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And Kerry's bounce out of the convention is........

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  • #91
    A few things to keep in mind:

    1. Not everyone has seen Kerry's speech yet, or it hasn't sinked in. Let local news cover it for a week, and then we'll see what the bounce was. Consider that Kerry has a big advantage among those who are familiar with him and a big deficit among those who aren't.

    2. Young people who are overwhelmingly for Kerry (as the Zoby poll demonstrates) don't stay at home Friday and Saturday nights, so polling on the weekends give the GOP an artificial advantage.

    The convention went about as well as it possibly could. I wouldn't be suprised if we see Kerry up by 10 in a week or two.
    "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
    -Bokonon

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    • #92
      Originally posted by DanS


      I agree. So why did both Boston and the Democratic party throw all that money down the rat hole again?
      Because their Liberals..... and that's what Liberals do....?

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      • #93
        Originally posted by Ramo
        The convention went about as well as it possibly could. I wouldn't be suprised if we see Kerry up by 10 in a week or two.
        I would. It seems that the electorate is fairly entrenched, and the undecideds aren't going anywhere any time soon. So I think that the story of this election will be a virtual tie until those undecideds start making up their minds, which likely won't be until the debates.

        Unless, of course, Bush brings out bin Laden in chains a la King Kong at the GOP convention.
        Tutto nel mondo è burla

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        • #94
          Originally posted by GhengisFarb

          Because their Liberals..... and that's what Liberals do....?
          And what about in 2 weeks when the GOP and NYC pour their money down another such "rat hole?" Will you say the same thing about the conservatives?

          Oh, of course not, that would be consistent.
          Tutto nel mondo è burla

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          • #95
            Unless, of course, Bush brings out bin Laden in chains a la King Kong at the GOP convention.


            Ok, that would just be amazingly cool .
            “I give you a new commandment, that you love one another. Just as I have loved you, you also should love one another. By this everyone will know that you are my disciples, if you have love for one another.”
            - John 13:34-35 (NRSV)

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            • #96
              Especially if he escaped and climbed the WTC... oh, wait.

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              • #97
                Originally posted by Boris Godunov


                And what about in 2 weeks when the GOP and NYC pour their money down another such "rat hole?" Will you say the same thing about the conservatives?

                Oh, of course not, that would be consistent.
                NYC will spend a huge sum cause, well, everything in NYC is bigger and better, and hence more expensive.
                If you don't like reality, change it! me
                "Oh no! I am bested!" Drake
                "it is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong" Voltaire
                "Patriotism is a pernecious, psychopathic form of idiocy" George Bernard Shaw

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                • #98
                  I would. It seems that the electorate is fairly entrenched, and the undecideds aren't going anywhere any time soon. So I think that the story of this election will be a virtual tie until those undecideds start making up their minds, which likely won't be until the debates.


                  I think a number of undecideds will make up their mind in the coming weeks. As is generally the case.

                  But whether they make up their mind now or later, a large majority will likely break for Kerry.
                  "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                  -Bokonon

                  Comment

                  • #99
                    The WaPo/ABC poll shows a 2% bounce. Pathetic. The only consolations are that Kerry shored up his base to a minor degree and some of the issues moved his way slightly. 9% of Kerry voters moved from "voting against Bush" to "voting for Kerry".

                    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34914-2004Aug2.html
                    I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                    • #100
                      The new poll shows Kerry now claims the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Bush, with independent candidate Ralph Nader at 2 percent. On the eve of the convention, Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent.


                      Where do you get 2% from? Kerry's lead has increased by 8% (from -2% to 6%).
                      Last edited by Ramo; August 2, 2004, 18:00.
                      "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                      -Bokonon

                      Comment

                      • #101
                        Internals of the WaPo/ABC poll:

                        Trust Candidate on These Areas:
                        Trust to Handle Now Pre-convention Net Change
                        Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
                        Terrorism Bush +3 Bush +18 Kerry +15
                        Iraq Kerry +2 Bush +12 Kerry +14
                        Taxes Kerry +6 Bush +6 Kerry +12
                        Education Kerry +13 Kerry +1 Kerry +12
                        Economy Kerry +11 Bush +1 Kerry +12
                        Health care Kerry +19 Kerry +3 Kerry +16
                        Int'l relations Kerry +9 NA NA
                        Intelligence Kerry +5 NA NA

                        This is insanely good news for Kerry. The only area where Bush leads is in terrorism, and even there by a tiny margin. I have little doubt that the horse race will catch up to reflect these numbers.
                        Last edited by Ramo; August 2, 2004, 18:18.
                        "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                        -Bokonon

                        Comment

                        • #102
                          Where do you get 2% from?
                          LVs, as stated in the article.
                          I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891

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                          • #103
                            LV models are bull****, especially this far from the election. They're for people who think poly sci is actually a science. RV's are much more reliable.

                            And the article mentions that Kerry has a 2% lead in LV's, not a 2% bounce.
                            "Beware of the man who works hard to learn something, learns it, and finds himself no wiser than before. He is full of murderous resentment of people who are ignorant without having come by their ignorance the hard way. "
                            -Bokonon

                            Comment

                            • #104
                              Originally posted by Boris Godunov


                              And what about in 2 weeks when the GOP and NYC pour their money down another such "rat hole?" Will you say the same thing about the conservatives?
                              Of the course I'm not going to call conservatives "Liberals," that makes no sense, silly.

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                              • #105
                                Originally posted by GhengisFarb

                                Of the course I'm not going to call conservatives "Liberals," that makes no sense, silly.
                                I already anticipated and preempted that lame line by specifying "conservatives," numbnuts.
                                Tutto nel mondo è burla

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