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How do you gamble to win?

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  • #16
    Odd table, but fair enough. What number you bet on is mathematically irrelevant, as each has the same chance of coming up on a given spin. What I'm saying is that, as far as I can tell, your plan hinges on the winner coming up before 30 losers do. To put it another way, obviously, if you play long enough, the ratio of winners to losers will settle around 30:1, and all I can see that you're doing is betting the 100 spins you take are front-loaded with winners.

    100 $50 bets seems like a good middle between 1 $5000 bet and 5000 $1 bets, and your plan may well work this time. All I'm saying is it won't work a lot of times. Either way, good luck, and if you walk out a loser, it's still good entertainment.
    Solomwi is very wise. - Imran Siddiqui

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    • #17
      Don't play something that's based on pure chance if you want to win, since the odds are always against you.

      Play something like poker, blackjack, or baccarat.
      (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
      (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
      (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

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      • #18
        The ONLY game in a casino where the odds can be in your favor is poker, and that is because you aren't playing against the house. Even if you play blackjack PERFECTLY, (without counting cards) you are still at a slight disadvantage.

        Learn Texas Hold 'Em inside and out. Study pot odds, implied odds, poker theory, things of that nature. I can recommend some books if you like. Then, find a table full of a bunch of people who look like tourists - couples, old people, etc. - and take their money. They want to gamble, otherwise they wouldn't be in Vegas. You don't want to gamble, you want to win money. Therefore, you will play a different style of poker than they will - they'll be gambling, but you'll be playing the odds and the psychology. You'll win.
        Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/DaveDaDouche
        Read my seldom updated blog where I talk to myself: http://davedadouche.blogspot.com/

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        • #19
          Re: How do you gamble to win?

          Originally posted by Kidicious
          I'm planning on going to Reno or Las Vegas to gamble so big bucks. Well big bucks for me anyway. I want to win of course, but I want to plan to win. I already have a good plan and I'll post on it soon, but until then you guys can help me out with some ideas.
          You don't.

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          • #20
            I always had the best results from betting horses -- of course, there you're betting against other players, not the house.
            No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

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            • #21
              There are too many uncertainties betting on horses, though.
              (\__/) 07/07/1937 - Never forget
              (='.'=) "Claims demand evidence; extraordinary claims demand extraordinary evidence." -- Carl Sagan
              (")_(") "Starting the fire from within."

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              • #22
                Not if you study, but it's a lot of work. I proved to myself I could make a living off it, but I didn't really like the stress.
                No, I did not steal that from somebody on Something Awful.

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                • #23
                  Right now I'm playing poker online. As a test, I started with $1. I'm playing limit .25/.50, and I'm up to $6.35. I LOVE THIS GAME!
                  Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/DaveDaDouche
                  Read my seldom updated blog where I talk to myself: http://davedadouche.blogspot.com/

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Oerdin
                    If it was easy then everyone would be doing it and the casinos would go out of business.
                    damn right

                    Gambling can be fun but don't ever expect to win, don't chase losses and work out how much you are prepared to lose and make that your stake. Then have a great time.
                    Any views I may express here are personal and certainly do not in any way reflect the views of my employer. Tis the rising of the moon..

                    Look, I just don't anymore, okay?

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                    • #25
                      Kidicious, your plan is still a losing one on average.
                      of course your odds look good, but if you lose you lose a lot.
                      Its sorta like betting 10:1 in your favor, just more complicated.

                      Let me summarize, in big casinos, all games against the house are losing on the average, and the least losing ones and the skill ones like blackjack, where you can play 98 or 99% (meaning y lose 1 or 2 $ per 100$ bet on average with perfect play).
                      Now it IS possible to make a living gambling, either by playing against other ppl (poker etc) or by playing skill game very well in small gambling places with less strict rules, as Ming said...

                      and zkribbler's system is a called a finite St Petersburg paradox, and if you dont have an infinite amount of money, its not any better than any system in the long run...

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                      • #26
                        OK, final report - I turned $1 into $15.70. God I love this game.
                        Follow me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/DaveDaDouche
                        Read my seldom updated blog where I talk to myself: http://davedadouche.blogspot.com/

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Kidicious
                          Ok. Here's my plan. I'm going to take $5,000 to the casino. I picked this sum because it's the most that I'm willing to lose at any risk. The risk to lose it will be very small though. I plan to win between $500 and $1500. I plan to play Roulette 100 times with $50 chips, and bet that $50 on one number each time. However, if I win between the first and tenth time I will quit. I will also quit if I win three times out of that 100 bets.

                          Here's what I have for probabilities so far.

                          Probability of winning 1 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100 = 96.2%
                          Probability of winning 2 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100/2 = 80.6%
                          Probability of winning 3 out of 100 bets = 1/31^100/3 = 76.5%

                          What do you guys think?
                          And by the way your calculations are totally wrong, I will correct them in my next post

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                          • #28
                            If you like slot machines and have a lot of time, get on a machine on a link and play minimum bets and hope the link goes off on your machine.

                            Some of them have small regular jackpots of say a couple of hundred bucks.
                            Any views I may express here are personal and certainly do not in any way reflect the views of my employer. Tis the rising of the moon..

                            Look, I just don't anymore, okay?

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                            • #29
                              Ok Im assuming :

                              -you are playing a game that cost 1 dollar (doest matter if its 50 just multiply everything by 50)
                              -chance of winning 1/31
                              -if you lose, you get 0, if you win you get 30

                              (the numbers are not that important, for normal roulette, with 1/37 or 38 and 35 or 36, the results are similar)

                              I also assume you play exactly 100 times i can compute if you stop before that if you want but wont make much of a difference)

                              This is called a binomial distribution BTW
                              Odds of never winning : (30/31)^100 = 3.766% (lost 100 $)
                              odd of winning exactly one time : (30/31)^99 * (1/31) * 100 = 12.555 % (lost 70 $)
                              odds of winning exactly twice : (30/31)^98 * (1/31) ^2 * (100*99/2) = 20.7166 % (lost 40$)
                              odds of winning exactly three times : (30/31)^97 * (1/31)^3 * (100*99*98/6) = 22.558 % (lost 10$)
                              odds of winning exactly four times : (30/31)^96 * (1/31)^4 * (100*99*98*97/24 = 18.234 % (gain 20$)

                              I could go on but its a bit long and Im using crappy java calculator...
                              Ask anybody who knows probability to check, but these look normal to me.
                              So looking quickly you have about 55% chance to lose
                              and only about 27% to win more than 20$ (after deducting the 100%.
                              The average expectancy is easy to compute, you gain on average 30/31 per bet, so if you bet 100$ you will have about 96$ on average at the end....

                              Which isnt so bad really, on a slot machine you would have about 60$.


                              My conclusion is this.
                              If you go play 5000$ at roulette (meaning the total amount of money bet) you will get on average 4800 $ buck at the end, and you're odds of winning big arent that great.
                              Thats how games of chance go.

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                              • #30
                                Invest your $5000 in the stock market.

                                Or come back from Vegas saying, "Why didn't listen to NeOmega and invest in the market!?"

                                I casino gambled once, bet $5 on 40 to 1. Walked out of the casino $195 dollars richer, never looked back.

                                I lost it all on scratch tickets over the next few years, until I gave those up too.

                                I saw a sign at the Chevron today, it said "It pays to play"

                                For state lottery... and i was like "How can we allow our government to advertise like that?" Maybe our liquor stores should have signs that say "It reduces your risk of cancer: and let cigarette companies have signs that say "it stimulates your lungs"
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