How do you gamble to win?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Zkribbler
first decide on the amount you want to win...say $100.

Exactly. This is what I should have said initially. This is the key. You have to decide how much you want to win. Keep playing the game until you achieve your goal.

The problem is you don't have an infinite supply of money. So what you do is set the amount of money you are willing to lose to abandon your goal. If the amount you want to win is small compared to the amount you are willing to lose your odds will be great.

Does anyone know of a way to calculate the probabilities of this?

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by LulThyme
And by the way your calculations are totally wrong, I will correct them in my next post

I know. I'm no mathematician. I had to arse someone to do the correct calculations. Thanx.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by LulThyme
My conclusion is this.
If you go play 5000$ at roulette (meaning the total amount of money bet) you will get on average 4800 $ buck at the end, and you're odds of winning big arent that great.
Thats how games of chance go.

No. I stop after I have won a much smaller amount.

[Kidlicious]

Originally posted by Solomwi
Either way, good luck, and if you walk out a loser, it's still good entertainment.

The entertainment is a problem. The goal is to take home money. If you get into the entertainment you will lose track of the goal. It's hard to with the cocktail watresses struting around flirting with everyone, lights flashing everywhere, and people having a good old time.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

get super system by doyle brunson

[Lawrence of Arabia]

williams was lucky to get into the finals tonite. too bad marcel didnt win it all, that guy is chill.

[Shi Huangdi]

(nm, misread post I was replying too)

[Urban Ranger]

Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia
get super system by doyle brunson

I have always wondered about those systems.

If they are so hot, the author would certainly be going on a winning spree in some casino.

So I think it's a racket, make money by writing a book on a system the author invented.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

doyle brunson is one of the top poker players in the world.

so yes, he does go on winning sprees in casinos. the problem is that there are limits, etc, in casinos, so he goes on winning streaks in tournaments, where the pot is $2million.

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by Kidicious


The entertainment is a problem. The goal is to take home money. If you get into the entertainment you will lose track of the goal. It's hard to with the cocktail watresses struting around flirting with everyone, lights flashing everywhere, and people having a good old time.

yes but the problem is there is no sure fire way to win money, and that playing in the long run is actually a sure fire way to lose money.
Some people make sort of a compromise : they get a system that will make sure they dont lose too much money too quickly and is fun to do...

[LulThyme]

Originally posted by Kidicious


Exactly. This is what I should have said initially. This is the key. You have to decide how much you want to win. Keep playing the game until you achieve your goal.

The problem is you don't have an infinite supply of money. So what you do is set the amount of money you are willing to lose to abandon your goal. If the amount you want to win is small compared to the amount you are willing to lose your odds will be great.

Does anyone know of a way to calculate the probabilities of this?

AT THE BEST, your odds will be the amount you want to win : the amount you are willing to lose.
So say you are stopping only if you either are over 100$ or under 5000$, then the best you could hope for are odds 1:50 in your favor, but in fact in most games youll get 1:48 or even worse odds.
Of course the odds are good since you are risking so much for so little and anywayt
in the long run, using a system is like using no system.

[David Floyd]

LoA, spot on regarding Doyle Brunson and "Super System" - I'd also recommend anything by David Sklansky, as well the "Caro's Book of Tells", and if you're into tournaments, Phil Hellmuth's book.

[pchang]

Lul Thyme's calculations are slightly off since the order of your win does not matter. Thus, the odds are slightly better.

[smacksim]

Craps typically has the best odds of any house game. It's slightly harder to learn though. Blackjack is second best for odds as far as I know. No game favors the player, obviously. I don't really enjoy gambling for some reason, but good luck to you!

I was just doing some research on probability and came across some stats page referring to the Kelly system,, which is demonstrably the best way to judge how much money to bet in any situation, statistically speaking. Basically you compute your current advantage and bet that percentage of your total stake. So if you had a hand in blackjack that had 51/49 chance of winning, you'd bet 2% of your stake (not that you can change your bet after the deal, but anyways).

[Arrian]

For goodness sake, man, SAVE YOUR MONEY! What the hell are you thinking?!?!?

You complain about being exploited all over this forum, and then you decide you're gonna hand over $5000 of your money to some of the biggest exploiters out there!

Wtf?!

-Arrian