Hello, My Name is Hurricane Ivan

[MalevolentLight]

I live in palm harbor which is North western Pinellas county. According to the track it shows the eye going just off shore of us. Say goodbye to Tampa.

[The Mad Monk]

Cubans are
ill-prepared for Ivan
Island braces for the worst, but few can afford to protect themselves

By Mary Murray
Producer
NBC News
Updated: 1:51 p.m. ET Sept. 10, 2004
HAVANA - Cubans called it the “one-two punch.” After Hurricane Charley battered the island less than a month ago, decimating 70,000 homes and racking up a billion dollars in damage, Ivan was fast approaching on Friday, packing deadly Category 4 winds and rain.


Cuban Civil Defense authorities have divided up the island in red and yellow zones, the colors signifying different phases of alert and response.

Evacuations began Friday in six eastern provinces, placed on red or full alert.

Some 100,000 people have fled their homes and authorities expect to order the evacuation of up to half a million people before the monster storm makes landfall sometime on Sunday. Thousands of cattle are being evacuated as well.



The western provinces of Pinar del Rio and Havana, including the capital city, are on yellow alert where residents of low-lying areas are being told their evacuation order could be issued with just a few hours notice.

Over 300,000 boarding school students were sent home early so that authorities could convert their schools into government-run shelters. Many of these schools are large enough to house as many as 5,000 people.

Radio Reloj, the island’s all-news radio station, is broadcasting around-the-clock emergency hurricane updates from Cuba’s National Meteorological Institute and orders from the Army’s Civil Defense unit.

Castro: 'Remain calm'
Despite the gravity of this storm, Fidel Castro appeared on national television late Thursday, straining to remain optimistic. He urged people to “remain calm and disciplined.”

The Cuban president added, “The number one thing is to protect lives. We’ll work out the rest. It may take time but we will recover.”

As Castro showed maps downloaded off the U.S. government’s National Weather Service internet web site, he voiced every Cuban’s biggest fear: Ivan would sweep across Havana, the vulnerable Cuban capital.

No money for hurricane proofing
The historic city of 2 million people is not prepared for a hurricane.

Unlike the scenes in Florida, only 90 miles away, there are no big hardware stores stocking emergency supplies, no special steel shutters or planks of disposable plywood.

Instead, some glass windows have a few strips of masking tape that will do little to shield anyone from a shattering wind. Most windows are made of wood.

This is the Caribbean and a country of poor people. Homes here are open — normally to catch the slightest breeze to offset the tropical heat. Roofs are weak, many buildings crumbling.

No one is flocking to the grocery store or gas stations. In general, people don’t have the cash reserves to stock up on groceries, nor is there a variety of goods available.

For example, car batteries are the most sought-after consumer product at the moment. But they are only available on the black market at double the normal price.

While a small generator locally costs as much as $900 — a fortune for your average Cuban — innovative people power their homes with $50 car batteries. But they sold out after Hurricane Charley smashed into the island’s power grid and shut off the lights. Some southern coastal towns are still without power.

No one doubts that a direct hit on Havana will cause the maximum damage, especially if Ivan stalls over the city.

Dr. José Rubiera, the island’s top meteorologist and an expert at predicting hurricanes, described the storm as “relentless.”

He fears he will pummel Cuba for as long as 12 hours, leaving tens of thousands homeless.

Mary Murray is an NBC News producer based in Havana.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5962187/

FACING THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF HURRICANE IVAN
More discipline than ever to preserve human lives
• Fidel instructs the population on TV Roundtable program

JOSE A. DE LA OSA—Granma daily staff writer—

SPEAKING a few hours before a hurricane of serious intensity reaches our country, President Fidel Castro called on the population to demonstrate more discipline than ever before in order to preserve life and health, and to follow to the foot of the letter directions from the Civil Defense so as to avoid loss of human life, given that everything else can be reconstructed.

"What cannot be restored are human lives," he emphasized, "but with our energy we will confront and resolve the adversities." He also talked of the need to protect storehouses, food reserves and school equipment, confirming that the island is prepared and nobody should be disheartened whatever the hurricane destroys.

Fidel was participating yesterday in the third TV Roundtable focusing on the exceptional education program of the Revolution.

Commenting on the characteristics of Hurricane Ivan, at 9:30 p.m. yesterday Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale of five, the Cuban president compared it with the effects of an atomic attack given its ample radius of material destruction. But after it has passed, he assured, a whole people will be working on reconstruction.

"We are better prepared than anyone to confront this atmospheric phenomenon, as would be the case in a war," he affirmed. "For that reason, the key at this point is discipline and strict fulfillment of Civil Defense instructions, because we have to imagine things that have never been seen."

