Are the Conservatives doomed?

[*End Is Forever*]

Drogue,

George Galloway's party, a breakaway Labour MP. Very much against the war on Iraq, had deals with Saddam for large quantities of oil. Supported in some inner city areas, mostly by Muslims who's main issues is being against thw war. I'm sure EiF, were he here, would tell you about their corruption, but I'm not yet convinced.

RESPECT are a "coalition" of three main groups.

Firstly, George Galloway, maverick former Labour MP. Galloway is an intriguing character. He's said he regrets the downfall of the Soviet Union, refuses to criticise Stalin, and lunched with Saddam Hussein. He's also a social conservative (vehemently anti-abortion, for example).

Secondly, the Socialist Workers' Party (SWP). They're a shouty populist revolutionary socialist party and are very much on the fringes of the extreme.

Thirdly - although they've backed away from RESPECT to an extent - the Muslim Association of Britain. The MAB doesn't appear to be a mainstream organisation and was described by AWL (another far-left group, but who oppose RESPECT) as "on the fringes of Islamic fundamentalism, but fundamentalist nonetheless".

[*End Is Forever*]

Zulu,

The Lib Dems will certainly pick up a lot of seats from the Tories at the next election, but they won't become the main opposition in the next 20 years.

In 1997 and 2001 the Liberal Democrats pushed the "tactical voting against Conservatives" bandwagon as far as it could go. Except in specific by-elections where Labour is the "enemy", Conservative voters are not defecting to the Liberal Democrats any more, and in Tory/LibDem marginals they've already squeezed the Labour vote until the pips squeak.

If the LibDems gain votes from the Conservatives at the next election, it will be but a handful, and if you look objectively at the evidence, you'd see the Conservative vote more than holding up to the point where seats like Guildford and Richmond Park may well turn blue again.

I think the Liberal Democrats will make some headway in Labour seats, but the demographics are stacked against them - there aren't that many Lab/Lib marginals. Expect Birmingham Yardley and Cardiff Central to turn yellow, and possibly Rochdale, but beyond that it gets a bit patchy...

[Zulu Elephant]

EiF:
Your pretty much right on Hartlepool. It was bad for the Tories (well, bad for all three major parties) and it is impossible to draw any predictions about the general election from it. LD votes will come back to Labour and UKIP votes will go back to the Conservatives.

Overall though, things dont look good for the Tories at the General election with a Conservative win all but mathematically impossible. A hung parliament is unlikely but possible - however, I think that the Conservatives can only hope for a (reletively) small net gain in seats if the Liberals are able to take marginals off them.

[*End Is Forever*]

It will be difficult to win, yes. We will make progress, though, and I think we will surprise a few people with how much progress.

One thing that is certain is that a lot less people will vote Labour than did in 1997 and 2001. This will be enough to hand back a chunk of marginal seats to the Conservatives even if not one of those voters turns to the Conservatives.

Secondly, and I know this first hand, Conservative activists are far more motivated, are working harder and are better organised than the previous election. I've done a lot of work in marginal Selby (which is 13th on the Tory target list) and I can guarantee that even if the opinion polls are the same in May 2005 as they were in June 2001 that seat will come back to the Conservatives. I know a few people who work for John Grogan MP and even they privately concede he's very likely to lose.

Thirdly, with the Conservatives being out of Government for so long, will people still be as prepared to vote tactically? I imagine in the Liberal Democrat marginals, possibly so, but will LibDem voters in places like Dorset South stomach voting Labour?

I think the Conservatives will pick up 30 or 40 seats even without any noticeable change in the opinion polls...

[Zulu Elephant]

I think your probably right to some extent but if the Tories pick up 40 Labour seats (too early to tell but not impossible) and the Liberals take 20-30 seats (mostly from the Tories), that leaves Labour with a good majority

[Fake Boris]

Doomed to success, that is.

[The Andy-Man]

10 seats will go from liberal to tory, that is fairly certain. The question is reall who takes the 50 or so seats that labour will loose?

[Worthingtons]

Labour cannot continue to Keep popularity forever, as soon as the dissalussioned (sp) Fringe voters realise a Liberal vote is a wasted one, they'll start voting for us again.
Cheers

[Standup]

The Tories at the moment seem to be retreating to their heartland and so further to the right. While this might be popular with their core voters i can't see it picking up many new voters. As Labour seems to occupy the position of caring conservatism (pre Thatcher) their options do look limited.

With PR i think the LIb Dems would become a major force but at the moment most people i know whose natural inclination if left of centre won't vote for them as there's little point so they vote labour by default. As was mentioned earlier too many people of my age group remember Thatcher, the Poll Tax and MIners strike to ever vote Tory regardless of their actual policies.

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by Worthingtons
Labour cannot continue to Keep popularity forever, as soon as the dissalussioned (sp) Fringe voters realise a Liberal vote is a wasted one, they'll start voting for us again.
Cheers

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by *End Is Forever*
Good god, where to start on this thread...

How about addressing the fact that the Tories will *NEVER* get 'working class' people aged between 30 and 50 to vote for them in a General Election?

[Bosh]

The voters Labour lost in Hartlepool were core Labour voters - they'll never vote Conservative, but they will consider (in a by-election at least) the Liberal Democrats and (to an extent) UKIP.

