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Inventing a Crisis

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  • #31
    no you dont, its compounded interest, not simple interest. each year the principal grows, and the interest from last year goes up, meaning an exponential growth rate.


    I just calculated Gepap's example, and that gets you only $867,109 (ignoring the effects of inflation).
    "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
    -Bokonon

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    • #32
      Which is a whole hell of a lot more than Social Security would pay you for use of your money.
      I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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      • #33
        But how many people have the discipline and means to do that?
        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
        -Bokonon

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        • #34
          Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
          no you dont, its compounded interest, not simple interest. each year the principal grows, and the interest from last year goes up, meaning an exponential growth rate.


          I have a little compound interest slider that I used to come up with my figures.


          i wont cash out till the end.


          And if the market crashes just before your retirement, you might have to dealy retiring for another decade to recoup your losses.
          Christianity: The belief that a cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his flesh and telepathically tell him you accept him as your master, so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree...

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          • #35
            But how many people have the discipline and means to do that?
            Lots. Remember that Social Security itself taxes a $50k earner $6,375 a year off the top (not even taking into account the fact that earnings rise each year). Then it provides them with quite substandard return on investment.

            In addition to those funds, almost half of workers contribute to 401(k) plans. Indeed, workers are sitting on a $2 trillion nest egg already with the 401(k)s. Also, there is about $3 trillion sitting in IRAs.
            Last edited by DanS; December 7, 2004, 15:26.
            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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            • #36
              1. That's still well above the median income.
              2. That would only get him half a million (again, ignoring inflation), again, assuming that he has the discipline to do that for 30 years, and assuming that there aren't any complications.

              What's the median social security payout?
              "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
              -Bokonon

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              • #37
                $13,300 for somebody born in the 40s.
                I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                • #38
                  Originally posted by DanS


                  Lots. Remember that Social Security itself taxes a $50k earner $6,375 a year off the top (not even taking into account the fact that earnings rise each year). Then it provides them with quite substandard return on investment.

                  In addition to those funds, almost half of workers contribute to 401(k) plans. Indeed, workers are sitting on a $2 trillion nest egg already with the 401(k)s.
                  Workers contribute automatically to 401(k)'s, not by choice. Besides, half of workers does not equal half the population, nor are those amounts euqla to all.

                  People were free before 1934 to save money and invest for their own retirements. why don't we examine how well that system worker before?
                  If you don't like reality, change it! me
                  "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                  "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                  "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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                  • #39
                    Besides, half of workers does not equal half the population
                    That's also true of social security, after all. Only workers contribute.

                    Workers contribute automatically to 401(k)'s, not by choice.
                    No they don't.
                    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                    • #40
                      Workers contribute automatically to 401(k)'s, not by choice.
                      Que?

                      -Arrian
                      grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                      The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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                      • #41
                        Some simple facts about investment returns and the amount of saving you need.

                        Assumptions:
                        1. Real return on investment is 4% a year
                        2. Real incomes rise at 2% a year
                        3. Assumed real annuity income is 6% a year until death.

                        Years of saving, % of desired retirement pension needed to be saved each year:

                        45 years, 22%
                        40 years, 27%
                        35 years, 32%
                        30 years, 40%
                        25 years, 50%
                        19th Century Liberal, 21st Century European

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                        • #42
                          They chose to participate in the program offered by their company, but after their initial "sign me up", they don;t run their own investment choices AFAIK- large mutual funds do that.

                          Its nbot like they independently take their cash and sign up to an e-trade account.
                          If you don't like reality, change it! me
                          "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                          "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                          "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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                          • #43
                            With my 401(k), I choose whether to participate or not and how much to contribute. Also, if I wished to set up an e-trade account to manage it all, I could do so.
                            I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                            • #44
                              With my 401(k), I can adjust the percentage of my salary put in (0-20%, IIRC), and I can decide how to allocate my money amongst a group of funds (there are probably about 15 of them). I can move the money that's already there around, as well as adjusting where the money that goes in in the future will be allocated. At this point, given the changes to the funds (new funds come in, old funds are kept although you can't put more money in... etc), my money is spread out across a lot of funds.

                              I'm not aware of an option that allows me to micromanage my 401(k) via something like e-trade, but honestly I don't want that. I don't have the taste for that sort of investment. I'd rather spread my money out in the available funds, aiming for a mixture that provides me with moderate risk... and leave it there for a few decades. Fire 'n forget. As such, I may make less money that people who micromanage (or rather, those who actually know how to do that properly), but that's ok.

                              -Arrian
                              grog want tank...Grog Want Tank... GROG WANT TANK!

                              The trick isn't to break some eggs to make an omelette, it's convincing the eggs to break themselves in order to aspire to omelettehood.

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                              • #45
                                You can put up to $13k per year into your 401k and your employer can match up to 25% of that.

                                Any easy way to calculate compounded interest is "The Rule of 72" which states that you will double your initial investment every 7.2 years at a 10% interest rate, or double you initial investment every 10 years at 7.2%. Gives you a good idea.
                                Monkey!!!

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