How do you gamble to win?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Arrian
For goodness sake, man, SAVE YOUR MONEY! What the hell are you thinking?!?!?

You complain about being exploited all over this forum, and then you decide you're gonna hand over $5000 of your money to some of the biggest exploiters out there!

Wtf?!

-Arrian

Arrian,

My chances of losing are going to be as small as I want them to be. I'm not just going and blowing my money. This is caculated. Well as much as I can do the math. :P

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by LulThyme
yes but the problem is there is no sure fire way to win money, and that playing in the long run is actually a sure fire way to lose money.

Yep, that's why you have to quit.

So say you are stopping only if you either are over 100$ or under 5000$, then the best you could hope for are odds 1:50 in your favor, but in fact in most games youll get 1:48 or even worse odds.
Of course the odds are good since you are risking so much for so little and anywayt
in the long run, using a system is like using no system.

Yeah, this is about what I was thinking. So my probability of losing $5000 while trying to win $1000 would be somewhere between 1/5 and 1/4. If I reduce the target win to $500 then the probability gets down near 1/10.

[Arrian]

Okey-dokie! I'm sure you will beat the house. I mean, it's not like anyone's thought of this before or anything.

Dude, gambling is generally stupid. I'll give Floyd a pass because there is actually some skill involved in poker and you can play against other (less skilled) people, not the house. But even then, there is something called "bad beats" that can **** you.

But hey, if you want to piss away your money, why should a capitalist pig dog like me try and talk you out of it? Oh, yeah, because then you will whine that society should bail you out

:vomit:

-Arrian

[Kidlicious]

I'm going to do some experimental probability today. I think my odds are better than that.

[Kuciwalker]

You might as well just buy a bunch of lottery tickets, if you want to blow $5000 bucks out the window.

[Az]

If you see that you're losing but having an irresistable desire to go on, just send me the money. I need it much more than that casino...

[pchang]

If you play against other people (poker), your expected rate of return can be > 1 if you are better than the other players. However, if you play against the house, your expected rate of return will always be < 1. If you buy lottery tickets, there is a way to get your expected rate of return > 1, however you would have to play several thousands of times in order to get your chance of hitting a payout greater 50% (only playing when there are between 3 and 5 rollovers, then playing a few hundred tickets at a time). So, even playing several lotteries, you might only play once a month, so you would have to play for about 500 years or so....

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Kuciwalker
You might as well just buy a bunch of lottery tickets, if you want to blow $5000 bucks out the window.

You're not old enough to play the lottery. :P

[Kidlicious]

Have you guys ever played poker with someone who walked away as soon as they won some money? Pissed you off if you didn. If 2 people play poker together, and one agrees to play on until the other one quits, the first one is at a disadvantage regardless of the odds of the game. Which one would you rather be?

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Kidicious
You're not old enough to play the lottery. :P

So?

At least if you blow it on the lottery, it (probably) goes to state funding for education or something.

[Flubber]

I'll repeat what everyone else. Playing the house, on average, you lose. All that Vegas stuff wasn't paid for by winners.

[pchang]

Did you know that on average, the General Manager of a casino makes between $400,000 and $600,000 per year?

[Flubber]

Also kid, I am a little surprised you would gamble. although I don't know all the thought processes that go into the ideologies you espouse here, I would have thought that gambling would be unacceptable somehow. Obviously I have no quotes directly on point but a gambling casino seems so . . . . so . .. . overtly capitalist.

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by pchang
Lul Thyme's calculations are slightly off since the order of your win does not matter. Thus, the odds are slightly better.

Actually my computations are right and include the fact that the order of the win doesnt matter.
that why i multiply by 100 in case 1, by 100*99/2 in case 2, 1000*99*98/6

thats 100 choose n, to reflect the fact that order doesnt matter as you say and is the number of way to place the wins...

[pchang]

Sorry must have missed that part. Not used to seeing those equations in non-factorial form.