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  • I don't have the energy to think but quickly going through options it must be 3 or 4.. I'd go for 4.
    In da butt.
    "Do not worry if others do not understand you. Instead worry if you do not understand others." - Confucius
    THE UNDEFEATED SUPERCITIZEN w:4 t:2 l:1 (DON'T ASK!)
    "God is dead" - Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" - God.

    Comment


    • More than that.
      (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
      (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
      (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

      Comment


      • Balls are not replaced: twice

        Balls are replaced:

        There are 5 configurations (I use letters instead of colours, it's the same) -
        ABCD (original, config 0)
        AACD (config 1)
        AAAC (config 2)
        AACC (config 3)
        AAAA (config 4, goal)

        config 0 -> config 1 : 1 turn
        config 1: 1/2 chance remaining config 1, 1/3 chance becoming config 2, 1/6 chance becoming config 3
        config 2: 1/2 chance no change, 1/3 chance becoming config 4 (done), 1/6 chance becoming config 3
        config 3: 1/3 chance no change, 2/3 chance becoming config 2

        Then I forgot how to convert this into expectations
        Last edited by Urban Ranger; October 29, 2002, 00:25.
        (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
        (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
        (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

        Comment


        • Originally posted by Urban Ranger
          [...]config 1: 1/2 chance remaining config 1 [...]
          So you may never reach config 4.
          The books that the world calls immoral are the books that show the world its own shame. Oscar Wilde.

          Comment


          • That's true.
            (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
            (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
            (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

            Comment


            • When you toss a coin there is a possibility that it will never come up heads, but the expected number of throws to get a head is still finite at 2.
              One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

              Comment


              • Originally posted by Zero-Tau
                All rooms with square numbers have their lights flicked on. Their prime factorization would be a1^e1*a2^e2*a3^e3... with all exponents being even. Using the formula for the number of divisors (e1+1)(e2+1)(e3+1)... we see that the square numbers have an odd number of divisors, meaning that they'll end up with the lights on. Conversely, if the number of divisors is odd, then each of e1+1, e2+1, e3+1,... would be odd, meaning that all the exponents would be even, making the number a square.
                Woah, I didn't even follow all that! As soon as Sagacious Dolphin asked what property a number needs to have an odd number of factors, I just figured: "For every number, each factor will be matched with exactly one corresponding factor so that the two together multiply to the number. A factor will be matched with itself if and only if it is a root of the number, so square numbers and only square numbers will have an odd number of factors, since the factors will come in pairs, except if the number is square, in which case the root will be by itself."

                My way seems a lot simpler to me. (My explanation is a bit more wordy than my actual reasoning is complicated, trust me.)
                "God is dead." - Nietzsche
                "Nietzsche is dead." - God

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Urban Ranger
                  Balls are not replaced: twice

                  Balls are replaced:

                  There are 5 configurations (I use letters instead of colours, it's the same) -
                  ABCD (original, config 0)
                  AACD (config 1)
                  AAAC (config 2)
                  AACC (config 3)
                  AAAA (config 4, goal)

                  config 0 -> config 1 : 1 turn
                  config 1: 1/2 chance remaining config 1, 1/3 chance becoming config 2, 1/6 chance becoming config 3
                  config 2: 1/2 chance no change, 1/3 chance becoming config 4 (done), 1/6 chance becoming config 3
                  config 3: 1/3 chance no change, 2/3 chance becoming config 2

                  Then I forgot how to convert this into expectations
                  I think config 2 should be: 1/2 chance no change, 1/4 chance becoming config 4 (done), 1/4 chance becoming config 3. The rest appear to be right.

                  Assuming that's correct...

                  The expected number of turns to get to config 4 from config 0, 1, 2, or 3 is 1 plus, for each possible next state, its probability of coming next times the expected number of turns to get to config 4 from that new state. Representing the expected number of turns to get to config 4 from config x by cx, we get

                  c0 = 1 + c1
                  c1 = 1 + (1/2)c1 + (1/3)c2 + (1/6)c3
                  c2 = 1 + (1/2)c2 + (1/4)c3 + (1/4)c4
                  c3 = 1 + (2/3)c2 + (1/3)c3
                  c4 = 0

                  After a lot of algebra, we can conclude that c0 = 9, c1 = 8, c2 = 5.5, c3 = 7, and of course c4 = 0.

                  So the expected number of turns after the first draw is 8.
                  "God is dead." - Nietzsche
                  "Nietzsche is dead." - God

                  Comment


                  • OK, most of you should find this one fairly easy:

                    Three missionaries and three canibals are traveling together and come to a river. None of them can swim, but luckily, there is a boat tied to their side. It can only hold two people. For obvious reasons, the missionaries would prefer that no group of canibals ever outnumber a group of missionaries (where a group can be one, but not zero) at any one place. Figure out a way that they can maintain that condition and get everybody across the river.

                    If that's too easy for you, you might want to try the more general case of x missionaries and x canibals (I don't actually know whether that can be solved or not).
                    "God is dead." - Nietzsche
                    "Nietzsche is dead." - God

                    Comment


                    • 1 C and 1 M go over
                      1 C goes back
                      2 C go over (1 stays in boat)
                      1 M and 1 C go back
                      2 M go over
                      1 M goes back
                      1 M and 1 C go over

                      "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                      Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by JohnM2433

                        So the expected number of turns after the first draw is 8.
                        9 draws in total.

                        I'm glad you got the same answer as I did, because I had to work it out myself too. It would have been embarrasing if my calculated answer was wrong.
                        One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

                        Comment


                        • What do these words have in common:

                          Calmness
                          Canopy
                          Deft
                          First
                          Hijack
                          Laughing
                          Stupid
                          "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                          Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                          Comment


                          • rowr, new avatar!
                            "You're the biggest user of hindsight that I've ever known. Your favorite team, in any sport, is the one that just won. If you were a woman, you'd likely be a slut." - Slowwhand, to Imran

                            Eschewing silly games since December 4, 2005

                            Comment


                            • They have 3 consecutive letters that are also alphabetically consecutive.

                              Calmness
                              Canopy
                              Deft
                              First
                              Hijack
                              Laughing
                              Stupid
                              One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

                              Comment


                              • I've got one, that I'm now kicking myself over. It is deceptively simple.

                                There are nine jars, each containing a different type of liquid, but the labels have all fallen off. Knowing nothing about the contents, a passerby reapplies the labels at random. What is the expected number of correctly labeled jars?
                                One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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