How long till Iraq is at war? What happens during it, and after?

[DinoDoc]

IT"S GOING TO BE ANOTHER ZYLKA.

[Zylka]

Guys... It's going to be another MISTAR PLANTARS PEANUTS

[Pandemoniak]

Originally posted by GePap
The war shoul be quick, no more than 3 weeks, with less than 1000 American dead, though I have no clue about Iraqi dead. Lots of violent protests accross the Arab world, and then a long occupation of Iraq, a search for Saddam s arsenal to validate the invasion, and Billions for reconstruction aftre the war and 12 years of sactions. Bush will probably try to skip this last part, and loook for his next war target.

Which one could it be ?

[DinoDoc]

France of course.

[Zylka]

IT'S GOING TO BE ANOTHER VIETNAM

[Kramerman]

Originally posted by GePap

The war shoul be quick, no more than 3 weeks, with less than 1000 American dead, though I have no clue about Iraqi dead. Lots of violent protests accross the Arab world, and then a long occupation of Iraq, a search for Saddam s arsenal to validate the invasion, and Billions for reconstruction aftre the war and 12 years of sactions. Bush will probably try to skip this last part, and loook for his next war target.

Other than the general war on terrorism, i cant forsee any other major military actions. I mean, we all saw this Iraq thing coming for a long time. I am surprised it has taken this long, i was kinda expecting it under Clinton after Iraq expelled the weapons inspectors in 1998. instead he just hit them with a few cruise missles and smart bombs and caused more harm to everyone, than anything else.

[Sirotnikov]

Well aren't there some elections for one of the houses in the USA coming up?

Israeli analysts say that it won't start until after the elections.

But they are getting bussy now already.

October - November is reasonable.

[David Floyd]

Wasnt our ass handed to us after Vietnam, and havent we been skiddish of foregn intervention ever since?I mean as it is people are afraid this will become another vietnam...

Well, Vietnam was not a military defeat - the US won every major engagement, and won pretty hugely. I'm talking about military defeats, losing an entire division, that kind of thing.

If anything, this needs to be a glorious American victory, and not just militarily. We need to find the weapons of mass destruction they have been hoardng and expose their nuclear weapons development program definatively, once and for all,

What is wrong with Iraq having nukes? Israel has them, after all. And how's it any of our business?

[Sirotnikov]

Problems:

Saddam is probably already hiding in one of supposedly several underground city bunkers.

The weapons controls are probably (if they are smart) not interconnected and autonomous, like al-qaeda cells.

Let's hope it ain't the case.


How should it be won?

Special Forces eliminate Saddam, most dangerous weapons destroyed, top military command killed.

Saddam has IIRC a suicide bomber's brigade, which must be killed before it wreaks havoc or becomes a local terror threat, like al-qaeda is now in Afghanistan.


If Israel is attacked with non conventional weapons two things happen

1) lots and lots of people die in Israel
2) Iraq will glow in the dark for many many years.

[Sirotnikov]

What is wrong with Iraq having nukes? Israel has them, after all. And how's it any of our business?

"Well gee, what's wrong with this suicidal maniac having an RPG? I mean, his next door neighbour has one..."

Make a quick Civ-like evaluation of Israel compared to Iraq.


Israel is non expansionist (at least beyond judea & somaria), non aggressive, civilised democratic nation.

It's interest: the survival of the state of Israel as a jewish state.

will use non-conventional weapons only when facing assured destruction or other non-conventional weapons.


Iraq is an expansionist, aggressive, non-civilised, non-democratic nation.

Interest: survival of the regime and saddam.

will use non-conventional weapons where able. (as proven in the iraq iran war, and inner iraqi population cleansing)

[David Floyd]

Israel is non expansionist (at least beyond judea & somaria), non aggressive

It's interest: the survival of the state of Israel as a jewish state.

Restated: The maintenance of a state in place primarily for members of a certain ethnicity. Why is this a good thing, again?

Iraq is an expansionist, aggressive, non-civilised, non-democratic nation.

Interest: survival of the regime and saddam.

will use non-conventional weapons where able. (as proven in the iraq iran war, and inner iraqi population cleansing)

Basically, restated again: Iraq doesn't have elections - even though Saddam is actually pretty popular - and has invaded other nations in the past. Such as Panama and Grenada. Ooops, sorry, that's the US.

And they'll also use non-conventional methods to gas their own people. Horrible, horrible thing, of course, but were you aware that the Turks have killed more Kurds than Saddam has?

And none of what you said makes the existence of Iraqi nuclear weapons any of America's business.

[Sirotnikov]

The maintenance of a state in place primarily for members of a certain ethnicity. Why is this a good thing, again?

So that there would be 1 place in the world where this ethnicity will have self determination and self-rule and will live as a majority?

Or are you also against a Palestine for palestinians, a Basque state for Basques and so on?

Basically, restated again: Iraq doesn't have elections - even though Saddam is actually pretty popular - and has invaded other nations in the past. Such as Panama and Grenada. Ooops, sorry, that's the US.

Saddam is popular?

With whom? The kurds he slays? The citizens whose welfare aid he pockets?

Do you know that each time a person makes an interview in Iraq, there is a security officer present, to make sure the person speaks what the govt. wants?

