The future of the EU

[Hoek]

Whaddya think? What shape will the EU eventually take?

[Goingonit]

-Military integration and confederation is my guess. For one thing, almost all of the EU is going to be in NATO.

[Hoek]

Austria and Sweden are never going to be in NATO

[Goingonit]

Originally posted by Hoek
Austria and Sweden are never going to be in NATO

But my point is the military capability of the portion that will be in NATO will already be integrated, so it will make sense for them to do the same thing within the EU.

[Giancarlo]

The EU will become a banana. No seriously it won´t go too far. Spain and Italy differ in politics than Germany or any of the rest of the EU. Spain and Italy are mainly right-wing conservative. While countries like Germany are socialist.

[Hoek]

Actually, there isn't that large of an overlap right now. I probably can't list all of the countries, but I'll try:

EU: Ireland, Britain, Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Greece, Austria, Italy, Portugal, plus one more that I don't know(15)

NATO: US, Canada, Iceland, Britain, Denmark, Norway, Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Portugal (19)

Overlap: Britain, Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Portugal, Italy (11)

EU-Only: Ireland, Sweden, Austria, and the one I don't know

NATO-Only (that are still in Europe): Iceland, Norway, Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary

Countries that are up for admission:

NATO: Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia

EU: Malta, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey

[Goingonit]

Actually I'd argue that that's a pretty big overlap especially when you consider the up-for-admission countries.

[Hoek]

I have serious doubts about whether military integration can last (even though I voted for it since it's gonna happen...I just don't know if it will last or be any good). Look at all the Yugoslavia wars: it was primarily US military power that was brought to force in "NATO" operations...the British helped too. Our European friends really dropped the ball on this one...they proved that they are still unable to deal with situations using their own military. A standing EU force is now being developed (and said to start operations as an EU force this weekend), but I have serious doubts about their effectiveness at the end of the day. There is no true "EU Identity" as there is a "US identity," so nationalism will play a significant role in any EU operations, thereby hampering their effectiveness. They will have a pretty large task in securing Afghanistan, and this will be an important test for the EU. If they aren't able to get the job done, expect a halt to any integration beyond monetary.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by Hoek
EU: Ireland, Britain, Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Greece, Austria, Italy, Portugal, plus one more that I don't know(15)

Stefu can tell you the other one.

[Stefu]

EU: Ireland, Britain, Spain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Greece, Austria, Italy, Portugal, plus one more that I don't know(15)

Then again, you have an obvious death wish.

[Hoek]

Also: the EU will be "borrowing" NATO facilities for its fighting force since the EU is deficient in military infrastructure.

The countries that don't overlap are quite important, however. Turkey is probably the most important one. The EU has been really *****y about Turkey admission, despite the inevitable benefit of projecting European power and influence into the Middle East, and would also be a significant stabilizing force for Turkey. They're just being *****es about the death penalty, that's all.

Sweden and Austria are both technically "neutral" countries, which poses significant questions in terms of EU-NATO cooperation.

Norway stays out of the EU so that it can bypass is maritime rules.

Oh, and Cyprus is also up for admission into the EU. That should be fun!

Germany is socialist? Hardly! They are about as socialist as the United States is.

[Hoek]

OK, OK, Finland too! Stefu: which EU countries are participating in the Euro? I know that Britain, and Denmark are definitely not, and I know that France, Germany, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg are, but I don't know about the rest.

[Stefu]

Britain, Sweden and Denmark are the damnable countries slacking from their integratory duties.

[Hoek]

Stefu and Dolphin: obviously, you didn't see my signature

[Goingonit]

Originally posted by Hoek
Also: the EU will be "borrowing" NATO facilities for its fighting force since the EU is deficient in military infrastructure.

The countries that don't overlap are quite important, however. Turkey is probably the most important one. The EU has been really *****y about Turkey admission, despite the inevitable benefit of projecting European power and influence into the Middle East, and would also be a significant stabilizing force for Turkey. They're just being *****es about the death penalty, that's all.

Sweden and Austria are both technically "neutral" countries, which poses significant questions in terms of EU-NATO cooperation.

I don't think that the two bodies will integrate; I just think that the overlap countries' militaries will start to form two categories: NATO troops and EU troops. It's easier to integrate your forces into the EU if you've had experience with NATO.