So what you're saying is that all the voters that Labour is losing is basically the left? What does that mean for the middle-class areas that Labour picked up from the Tories in 1997? Will those all stay Labour then? If so its hard to see how the Tories aren't ****ed.

Yes, Hartlepool is a bad result for the Tories, but in the greater scheme of things it's about as relevent for us as Labour losing their deposits in the Christchurch and Romsey by-elections was for them.

Well its mighty embarrasing to go from second place (with the socialists in third) to forth. I'm not saying that the results in Hartlepool will be in any way mirrored across the country but 2nd to 4th does look damn bad. It also shows that the Tories can't grab people who're leaving Labour, and if the Tories can't do that how the hell are they ever going to get back in power?

Firstly, George Galloway, maverick former Labour MP. Galloway is an intriguing character. He's said he regrets the downfall of the Soviet Union, refuses to criticise Stalin, and lunched with Saddam Hussein. He's also a social conservative (vehemently anti-abortion, for example).

Sounds lovely. I'm sure all sane Labourites are happy to have him in the opposition.

Conservative voters are not defecting to the Liberal Democrats any more, and in Tory/LibDem marginals they've already squeezed the Labour vote until the pips squeak.

Looks like they might have in this last by election. Lib Dems went from nowhere to a very close second.

If the LibDems gain votes from the Conservatives at the next election, it will be but a handful

Didn't you just say that a whole lot of Conservatives voted Lib Dem in this last by-election to tactically get Labour out?

10 seats will go from liberal to tory, that is fairly certain.

How

[*End Is Forever*]

r4e,

You'd be surprised, actually. I'll try to keep this to pure demographics - disagree if you want, but this isn't meant to be a party political broadcast.

You're right, regardless of what people think about Thatcher there is - as you point out - a significant demographic that has been turned off the Conservative Party by memories of her.

"Never", however, is too strong a word. By the end of the seventies, plenty of people were saying they'd "never" vote for Labour again. It took a while, but they pledged to post-1992 and they did in 1997 and again in 2001. The last Conservative in Walkden before I won my election in June was defeated in 1979. Conservatives have a councillor in Tower Hamlets for the first time in a century.

Furthermore, two key points. Firstly, how many of those people who were turned off by Thatcher live in Conservative target seats? Sure, Thatcher's legacy is partly the architect for our poor results in the recent by-elections, but does it make a difference in marginals? Secondly, how many of these Tory-haters would ever have considered voting Conservative anyway? Not many.

[reds4ever]

Originally posted by *End Is Forever*
r4e,

You'd be surprised, actually. I'll try to keep this to pure demographics - disagree if you want, but this isn't meant to be a party political broadcast.

.

No, you 'fire away' I was just voicing how I, and most of my peers, think.

To me, and I'm not trying to bait you here, Tower Hamlets was a result of poor, white people who arn't happy with immigrants (sp) getting more benefits then they are.

[*End Is Forever*]

Dave,

So what you're saying is that all the voters that Labour is losing is basically the left? What does that mean for the middle-class areas that Labour picked up from the Tories in 1997? Will those all stay Labour then? If so its hard to see how the Tories aren't ****ed.

I'm saying that in these particular by-elections the vote Labour is losing is the left vote. The middle-class vote is all to play for - and you won't get any sort of indication of where the "stereotypical middle class vote" is going with a ballot in Hartlepool.

Well its mighty embarrasing to go from second place (with the socialists in third) to forth. I'm not saying that the results in Hartlepool will be in any way mirrored across the country but 2nd to 4th does look damn bad. It also shows that the Tories can't grab people who're leaving Labour, and if the Tories can't do that how the hell are they ever going to get back in power?

Let me try to give a (slightly convoluted) American equivalent to what happened in Hartlepool.

Let's take a solidly Democratic area in the forthcoming Presidential election - Washington DC.

John Kerry would be expected to carry DC comfortably. I assume that Bush would come a distant second.

Now, imagine for a second that a significant chunk of the voters in DC are pissed off with Kerry, for whatever reason. They decide to vote for someone else - but that someone else isn't going to be Bush, is it? So 25% of "Kerry's vote" instead goes to Ralph Nader (for example), and Bush is pushed down into third place. Meanwhile, some Bush voters sense that they could deprive Kerry of victory and - knowing Bush can't win in DC - also vote for Nader, reducing the Bush vote as well.

In this situation Bush would score very lowly - but does this make him any less or more well positioned in somewhere like Ohio or Florida? Of course not. It's pretty much irrevelent - as is the Hartlepool election to the prospects of the Conservative Party.

Looks like they might have in this last by election. Lib Dems went from nowhere to a very close second.

Yes - in a constituency where neither the Liberal Democrats or Conservatives had ever bothered to campaign before, and everyone realised at the start that the Conservatives weren't going to win.

Conservative voters aren't going to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats in the huge swathes of seats where Conservatives are clear challengers and the Liberal Democrats are nowhere. Likewise, in LibDem/Tory marginals every Labour voter who might consider tactically voting for the LibDem, probably already has...

Didn't you just say that a whole lot of Conservatives voted Lib Dem in this last by-election to tactically get Labour out?

Yes in this particular instance. The seats in which the next election will be decided won't have this problem. A LibDem surge at the expense of the Conservatives in Hartlepool is rather like a Libertarian surge at the expense of the Republicans in California - irrelevent.