And they'll also use non-conventional methods to gas their own people. Horrible, horrible thing, of course, but were you aware that the Turks have killed more Kurds than Saddam has?

Here's your problem again - you are so excited about numbers that you forget that they mean nothing without circumstance.

Turkey did not use non-conventional weapons to the best of my knowledge, nor does it has serious stocks of such weapons.

Turkey is more or less a civilised country and is not expansionist.

Iraq however, is not civilised and is therefore a threat. And if the lunatic gets nukes, the world is in even bigger threat.

Once someone is a threat to me, it is my damn business to deal with the threat and neutralize it.

If you have a pyromaniac, you try to keep him away from matches. As simple as that.

And cut throwing that crap about people's business around. America is in a position where it can make anything it's own business, that is first. Second - A threat to America or it's allies is it's business.

[Kramerman]

What is wrong with Iraq having nukes? Israel has them, after all. And how's it any of our business?

uhh... Israel is not a threat to us and Iraq is...

[Thrawn05]

Dec 02... because Bush promised congress that the US won't do anything until after the elections.


Why Saddam... besides the fact that even UBL thinks he's the devil?

HE HAS NOTHING TO LOSE!

N. Korea, Iran, China, Russia, Israel, etc... all have nukes but have somthing to lose if they use them.

Saddam knows he will lose, so he will perform the greatest evil, the "If I'm going down I'm bringing you with me".

He will make this war miserable and long as best he can. That means human sheilds and gasing the city. Also draggin Israel into the battle by throwing some missiles at them.

All you need to take Iraq is Bagdad, and with that in mind, the rest of the country is easy pickens for the US.

Iraq's military is very weak (check out the Jane's site). The only army the US will face in force is the Republican Guard (btw, a funny name for a dictator's army ). The RG are similar to the Japanese, die to the last with Bonzai attacks.


So IMHO, Iraq will fall withing 1 to 2 months. After that the nation building proccess begins. Now people cry that we will be there for 20-30 years but I say look at S. Korea, we were there for how long now?

[Promethus]

Looks Like Dec 02


Move to Gulf by Key Unit Could Set Staff for Iraq War
By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT


WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 — The United States Central Command is planning to send much of its staff to Qatar, in the Persian Gulf, in a move that Pentagon officials said would form the core of a battle staff that could run a war against Iraq.

About 600 officers under the command of Gen. Tommy R. Franks, about a quarter of his staff, will move to Qatar in November, military officials said. The purpose is to test the ability to deploy a headquarters rapidly in a crisis and to carry out a war game, the officials said.

But Pentagon officials said it was likely that the staff members would remain in the Persian Gulf after the exercise is complete and form the basis of a planning group for a military campaign against Iraq. General Franks is also planning to go to Qatar to take part in the exercise.

In essence, the American military is trying to put things in place so it has a running start in any campaign to oust Saddam Hussein.

The plans to move the battle staff follows repeated private entreaties by General Franks in recent months to shift his operations to the Persian Gulf region. Military officials said he had long been pushing to establish a forward command center.

President Bush convened a top-level meeting at the White House on Monday to discuss Iraq, and General Franks was there with Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

The Central Command headquarters is situated in Tampa, Fla., because Arab nations are uneasy about playing host to a major American command. But it is necessary to establish a forward command center to oversee a major military operation.

During the 1991 Persian Gulf war, Gen. H. Norman Schwarzkopf established a forward headquarters in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. But relations with the Saudis are strained and they have made it clear that they would not welcome an expanded American presence. So the focus of interest has shifted to Qatar.

As a small nation in a volatile part of the world, Qatar has been willing to accept an expanded American presence even as the Saudis have become more resistant. The United States conducted air attacks from Qatar during its campaign to topple the Taliban in Afghanistan, but at that time the existence of the United States Air Force units there was considered a military secret.

Qatar did not officially decide to acknowledge the buildup of American forces until Vice President **** Cheney visited Al Udeid Air Base there in March.

The United States is developing the base, establishing an air command center there. American war planes operate from the base, providing a backup in case the Saudis do not allow the American military to use one in Saudi Arabia.

The 15,000-foot runway at Al Udeid is the longest in the region. Still, new runways and parking ramps have been added. Hangers have been fortified to protect the American warplanes from bombing raids.

By moving much of General Franks's headquarters staff to the gulf, the United States will take an important step toward mounting a military campaign in Iraq.

Even the war game that the battle staff is scheduled to conduct, code-named Internal Look, is likely to be an important preparation. In 1990, shortly before Iraq invaded Kuwait, the Central Command conducted a war game that evaluated the ability to repel an attack by Iraq.

A spokesman for the Central Command said the United States had made no decisions beyond testing its ability to deploy a headquarters and conducting the war game. "It is a command-post exercise which will test our command, control and communications," the spokesman said.

There are other signs of war preparation. Army equipment that was stored in Al Udeid was put on a ship and moved to Kuwait as part of the exercise, but the army secretary, Thomas White, said that it was a logistics exercise and that the equipment was moved back.

Most of General Franks's subordinate commanders have already moved their headquarters to the region to help fight the war in Afghanistan and prepare for a potential war in Iraq, among other contingencies. The Army has forward headquarters in Kuwait, the Marines in Bahrain and the Air Force has a headquarters in Saudi Arabia. The Navy has long had a headquarters in Bahrain.