowing things like participation in UN Peacekeeping missions with combat personnel. That's about it.

Even those positions have very low support, because the Japanese think in terms of a slippery slope. Eventually, some of that will come to pass, but it will still be limited to UN actions, or some similarly non-controversial international framework. If there's one thing I'd bet on, it's that nukes will be a permanent taboo.

[chequita guevara]

There is still a somewhat "strong," i.e., well-financed, fascist "movement" in Japan, mainly composed of old guardists and yakuza and the like. AFAIK, main stream Japanese think of them as kooks, dangerous thugs, but kooks nonetheless.