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**ravagon** · January 24, 2003, 01:05

Originally posted by finbar

It won't be any easier this time than it would have been last time. Now - as would've been needed back then - it will mean US troops in the streets of Baghdad, massive US casualties ... which will, effectively, destroy the Bush administration in the eyes of the US voters.

I think you're assuming far too much here. This would only occur if the entire conflict went exactly according to the Iraqis script. ie: It wouldn't.
Bagdad certainly wouldn't be the first city on the list. Logically, those major centres between the staging points and the capital would be encircled and, if necessary, reduced (as callous as that sounds).
The Iraqis, however, aren't stupid. They know exactly how the last war went. They were sent out into the desert, cut off, and abandoned by their own government. Ergo the mass surrenders and retreats.
By placing themselves in the position of defending cities as strongpoints they're just asking for exactly the same treatment.
It might not happen in the first city, or the second, but at some point an encircled city will receive a proposal from an American intelligence-type, accompanied by a Turkish or Saudi General or somesuch for good measure, under a flag of truce, to declare itself an open city.
After this point there won't be any going back and future cities, seeing the alternatives, will fold up like a house of cards. Its one thing to have Saddams Guards' units and special police groups standing over you but quite another when you're surrounded and cut off from any form of help whatsoever.
Baghdad wouldn't be too different. Rhetoric and spouting propaganda about fighting to the death is fine and good but once encircled it turns into a very different story.
That'd be my take on it anyway...

[btw this thread seems to be a tad too serious. People may be in danger of being carded.

]

**finbar** · January 24, 2003, 02:59

Originally posted by ravagon

I think you're assuming far too much here. This would only occur if the entire conflict went exactly according to the Iraqis script. ie: It wouldn't.
Bagdad certainly wouldn't be the first city on the list. Logically, those major centres between the staging points and the capital would be encircled and, if necessary, reduced (as callous as that sounds).
The Iraqis, however, aren't stupid. They know exactly how the last war went. They were sent out into the desert, cut off, and abandoned by their own government. Ergo the mass surrenders and retreats.
By placing themselves in the position of defending cities as strongpoints they're just asking for exactly the same treatment.
It might not happen in the first city, or the second, but at some point an encircled city will receive a proposal from an American intelligence-type, accompanied by a Turkish or Saudi General or somesuch for good measure, under a flag of truce, to declare itself an open city.
After this point there won't be any going back and future cities, seeing the alternatives, will fold up like a house of cards. Its one thing to have Saddams Guards' units and special police groups standing over you but quite another when you're surrounded and cut off from any form of help whatsoever.
Baghdad wouldn't be too different. Rhetoric and spouting propaganda about fighting to the death is fine and good but once encircled it turns into a very different story.
That'd be my take on it anyway...

Why do you only post on Fridays? Special super-cheap internet deal or something? Connect for one day a week for 10 cents?

**ravagon** · January 24, 2003, 03:25

I've been a tad busy lately.

That was my lunch hour.

**finbar** · January 24, 2003, 06:27

Salad sandwich?

**Havak** · January 24, 2003, 06:44

It's worth bearing in mind as well that if there is to be extensive FIBUA I am sure the US will find a reason to initially deploy troops with specific training and experience in exactly that.

I see heavy UK casualties in any such deployment and President Tony won't survive that.

Last time of course we suffered some special forces casualties but most of ours were caused by a Warthog pilot who couldn't tell the 'friendly' recognition symbols on the top of our Warrior vehicle were genuine.

And what do the US do when their pilots kill friendlies? Fly them straight back to the States so they can never face justice of course.

Rugby

National cup QFs tomorrow. Away at Quins. Same opponents and venue at the same stage last two years. Lost both games.

**finbar** · January 24, 2003, 07:01

Originally posted by Havak
And what do the US do when their pilots kill friendlies?

Deny they give their pilots amphetamines to sharpen their reflexes when flying despite what the pilots themselves say.

Rugby

Hmm? What? Oh ...

**finbar** · January 24, 2003, 07:08

Originally posted by Havak

National cup QFs tomorrow. Away at Quins. Same opponents and venue at the same stage last two years. Lost both games.

This is the Powergen Cup? I just discovered it when looking up what Gloucester are up to on the weekend. Playing Saracens in another QF. But what the hell is the Powergen Cup? I notice Rotheram and Exeter are/were in the mix. Is it like an FC Cup of rugby?

**Havak** · January 24, 2003, 08:09

Deny they give their pilots amphetamines to sharpen their reflexes when flying despite what the pilots themselves say.

What really bugs me is that had an RAF pilot shot up a US armoured vehicle he would firstly have been condemned to high heaven by the US command and then the US would have sought his extradition for it I suspect.

Double standards at play.

As far as I know their pilot wasn't even dishonourable discharged for it - "mistakes happen" don't you know.

Yeah the Powergen cup is the direct equivalents of soccers FA Cup here - straight knock out competion. Powergen are just the latest sponsors - it was ther John Player cup (Glaws may even have won it back then Vulture?) then the Pilkington cup for a long time, then the Tetley Bitter cup (I approved)

and now the Powergen.

It's a tertiary concern now after Europe and the Premiership.

**finbar** · January 24, 2003, 08:49

Originally posted by Havak

What really bugs me is that had an RAF pilot shot up a US armoured vehicle he would firstly have been condemned to high heaven by the US command and then the US would have sought his extradition for it I suspect.

Double standards at play.

As far as I know their pilot wasn't even dishonourable discharged for it - "mistakes happen" don't you know.

Double standards, indeed. Remember the cable car fiasco a few years ago?

Yeah the Powergen cup is the direct equivalents of soccers FA Cup here - straight knock out competion. Powergen are just the latest sponsors - it was ther John Player cup (Glaws may even have won it back then Vulture?) then the Pilkington cup for a long time, then the Tetley Bitter cup (I approved)

and now the Powergen.

It's a tertiary concern now after Europe and the Premiership.

Jeepers! A knock-out comp on top of normal League on top of Heineken Cup on top of 6 Nations on top of touring internationals?

OTOH, it must do souls like Exeter and Rotheram good to get so far against classy opposition. I suppose that's the upside.

**Havak** · January 24, 2003, 10:17

yes hard to forget a fighter jock hitting a steel cable on a low level thrill seeker.

You are right - the Cup is perhaps now one competition too many. It does give teams other than Glaws and Tigers a chance at silver and a visit to HQ however - so on the whole I think I would like to see it stay.

Rotherham should have come up to the top flight last season but shameful politics kept them down. They are again dominating their league this year and must come up. Exeter have nowhere near the same resources so they have done exceptionally well to have a good run.

The top flight clubs come in in the fourth round proper - and that was the last round in December.

**Caligastia** · January 24, 2003, 11:05

Well I suppose you lot have to talk about something while we wait for the Super 12.

**Havak** · January 24, 2003, 11:55

Two decent clubs and ten also rans? Sounds like the Welsh League to me.

**Caligastia** · January 24, 2003, 12:19

Who are the two decent clubs?

**Havak** · January 24, 2003, 12:27

Good point.

As Tamerlin will confirm Cardiff are not one of them.

Unless you meant S12?

Sadly I am signing off for the weekend now

**Caligastia** · January 24, 2003, 12:39

Originally posted by Havak
Good point.

As Tamerlin will confirm Cardiff are not one of them.

Unless you meant S12?

Yes, I did.

Sadly I am signing off for the weekend now

Have a good one!

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