Stalin Math on the sub-Continent

[Imran Siddiqui]

They won't be persuaded. Believe me. The leaders know if they don't launch, they are out in the next election.

[moomin]

Perhaps they'll simply take the cash and go. The next government can then blame them and cash in on the compensations.

And I'm sure living grandly in, say, the Bahamas, with a $100M bank account to draw on beats being a Indian cabinet member anyday.

Not to mention all the articles they can write in liberal media about the importance of restraint and containment. If they play their cards right there might even be a Nobel Peace Prize in there somewhere.

But, ultimately, I agree with you. I think the'll go for the instant parking-lot option too.

[Tom201]

As I understood it, Pakistan would use their nukes first against the troops India is massing on the border, and which will be used for an invasion + military basis. So this is
1) a diffrent quality than nuking cities moraly speaking. If india would respond with nuking cities, they had the "moral disadvantage" so to speak.
2) I would expect they'd be able to kill enough Indian troops and material with nukes, with the result that India cant win conventional.

[Imran Siddiqui]

That is the intriguing thing Tom... how would the world react to nukes being used tactically, against military units, as opposed to cities. Would it cause the same moral revulsion? That is something that is very, very hard to answer.

[axi]

Well, there's a chance the Indians will try to eat the nukes the Pakis dish out, calmly taking their losses - it really doesn't even put a dent in their demographics anyway - and walk over Pakistan conventionally. In which case the can run the fourth reich there for a decade or so without anybody saying a word.

Yes, but there is a catch in here: who would be risking getting his ass nuked for the sake of the fatherland? Suppose that the govt itself has enough bunkers to hide in, however the indian government is supported by it's national bourgeoisie who would never risk an A-bomb being dropped on them. It's like living in Washington DC and supporting a nuke attack on China or sth; you will be the first to taste their retaliation, so you're actually suicidal.

The population density in that part of the world is really mind-dazzling. A Hiroshima-type bomb would have many millions of casualties over there.

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And of course, all you wise strategists who give India the advantage, you forget that, if China gets involved, with nukes or conventionally, the Indians will get crushed. That is what's keeping the balance in the region actually.

[MrFun]

Originally posted by Dalgetti
Imran : This is a false pretence, and it seems that Jack Straw went with the Indians , at his latest visit to New Delhi.

now Geography question. everyone's allowed to participate , except Mr. Fun.

Where is Delhi?

It's in India dumb ass.

[Urban Ranger]

axi,

I don't see China getting involved. At any rate, both countries are being leaned upon at some summit or another right now.

[Az]

UR : are there enough transportation routes through the Himalaya for a possible Chinese invasion of India? hypothetically speaking , of course.

[moomin]

China already is a player (little known fact: the reds already occupy a fair part of Kashmir), but I don't see them joining this particular party if they can help it. Modern chicom are in it for the cash, not for the glory of Mao.

But if they came in, their main effort would probably be directed ágainst India - so the Pakis might attempt to draw them in by using Chinese Kashmir as an area form which they bombard Indian Kashmir... they already got plenty of experience crossing those lines without having to wait for proper authorization, after all.

Now, that might backfire. While India and China haven't ever been exactly chummy, China has cooled toward Pakistan considerably lately, as their own problems with Muslim separatists have mounted. If the Pakis use nukes first, perhaps China will actually decide to cut its diplomatic losses by coming in on the Indian side, dividing Paki Kashmir and Pakistan with India...

The Chicoms can probably assist the Indians with a real good repression programme as well.

[Sikander]

Originally posted by Dalgetti
now Geography question. everyone's allowed to participate , except Mr. Fun.

Where is Delhi?

I'm not sure if it's the right deli, but there's one right down the street from me.

[Bereta_Eder]

there are 3 of them. the one, the new and a video store with that name in my neighborhood. has some great actors posters... tottally unknown... i'd rent but i doubt they'd have subtitles... their movie industry is bigger than hollywood you know...

[Dr Strangelove]

I'd like to point out that India has more "megapolis" sized cities. If the Pakistanis decided to target population centers the net "visual" impact of the destruction of these cities would be quite demoralizing to the entire Indian nation. Even if the poulation loss was a mere fraction of a percent of the total national population of India the shock value of the loss of New Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, etc., to the Indian people would be tremendous. They might be able to carry on long enough to extract a surrender from the also devastated Pakistan, but there is no telling what the long term political "fallout" would be. My guess is that at least the Congress party would find itself back in power. I think there would be considerable political "fallout" on the world scene too. No major world leader would be able to offer an insincere lackluster expression of regret for such a world tragedy.

[Urban Ranger]

The good news is both sides are now pressured into a peace conference hosted by Russia.

Originally posted by Dalgetti
UR : are there enough transportation routes through the Himalaya for a possible Chinese invasion of India? hypothetically speaking , of course.

The terrain on the Chinese side of the border is some of the most difficult in the world, so transportation is possible, but slow. There is no direct rail link AFAIK, maybe a low grade road or two. The area ir deal for defense but hellish to attack (from).

[RedFred]

This is scary, scary stuff.

India, China and Pakistan must have a huge portion of humanity's total population within their borders, I'm wildly guessing [no doubt to be quickly corrected by an alert poster] 2.5 to 3 billion people. Even losing a tiny fraction of this number would still be a huge amount of people and an incalculable tragedy.

[KrazyHorse]

Closer to 2.5

China's at ~1.2, IIRC, India's just over a billion and pakistan has 145 million.