Are the Conservatives doomed?

[Standup]

o what you're saying is that all the voters that Labour is losing is basically the left?

Most of the disaffected Labour voters i know are to the left of centre and so are looking to the lib dems, greens etc. Scotland is good example of what's happening with Greens and Tommy Sheriden's party (Scottish Socialists ?) as well as LIb Dems picking up MSPs and votes.

I'm not saying that the results in Hartlepool will be in any way mirrored across the country but 2nd to 4th does look damn bad.

UK by elections are often protests and not always useful indicators of General Election voting intentions. The Lib Dems always do well as voters 'punish' the two main parties. Most voters return at General Elections though.

Firstly, how many of those people who were turned off by Thatcher live in Conservative target seats?

Well my old home for one (Stirling). Strangely though most people saw Michael Forsythe as a good MP - his position allowed him to push through many positve things for the area - but still felt bound by party loyalties.

"Never", however, is too strong a word.

It is but as the Conservatives continue to lurch towards the right to appease the 50 y.o. + Daily Telegraph readers they're not going to pick up my vote. The recent pro fox hunting demos only convinced me that they're heading up a cul de sac as this seemed to be pretty much their core constituency.

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by Standup



UK by elections are often protests and not always useful indicators of General Election voting intentions. The Lib Dems always do well as voters 'punish' the two main parties. Most voters return at General Elections though.

.

[Bosh]

Yes - in a constituency where neither the Liberal Democrats or Conservatives had ever bothered to campaign before, and everyone realised at the start that the Conservatives weren't going to win.

So a seat that used to be safe as safe could be for Labour almost went Lib Dem. Isn't that very very good news for the Lib Dems?

Conservative voters aren't going to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats in the huge swathes of seats where Conservatives are clear challengers and the Liberal Democrats are nowhere.

But from the looks of this by-election there's going to be more Lib Dem/Labour marginal seats. Thus more Tories tactical voting for Lib Dems. Right?

[*End Is Forever*]

Originally posted by reds4ever


No, you 'fire away' I was just voicing how I, and most of my peers, think.

To me, and I'm not trying to bait you here, Tower Hamlets was a result of poor, white people who arn't happy with immigrants (sp) getting more benefits then they are.

Actually, I disagree. This probably doesn't help my overall case, but we won the Millwall by-election for two reasons.

Firstly, the Conservative campaign aggressively targeted as potential supporters the Canary Wharf workers who live in the new flats on the riverbank, who now form a substantial minority of the electorate there.

Secondly, Labour lost a lot of ground in their "traditional areas" to RESPECT.

The intriguing thing about that by-election was that the Liberal Democrats did terribly, which was a genuine surprise.

Tower Hamlets is a very interesting part of the world, politically. If George Galloway stands in Bethnal Green & Bow, then there could be a real surprise there. Oona King is Blairite, Jewish (in a predominantly Muslim area), and was imposed on the constituency party from above, and an aggressive campaign by RESPECT could wash her core vote away. The Conservative candidate is Bangladeshi, well-respected and has cut away chunks of King's majority the last two elections. If Labour's vote falls to Galloway then there's the possibility of a tight three-way battle.

[*End Is Forever*]

standup,

Well my old home for one (Stirling). Strangely though most people saw Michael Forsythe as a good MP - his position allowed him to push through many positve things for the area - but still felt bound by party loyalties.

Stirling voted for Thatcher though - it was only lost in 1997. Thatcher undoubtedly cost the Conservatives votes in places like Stirling (and indeed across Scotland) but she did not cost them the elections.

The effect of what r4e described was largely felt in areas that were rarely or never Conservative anyway. The Conservative vote has declined significantly in many inner-city seats since the mid-seventies, but there were only a handful they were ever in with a chance of winning anyway.

[Standup]

But from the looks of this by-election there's going to be more Lib Dem/Labour marginal seats. Thus more Tories tactical voting for Lib Dems. Right?

