Turkey's Government Crumbling.

[Faeelin]

Originally posted by paiktis22
and you forgot to say that we also have nice beaches.

Eh. the beaches in France are better.

[Bereta_Eder]

no way.

[The Pioneer]

Originally posted by Faeelin



Eh. the beaches in France are better.

Now that's a lie if I ever heard one, and it makes me

[Bereta_Eder]

faelin is just mad at me from previous trolling and will try to take a pot shot at me whenever possible.

It's funny all my "friends" came to this thread

[KrazyHorse]

Lose a third of their country if the Armenians and Kurds get a nation

Call me crazy, but I thought that Armenia already existed...

[Bereta_Eder]

90% of its territories have been taken by Turkey after the armenian.. err... genocide
If you think Greece/Turkey are hostile (which are not so really) you should see Amernia/Turkey

[Shi Huangdi]

:"and the turkish minority were not saved but condemned to decades of oppression and misery by mainland turksish fascists"

As opposed to being massacred by the Greeks?


"there is already a military regime and cant keep order to its politician pawns."

Bull****. There isn't a military regime in Turkey. Why would there be so much infighting among Politicians if all that was at stake was being a puppet. The military has strong influence, but it is not a military dictatorship.

"the situation is not in its control always"

The military has thrown it's full weight into the situation. If needed, the Turkish military has a huge army that it used to putting down insurgencies.

Erix, don't mind Paitkis, he is an Ultra- Right Wing nationalist who supports Terrorism and hate Turks.

[Bereta_Eder]

I'm pretty happy right now, so I won't bother.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Right on Erix but it's not a hostile discussion it's a fun discussion and I do not think anybody takes these comments as the truth

Except Patikis .

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Chris 62
Sounds like Turkey will either:

Go Islamic as the people want, and default on it's loans

Have a military coup, in which hardliners will try to control an unruly populance

Have a civil war, with several factions

Lose a third of their country if the Armenians and Kurds get a nation.

None of it looks very appealing.

None of the above -- at least, not initially.

Here's what seems to be the deal. Elections will be called for October or November. Of the three parties in the ruling coalition, the DSP -- the prime minister's party -- will almost certainly not get enough votes to make it into the parliament (the threshold is an absurdly high 10%). The other two parties in the coalition might survive if the elections are held in November, but probably won't if the elections are held in October (because they won't have had enough time to spin the crisis as "not our fault"). Those two parties are (1) the Motherland party, which might be returned to parliament if it aggressively promotes its pro-EU stance and everyone forgets about the myriad scandals they were enmeshed in two years ago; and (2) the National Movement Party, a hard Right (or, if you prefer, crupto-fascist) party which might be returned to parliament if they can marshall all the anti-EU, anti-Islamic, anti-Kurdish votes in the country.

So the parliament in 2003 would probably consist of:
- The new party Cem has founded, which will run on a strong pro-Western coalition
- The True Path party, which is pro-EU but willing to accomodate Islamicists
- Justice and Progress Party, which hass Islamicist roots but claims to be secular and pro-EU, modeling themselves on European Christian Democratic parties
- possibly the Republican People's Party -- Ataturk's old party -- which will be ideologically very much like Cem's new party
- possible Motherland (pro-secular, pro-EU)
- possibly National Movement (pro-secular, anti-EU)

The big question is what kinds of coalitions will produce a government. The best bets are either (1) a pro-EU coalition government consisting of Cem's party, True Path, and either Republican People's or Motherland, or (2) True Path in coalition with Justice and Progress (effectively the make up of the last government before Ecevit's; Justice and Progress is the latest successor to the Islamicist party that joined with True Path in the mid-90s).

There will be no civil war. There will be no loan default (National Movement might want that, but they won't be part of a ruling coalition). There will be no military coup, at least not initially. There ill be, believe it or not, free elections and the peaceful transfer of power.

Of course, an autumn invasion of Iraq by the US could color all of this -- and I can't even guess how.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Rufus, which one is the 'White Party' that is the one that is getting the west a little aprehensive?

[chequita guevara]

My favorite Turkish party is the Party of Love and Revolution.

[MarkG]

There ill be, believe it or not, free elections and the peaceful transfer of power.

not meant as an attack, rufus, and thank you for the analysis, but you are talking about free elections after the ban of the islamic party that had taken over 20% some 2 years ago, right?

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by MarkG

There ill be, believe it or not, free elections and the peaceful transfer of power.

not meant as an attack, rufus, and thank you for the analysis, but you are talking about free elections after the ban of the islamic party that had taken over 20% some 2 years ago, right?

Yes, "Free" here is relative. I simply mean there won't be soldiers policing the voting, and that the parties that win really will be seated.

[Rufus T. Firefly]

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Rufus, which one is the 'White Party' that is the one that is getting the west a little aprehensive?

That's Justice and Progress. It's headed by the popular former mayor of Istanbul, Recep Erdogan, who has a long history of involvement with now-banned Islamicist parties (see MarkG's comments and my reply, above). There's some speculation that the desire by the current govt to stall elections until November is about having maximum time to smear Erdogan and/or legally maneuver him off any ballot. Erdogan swears he's not an Islamicist anymore -- that he supports EU ascension and the principles of a secular state -- but it's hard to know whether he can be believed. Even if he's being honest, though, it's hard to imaging that a government that included his party -- and might very well make him prime minister -- would continue to support blindly US actions against Iraq or other Muslim nations. That's almost certainly the cause of Western concern, much more so than teh status of the IMF loans.