Did the Axis have any chance at all in WWII?

[Fidel]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Yes, Poland kicked Russia's ass in the 1920s.

they barely avoided becoming polish soviet socialist republic. saved by the bell.

[Fidel]

Originally posted by orange
Russo-Japanese war? That was a Japanese victory

KH, Orange,
He was, I reckon, thinking about Khalkhin-Gol incident where in 1937 Zhukov kicked Japanese ass over some distant contested steppes. He was pretty able to utilize Russian armor superiority, and the Japanese made sure not to face Russian army again. That's why they started sewing tropical outfits.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Ned
Germany had to take Moscow in 1941 and force Soviet capitulation.

Wouldn't happen even if the Nazis took Moscow. Stalin had plans for a war time capital, he just never needed it.

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by David James
The central point is that Germany's assault on Russia very nearly succeeded in 1941 as it was, and the extra troops and supplies (and not screwing around in the Balkans and Greece for 6 weeks) that would have been afforded by not having to occupy the rest of Europe would have been enough to tip the balance.

Hard to say at this point. If Germany didn't pacify the Balkins and Greece that could post a severe problem to the supply lines. It seems implausible that the the whole Eastern Front would change dramatically with a few extra Nazi divisions with low grade equipment. Remeber too the fighting in the West gave those German troops much needed combat experience and time to iron out the bugs in the blitzkrieg doctrine.

[Dom Pedro II]

I think in the end Russia was just too vast to possibly control. Even if the Soviet Union became a politically dead entity from a successful Nazi invasion (which is somewhat feasible) partisan fighting would have gone on, and it is unlikely that Hitler have possibly consolidated his control over all of Russia. If they took Moscow and the Soviets collapsed, then another political group would move into the Urals where the factories were and the fighting would continue.

[Urban Ranger]

Napoleon took Moscow. A lot of good that did him.

[David Floyd]

serb,

Even if he took the Moscow, it changed nothing we’ve keep fought till last man.

Moscow was a huge communications and transportation hub. Fighting to the last man does you no good if you can't transport, supply, or talk to many of your solders.

Wouldn't happen even if the Nazis took Moscow. Stalin had plans for a war time capital, he just never needed it.

Yes, at Kuibyshev. Of course, Kuibyshev was not a central transportation and communications hub, like Moscow.

Hard to say at this point. If Germany didn't pacify the Balkins and Greece that could post a severe problem to the supply lines. It seems implausible that the the whole Eastern Front would change dramatically with a few extra Nazi divisions with low grade equipment. Remeber too the fighting in the West gave those German troops much needed combat experience and time to iron out the bugs in the blitzkrieg doctrine.

That is true - the Germans needed more time, not more men. All they kept in the West were 35 low grade divisions (for the most part) that really wouldn't have been too useful.

Napoleon took Moscow. A lot of good that did him.

*shrug* Apples and oranges - different time period, different campaign.

[jdjdjd]

The Germans could have held most of Europe if not for their stupidity in invading Russia. Had they consolidated their efforts on Britain, Britain would have eventually fell. The problem with the Axis was that they never really thought it out. Keep US and Russia at bay, and they would have so much. Too bad the smartest of them and least psychotic, was the weakest (Mussolini), or things may have been different.

[David Floyd]

Had they consolidated their efforts on Britain, Britain would have eventually fell.

How?

[Faeelin]

Originally posted by Serb
Even if he took the Moscow, it changed nothing we’ve keep fought till last man.

For the first time ever, I'll agree with Serb. Russia might've collapsed if Hitler had treated the Ukrainians and such better (We've come to free you from the soviets and givey our your own tinpot dictators! Rejoice!).

But the atrocities by the Nazis made it so that the only option was victory or death for russia, and Russia had more troops, resources, and perhaps a greater will as well.

Even if the Germans get into Moscow, they can't do much there. A few days, weeksat most, and the soviet forces drive em back out.

Or would you care to explain whyt he Soviets wouldnt' fight as hard for their capital as for Stalingrad?

[Ned]

As all know, I believe it was over for the Axis when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. But it is clear that events drove Japan to attack. Diplomatic communiques reveal that on Nov. 20, 1941, Japan had decided that negotiations had to be successful, or else war was required. I give you a quote from Tojo.

8. Around November 20th [1941], conditions were on the verge of deteriorating even further. In order to avoid a rupture of diplomatic relations, the government resisted strong pressures from the high command and made a proposal containing a number of concessions.

But what "deterioration" happened on or just before Nov. 20, 1941? The following is the only significant event that I can find:

November 18th, 1941...German troops attacking Venev, on the southern pincer drive to Moscow, are themselves counterattacked by a Siberian division and an armored brigade. These forces bring something new to the battlefield: white fur coats for the Siberian infantry and the T-34 tank, whose American Christie suspension, sloping armor, and 76mm gun make it one of the most powerful in the world. The Germans fight back, but the extreme cold freezes their automatic weapons. The Germans panic. "This was the first time that such a thing had occurred during the Russian campaign, and it was a warning that the combat ability of our infantry was at an end, and that they should no longer be expected to perform difficult tasks." Quoting the German commander.

I believe it is "clear" that the failure to take Moscow, the Soviet counerattack, the introduction of the T34 and the panic of German troops forced Japan's hand despite their denials. I can only imagine what Hitler had to say to the Japanese ambassador the morning of the 19th.

Ned

[David Floyd]

Faeelin,

Or would you care to explain whyt he Soviets wouldnt' fight as hard for their capital as for Stalingrad?

The proper course would have been to envelop Moscow in a classic double encirclement (as in Kiev), destroy the remaining <100,000 armed troops defending Moscow, and let the city starve. Those 100,000 men were high quality troops without which a Soviet counterattack would have been difficult, to say the least, even assuming a counterattack could have been mounted with broken transportation, communication, and supply networks and in the midst of a government transfer to Kuibyshev.

Ned,

But what "deterioration" happened on or just before Nov. 20, 1941? The following is the only significant event that I can find:

No, the deterioration was that Japan was running out of oil and other resources, and without them would be pretty much forced to withdraw from China - an incredible loss of face to the Army in a society in which face is everything.

[Ned]

Originally posted by David Floyd
Ned,



No, the deterioration was that Japan was running out of oil and other resources, and without them would be pretty much forced to withdraw from China - an incredible loss of face to the Army in a society in which face is everything.

David, Could provide a link to anything that would support your contention? Ned

[David Floyd]

David, Could provide a link to anything that would support your contention? Ned

My contention is actually fairly common knowledge. No, I can't provide you a link off the top of my head, but it is a well known fact that Japan was almost out of oil, because of the embargo, and without oil it's navy could not operate, nor could its mobile ground forces, which would force a withdrawal from most of China.

[David Floyd]

If you need a source for the oil embargo or Japan's reserves of oil for wartime consumption, I'd recommend checking out the military history section of a decent bookstore. Liddel Hart's "History of the Second World War" is a fairly basic overview, but (IIRC) it provides such figures.