Not sure about that. The only tactical voting i'm aware off is the 'anything but Conservative' type. So labour, LIb dem, SNP, PC voters will vote for the candidate most likely to defeat the Conservative. I'm not convinced the reverse is true. From what i've read core Tory voters are quite a large percentage of Conservative voters and tend to remain loyal regardless. The other main parties are a bit more fickle in their loyalties.

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by *End Is Forever*


Actually, I disagree. This probably doesn't help my overall case, but we won the Millwall by-election for two reasons.

At least you can see the funny side

The Muslim vote is going to be a BIG factor in the future, I suppose its a balancing act, trying to appease the poor white racists and at the same time letting enough immigrants (sp again!) in to get the Muslim vote?

[*End Is Forever*]

Originally posted by Boshko

So a seat that used to be safe as safe could be for Labour almost went Lib Dem. Isn't that very very good news for the Lib Dems?

Yes. That doesn't make it bad for the Tories however.

But from the looks of this by-election there's going to be more Lib Dem/Labour marginal seats. Thus more Tories tactical voting for Lib Dems. Right?

It is quite possibly that Tory voters will turn to the Liberal Democrats to defeat Labour, but only in seats where the Conservatives would never win anyway. There's no evidence of Tory voters deserting for LibDems under "normal" circumstances.

Indeed, the opposite might well happen. The Liberal Democrats are picking votes up from Labour, and in a significant number of seats that alone is enough to turn them blue. Take Selby for example - if 5000 Labour voters desert them for the Liberal Democrats (or just don't vote at all), and the Tory vote stays absolutely static, then it's a comfortable Tory gain.

There are a couple of wildcard seats, three-way marginals like Bristol West. What happens there is anyone's guess!

[*End Is Forever*]

Originally posted by Standup


Not sure about that. The only tactical voting i'm aware off is the 'anything but Conservative' type. So labour, LIb dem, SNP, PC voters will vote for the candidate most likely to defeat the Conservative. I'm not convinced the reverse is true. From what i've read core Tory voters are quite a large percentage of Conservative voters and tend to remain loyal regardless. The other main parties are a bit more fickle in their loyalties.

I think we've reached a point where people will consider tactically voting against Labour.

I think Labour voters will continue to tactically support the Liberal Democrats in certain seats against the Conservatives, however I doubt that LibDem voters will want to back Labour tactically any more. This spells bad news for Labour MPs like Jim Knight who are likely to be looking for work come May.

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by *End Is Forever*

What happens there is anyone's guess!

....errr, my money's on a third term for Labour wheres yours?

[*End Is Forever*]

In Bristol West? I think Labour will lose it, and whether it is picked up by the LibDem candidate or the Conservative candidate depends on the local campaign.

I'd put the LibDem as favourite if only because being (by a whisker) in second place will allow him/her to put out leaflets saying that the LibDems are the "main challengers".

[Standup]

It is quite possibly that Tory voters will turn to the Liberal Democrats to defeat Labour

My parents are an example of this - can't bring themselves to vote labour but are disillusioned with the Tories despite being Conservative voters for much of their lives. Pointing out that the LIb Dems are much more 'socialist' than Labour currently are just gets me funny looks. I'm sure there's many people who vote emotionally rather than according to actual policies. UKIP are a good example of this and the Greens. Both parties have very limited policies and are probably unrealistic.

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by Standup


From what i've read core Tory voters are quite a large percentage of Conservative voters and tend to remain loyal regardless. The other main parties are a bit more fickle in their loyalties.

I read somewhere that Labour used to do better when the weather was nice on election day, the support was that apathetic in some areas people would only drag themselves out of the house if the weather was nice.


Whereas Tory voters tend to be die hard Facists

[Standup]

Whereas Tory voters tend to be die hard Facists

It's because they all have 4x4s to drive to the polling station and nannies to look after the kids when they go

[reds4ever]

I worked in a polling station in the 1992 (or 1988?) election, Giles Brandreth (slimey tw@t) got Chester. The parties went around picking people up to vote but they could n't ask (by law) who the person was going to vote for when they picked them up. It was funny to see the Labour minibus coming back from the council estates and the Tory bus dragging the old dears in from the suburbs, both playing the percentages I guess.