Who said Afghanistan wouldn't be another Vietnam...

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
homework, HAHAHA.

anywho, the fact is, the talioban troops took out the helicopters. they also have defensive terrain. it is so easy for them to post a few snipers somewhere, and take out about 10-20 troops before they even find the sniper.


i dont think YOU have anysense of whats going on, and how hard it is to fight a gurrila campaighn.... i dont actually know of a gurrila situation where the gurrila's lost.

Oh forget the damn homework for now.

Umm, work a little on your spelling.

I don't think Al Qaeda or the Taliban have enough ammo to take out that many troops.

I don't think you have any sense on what is really going on because you seem to be ignorant on what equipiment the Taliban and Al Qaeda really have.

I know of several scenarios where guerrillas have lost in a guerrilla situation... well Colombia very soon... Argentina (they took out 5,000 Rebels in the 70s/80s along with 40,000 civilians). So you can see the guerrilla's most likely lose. Angola is another example where the net is tightening on the UNITA rebels.

So do a little more studying before making assertions.

[The Andy-Man]

well, its not hard for them to get weapons. theres a little place called pakistan, i beleive it is in a northern province were there is no law, basically, and guns are on sale aevery where. so, its not hard for them to get what they havnt got.

and i am not only speaking of the taliban, in the event of a civil war, then there is a whole new ball games.

5,000 rebels isnt many.....


and spelling, well, i have no excuse.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by The Mad Monk
Unlikely--I don't no about where you are (where are you, again?) but here in the NYC area people are still aware of the empty space that used to be the towers.

I'm from Mississippi.

I tend to agree with this statement. This latest change in tactics seems to be a despperate Hail Mary pass on the part of the Democrats. That's what suprised me about Lott's over the top reaction to it. If he had played the situation a lot more coolly, Senator Daschle's gambit might have blown as soon as he delivered it.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
well, its not hard for them to get weapons. theres a little place called pakistan, i beleive it is in a northern province were there is no law, basically, and guns are on sale aevery where. so, its not hard for them to get what they havnt got.

and i am not only speaking of the taliban, in the event of a civil war, then there is a whole new ball games.

5,000 rebels isnt many.....


and spelling, well, i have no excuse.

If there is no law in this region you speak of why are there several divisons of Pakistani Troops there guarding? It is very hard for them to get because you are not studying the maps. They are spread out in a small area encircled by American/Friendly Afghan Forces.

[The Andy-Man]

well, the pakistani govt. is just as corrupt and evil imo anyway. also, lets not forget, there are many ways of smuggling weapons to these caves. no one knows where they open out, there could easily be cave tunnel from east afghanistan to south that we dont know of.

[DinoDoc]

Ecthelion, I hope that this wasn't what you had in mind when you started this thread.

[The Andy-Man]

well, he figered without the lesbian man woman element



EDIT: put fingered and not figured :|

[Seeker]

I do not believe the Afghanistan situation will be as easy as the US public is being led to believe for morale purposes.

The 'cave-buster' will turn out to be the next Patriot missile.

However, I do not think the conflict will become like Viet Nam. There is no equivalent to North Vietnam or the USSR in this conflict.

There are no enemy factories, SAM sites, or tanks, or planes. This is problem as well as a positive. There is no Western public support of the enemy. There will be no 'Tet offensive'.

But a mini-viet nam in the sense of dragging on and on and on? Engagements at the squad level over a decade? Yes, quite possibly.
But I think the Americans will 'tough it out'.

Because unlike Viet Nam there is a clear moral superiority, and some blood to avenge. Even when they finally realize that all the bunker-busters and 40 000 ft bombings won't do it, Americans will still be willing to keep a few companies out there, getting dirty, knowing that it WON'T be over next year, or the year after, but still sitting out there, grinding down the enemy, proving their resolve. And then one day the enemy will be too old, to weak, and too shell-shocked to care anymore, and things will just slowly grind down.

[Goingonit]

Combat casualties are (AFAIK) still in the single digits. 4 orders of magnitude to go.

[DinoDoc]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
well, he figered without the lesbian man woman element

This was such an interesting thread before idiots got a hold of it. Points finger at Andy.

Seeker: But a mini-viet nam in the sense of dragging on and on and on? Engagements at the squad level over a decade?

If it must turn into another historical guerrilla war, I foresee a mini repeat of the US experience in the Philippines. IIRC, the US won that one.

[The Andy-Man]

dobnle digits. including 'accidents' that happend when they first started, i believe the US has had about 20deaths nows. not many, but alot considering that only about (at most) 2000 troops (of mixed nationality) are there, i could be rong about this number though.

and as i said, there is a highly likly chance of an all out civil war. thats when the real problems will start.

[MrFun]

Maybe after World War II lasted for four months, Great Britain and the United States should have screamed, "It's taking too long!" and just have called it quits.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by The Andy-Man
well, the pakistani govt. is just as corrupt and evil imo anyway. also, lets not forget, there are many ways of smuggling weapons to these caves. no one knows where they open out, there could easily be cave tunnel from east afghanistan to south that we dont know of.

There could be an asteroid headed for earth that we don't know of... but take a look at it this way we don't know of it. And yes the Pakistani govt is corrupt... and that is why it is accepting aide and upgrades on the F-16s it has. And for that it will help the US.

Read up on the news... please.

[Sikander]

So much ignorance, so little time...

Afghanistan is not on the brink of civil war, it has been in a civil war for over 20 years. Whether the civil war will end soon is an open question. Certainly the Taliban remnants and al Quaida scum have to be eliminated. After that the question of whether the interim government is capable of ruling the country will come into sharper focus.

As has been pointed out, the remaining al Quaida / hard core Taliban are very limited in numbers and lack the support of even a minor power to keep them supplied and give them political legitimacy. Add to that the fact these forces also lack a base area which can even feed them. They are reduced to bribing and begging in very barren, remote and poor areas. Their only advantage is their altitude which limits the effectiveness of U.S. helicopters, while the advantages they cede to the U.S. are numerous. They are outnumbered, outsupplied, and their political base is a segment of a population which does not actually have political / military control of any territory.

The fact that they are concentrated in this current battle shows just how desperate they really are. A real guerilla force with political support would be dispersed in order to frustrate U.S. firepower. Time would be on their side. The fact that these guys are concentrated on the defense shows that they don't have much territory (or their supplies are limited to a certain area) and it also shows that they don't have the initiative. This is hardly a prescription for success. Hopefully we can draw the noose tight and finish most of the men in this pocket.

[Goingonit]

I'd say the most accurate historical parable if this goes badly would be the American actions against Pancho Villa in the early 20th Century. Vietnam was, as I pointed out, a much bigger war, in terms of manpower, and much more standard politically.