The Japan Card

[Dinner]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
Every country in East Asia would cut off trade with Japan the moment it said it had nukes.

I doubt that; of course, I also doubt the Japanese would bother to get nukes but much of east Asia is highly dependent upon Japanese capital. Cutting themselves off would be like economic suicide.

[orange]

i think if Japan would ever have gotten nukes, it would have done it in the past...with some guy similar to hitler talking about the humiliation of Japan at the hands of the US...but that time has since passed...

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Oerdin
100% of NK energy and 60% of it's food comes from China. Stop that support and NK is a dead duck.

DPRK doesn't produce any energy for itself?

That seems to be rather implausible.

[Adam Smith]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
A diversion and thorn in the side that limits US influence and ties up political and foreign policy resources is perfect - the PRC has nothing to really lose by the present arrangement

Precisely why PRC voted in favor of the UN Iraq resolution.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
That's all about amending the MacArthur constitution, scrapping with the 1% limit on military expenditures (the game during the Reagan admin, when Japan was pressured by the US to do more military, was to spend 1.002% of GDP and see how loud the screaming was), and allowing things like participation in UN Peacekeeping missions with combat personnel. That's about it.

There are lots of debates in Japan whether to scrap the "Peacetime constitution" (clause 9 IIRC) or not, and the Diet is now testing the waters by sending out support ships for the US navy in the Gulf region.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Oerdin
I doubt that; of course, I also doubt the Japanese would bother to get nukes but much of east Asia is highly dependent upon Japanese capital. Cutting themselves off would be like economic suicide.

I'm willing to bet they're more scared of a militarist Japan than of committing economic suicide.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
There is still a somewhat "strong," i.e., well-financed, fascist "movement" in Japan, mainly composed of old guardists and yakuza and the like. AFAIK, main stream Japanese think of them as kooks, dangerous thugs, but kooks nonetheless.

The uyoku groups comprise about half a percent at most of the population, but there's no single movement - rather, some different types with a few threads of common ground. Yakuza are pretty apolitical, but sometimes they and the uyoku groups have common smuggling or commerce interests.

Even among the right-wing nationalists, and pro-militant types, nuclear capability is a taboo subject - it might well be on their agenda if they ever took control (they won't), but it's one of the few things they could openly say that would prompt enough popular outrage to force the government to crack down and break some heads. People mostly want to look the other way, while the loonies die off (they don't get many young followers) and eventually go away.

[chequita guevara]

Shoulda been a little more clear. Their access to large amounts of money allows them to appear much bigger than their tiny numbers would normally warrant.

[MichaeltheGreat]

Originally posted by Urban Ranger


There are lots of debates in Japan whether to scrap the "Peacetime constitution" (clause 9 IIRC) or not, and the Diet is now testing the waters by sending out support ships for the US navy in the Gulf region.

That's also a token move - the "support ships" are strictly limited to non-combat roles where they can't get in harm's way, and where they can be rationalized as not really doing anything that violates the constitution.

They're just the new seaborne extension of kuroneko bin. Seriously, the argument is framed in terms of extending routine maritime patrol in international waters, ostensibly to help in interdicting terrorists, etc. It's a way to get Bush off their ass, without saying "no, we can't" but without doing anything substantial. It's not like the Iraqis or anyone else there has a navy woth speaking of.

At the rate the Japanese are testing waters, they should be ready for standard UN peacekeeping deployments by about 2050. Maybe.

[Shi Huangdi]

Maybe then China could be pressured to act on NK by threatening to arm Taiwan with nukes?

[Kontiki]

You can also look at Canada as an example of a capable but entirely unwilling nuclear power. IIRC, we had the option of being a nuclear power post-WWII, but declined. We more than have the money, the technical know-how and the nuclear plants to do it. We're about as likely as the Japanese to go through with it, though.

[Drake Tungsten]

Damn, I'm pissed that I missed this debate.

[The Mad Monk]

You're posting, aren't you? Add something!

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Shi Huangdi
Maybe then China could be pressured to act on NK by threatening to arm Taiwan with nukes?

I am pretty sure Taiwan could if they want to, but they don't want to. Why should they paint target crosses on themselves just because the US is playing a game of brinksmanship?

[Gatekeeper]

Hmm ... according to the latest news articles, North Korea is saying that any sort of economic sanctions levied against them will result in war.

I guess that rules that option out, huh?

Gatekeeper