He reiterated that the most important thing is to preserve human lives and stated that there are sufficient reserves to confront a hurricane like this one, or even a military aggression.

He observed that those responsible for intensifying the economic blockade of Cuba will be very happy, given they are unable to destroy the Revolution, so "roll on a cyclone," and the bigger the better in order to make the educational experience of the Revolution to "disappear from the map."

The Cuban leader stressed that he was announcing in advance that no aid will be accepted from those unleashing cruel economic warfare on our country. "Let them save themselves the hypocrisy of offering aid to Cuba," he stated.

"We have confidence in the peoples," he added, "that they will recognize the barbarities being committed by our enemies. And so, blockaded and with all the new measures against our country, we are going to defend and preserve life, health and food, even if innumerable banana plantations are swept away.

He recalled that after the last cyclone hit Cuba the U.S. government offered the ridiculous sum of $50,000 of humanitarian aid. "And we didn’t accept it. The only thing we can allow is a total end to the blockade and the economic aggression of our country! We are going to demonstrate that we are capable of resisting this hurricane as well, and others if they arrive, and how we can reconstruct the country with our own resources."

http://www.granma.cu/ingles/2004/septiembre/vier10/38ivan2.html

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by MalevolentLight
I live in palm harbor which is North western Pinellas county. According to the track it shows the eye going just off shore of us. Say goodbye to Tampa.

I'd really rather not, as I had a couple of job leads down there.

[Drake Tungsten]

Nebraska

So, anyone wanna put me up for a couple of days?

Sure, come on over.

[The Mad Monk]

At around 22:00 Jamaica reported all power out, twenty-three foot waves washing rocks and trees onto roads.


I may have misheard, but I think the radio just reported losing all contact with Jamaica.

[chequita guevara]

On the news, they were showing people who weren't leaving ocean front areas because they were afraid of looters, even though the live (at this point, probably lived) in tin ****ing shacks! How god damned stupid can you be!?!

[Giancarlo]

Oh crap.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/081448.shtml?

Category 5 is possible.

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN NEARING JAMAICA...COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS EFFECT FOR CUBA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH... AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA FROM CABO CRUZ TO SANTIAGO DE CUBA. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA.

-----

Everybody must evacuate. Any person who stays is a stupid idiot.

[chequita guevara]

I'm expecting thousands of dead.

[Giancarlo]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
I'm expecting thousands of dead.

If this turns out as bad I think, it could be tens of thousands.

[The Mad Monk]

Originally posted by chegitz guevara
On the news, they were showing people who weren't leaving ocean front areas because they were afraid of looters, even though the live (at this point, probably lived) in tin ****ing shacks! How god damned stupid can you be!?!

Something tells me they're not there anymore.

[smacksim]

Anyone have any live coverage of Jamaica?

Here's an infrared loop of Ivan, which seems to be swerving around Jamaica, like it's on a mission (there was the idea that the mountains would put a dent in the thing...oh well).

Noaa link to a java loop

[GePap]

Hurricanes rarely kill thousands- the greatest danger would be from landslides and flooding from the heavy rains, not from wind damage- after all, even with all the huge wind damage to Grenada, under 50 people died there.

[Giancarlo]

Smacksim, thanks. It seems like it has taken a slight turn towards Central America and Mexico in the last frame there..

[smacksim]

I know, it's a weird thing, and contradicts the written statements. I do have to admit that I've seen some of the Noaa loops change in the last frame before, only to later be corrected, but who knows?

I did some more research and the PM of Jamaica declared a Public Emergency for the whole country around 2:00 PM today. 500,000 people were told to move to high ground and shelter, but only 5,000 are reported in public shelters. Everyone is staying in their houses to prevent looters. IMO, there will be many deaths from this, if it really did continue moving inland (unlike the noaa loop shows). Their last major hit was in 1988 and a local said that (Cat 3) storm was already dwarfed by Ivan's rain, waves, and flooding. Hell, there was flooding at 2:00 PM, while Ivan didn't even arrive in full force till midnight. It's going to be really bad and there's little to do about it now.

The Jamaican govt. opened an account with Wachovia bank for donations. The article I read just published the account number, but that seems a little sketchy to me. They are going to need a lot of help. I suppose the best thing would be to start calling US govt. to request we send aid immediately. A British ship is already on the way.

Oh, Grenada is refusing all supplies and help until they quell the looting and/or find the 75 escaped prisoners....ooops. But 100 carribian soldiers from 5 nations showed up to help put the smackdown on the looting....

-S

[Hueij]

OMG, Jamaica is right under that monster. This is going to be worse than Gilbert in 1988...