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Are the Conservatives doomed?

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  • #1

    Are the Conservatives doomed?

    In a recent by-election for a previously Labor seat (the Tories came in second last time around) the Tories were utterly crushed and came in 4th behind the UK Independence Party. That's got to sting. Meanwhile the Lib Dems didn't even run for this seat (Hartlepool ) the last time around (I think) and they scored a very strong second.

    How long is it going to take for the Tories to get a shot at power if, when Labor is hemorrhaging voters, the Tories don't seem to be able to pick up any of them and are actually doing worse than before

    The Lib Dems are picking up some seats but it doesn't look like enough, the Tories are more pathetic by the day and the UKIP is pretty fringe (they don't have any House of Commons seats right?), looks like Labour will win again by default. You've got to hand it to Blair for staying on top (at least it looks like it at this point) despite the whole Iraq debacle.

    Oh, anyone know the basics of the other minor parties? Like Respect, NF, Common Good etc. etc. I don't know anything about most of them except for the Monster Raving Loonies of course...

    BBC NEWS | UK | Politics | Labour narrowly wins Hartlepool
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3705866.stm
    BBC, News, BBC News, news online, world, uk, international, foreign, british, online, service

    BBC NEWS | Politics | The Tories' disastrous night
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3705928.stm
    BBC, News, BBC News, news online, world, uk, international, foreign, british, online, service
    Last edited by Bosh; October 1, 2004, 06:21.
    Stop Quoting Ben
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Labor is hemorrhaging voters
    A result of Bush's failure to pass Kerry's "global test"

    Comment

    • #3
      IMHO the major problem that the Tories have is that so many voters in my 'demographic' remember what uncaring sh!ts they were in the 80's and will never vote for them in a General Election, no matter how bad Labour are percieved to be.

      Comment

      • #4
        Also, it's been mentioned that we've forgotten how massively large Labour's majority is by historical standards. They could afford to lose a few seats and still have a majority in Parliament.

        The death spasms of the Tories are fun to watch tho
        Exult in your existence, because that very process has blundered unwittingly on its own negation. Only a small, local negation, to be sure: only one species, and only a minority of that species; but there lies hope. [...] Stand tall, Bipedal Ape. The shark may outswim you, the cheetah outrun you, the swift outfly you, the capuchin outclimb you, the elephant outpower you, the redwood outlast you. But you have the biggest gifts of all: the gift of understanding the ruthlessly cruel process that gave us all existence [and the] gift of revulsion against its implications.
        -Richard Dawkins

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        • #5
          I think the Lib Dems can become the 2nd party by the next elections, they seem to be making massive inroads, especially in the cities. The Tories have suffered massivel from a/ electing a Thatcherite like Howard as their leader and b/ supporting the war in Iraq.

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          • #6
            Also is there any chance of the UKIP poaching the Tories' core votes and grabbing a few seats and really Conservative areas? They don't seem to be quite as bat **** crazy as the other right wing minor parties.
            Stop Quoting Ben

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            • #7
              *Ideally* the UKIP would tear all the social conservative, eldritch voters away from the Tories. UKIP could then wither away and the Tories could be reborn as a liberal, socially progressive party.

              Ha. Like that will ever happen.
              Exult in your existence, because that very process has blundered unwittingly on its own negation. Only a small, local negation, to be sure: only one species, and only a minority of that species; but there lies hope. [...] Stand tall, Bipedal Ape. The shark may outswim you, the cheetah outrun you, the swift outfly you, the capuchin outclimb you, the elephant outpower you, the redwood outlast you. But you have the biggest gifts of all: the gift of understanding the ruthlessly cruel process that gave us all existence [and the] gift of revulsion against its implications.
              -Richard Dawkins

              Comment

              • #8
                Also is there any chance of the UKIP poaching the Tories' core votes and grabbing a few seats and really Conservative areas? They don't seem to be quite as bat **** crazy as the other right wing minor parties.
                Well if you think living in a fantasy world that is stuck in the 1950's isn't quite as crazy. it dosent stop the delusional idiots from being mad. (They may take a couple of seats but not many)

                I think the Lib Dems can become the 2nd party by the next elections, they seem to be making massive inroads, especially in the cities. The Tories have suffered massivel from a/ electing a Thatcherite like Howard as their leader and b/ supporting the war in Iraq.
                The problem is that apart from in the south west, they are spread to evenly throughout the country. Labour are concentrated in the cities and the north. Tories in the countryside and the south west. so although the libdem's have increased their vote they need to increase it disproportionately to become the second party.

                If the tories collapse again at the next general election, their may be a disintigration of an infighting party and this might lead to the lib dems becoming the second party

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by Starchild
                  *Ideally* the UKIP would tear all the social conservative, eldritch voters away from the Tories. UKIP could then wither away and the Tories could be reborn as a liberal, socially progressive party.

                  Ha. Like that will ever happen.
                  Well what's going the happen?

                  1. More of the same. Tories stagger on and don't get power.
                  2. Tories solidify the base and smack down challenges from the right like the UKIP and bide their time.
                  3. Move towards the already crowded fuzzy center.
                  4. Move towards Libertarian Lite and get a good number of people who don't have a real party now. Let the UKIP consolidate as a fringe and then eventually grow as the Lib Dems and Labour fight over the same votes.
                  5. The Lib Dems go back to obscurity and Labour keeps on having problems, letting the Tories rule by default.
                  6. Die.

                  I guess those are in rough order of likelyhood...
                  Stop Quoting Ben

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Are the Conservatives doomed?

                    Originally posted by Boshko
                    Respect
                    George Galloway's party, a breakaway Labour MP. Very much against the war on Iraq, had deals with Saddam for large quantities of oil. Supported in some inner city areas, mostly by Muslims who's main issues is being against thw war. I'm sure EiF, were he here, would tell you about their corruption, but I'm not yet convinced.

                    Originally posted by Boshko
                    NF
                    Nazis. Like the BNP, but they don't claim to be peaceful.

                    Originally posted by Boshko
                    Common Good
                    No really sure. Some religious party, IIRC.
                    Smile
                    For though he was master of the world, he was not quite sure what to do next
                    But he would think of something
                    "Hm. I suppose I should get my waffle a santa hat." - Kuciwalker

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                    • #11
                      And F4J (Fathers for Justice) are a group that campaigns for father's rights in custody hearings. They like purple powder too
                      Smile
                      For though he was master of the world, he was not quite sure what to do next
                      But he would think of something
                      "Hm. I suppose I should get my waffle a santa hat." - Kuciwalker

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                      • #12
                        Where's Laz when you need him
                        Stop Quoting Ben

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                        • #13
                          Blair is the man. Smooth talker, knows how to get things done. If the Tories had any sort of leader I think they might be able to push back. They need the Governator. Oh and Sky News should ratchet it up a bit.
                          Accidently left my signature in this post.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            tont y blairu will win ibecause he is TEH PWNz0r
                            "I'm moving to the Left" - Lancer

                            "I imagine the neighbors on your right are estatic." - Slowwhand

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                            • #15
                              George Galloway's party, a breakaway Labour MP. Very much against the war on Iraq, had deals with Saddam for large quantities of oil. Supported in some inner city areas, mostly by Muslims who's main issues is being against thw war. I'm sure EiF, were he here, would tell you about their corruption, but I'm not yet convinced.
                              He's an odious git, but the charge that he had oil deals with Saddam was proven to be completely untrue.

                              Link

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