Is the EU going to dissolve to a simple free trade area?

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Cruddy
We already have the veto on defence, tax and social welfare.

If we still have them by the end of the weekend. The French believe they've made enough concessions already. Though I doubt Blair would be stupid enough to agree to anything crossing his red lines, because the people will simply vote it down.

Originally posted by Cruddy
Up to 55% of our trade. That's a lot of bread.

Of course, we'll only know EXACTLY how much by doing it.

Most likely a lot less than 55%. IIRC, EU trade is just under 50% of our trade, and most of that will remain. However I do agree we'll still lose some.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
What would prevent us having a free trade agreement with the EU, like other non-EU European states do?

Even if others do, it doesn't necessarily mean we'll be granted it. We can't take it for granted. Most UKIP voters seem to think we can just leave the EU and keep the free trade, but it isn't that easy.

Originally posted by Park Avenue
Have you heard of the WTO?

A paper tiger that has inordinate trouble enforcing even the most obvious of it's rulings. With a strong WTO, I'd make leaving the EU easier. Not that the EU always enfoces it's rules (French ban on British beef, for example) but i had more power than the WTO.

Originally posted by Park Avenue
We aren't leaving the free trade area. Are you aware of any other European countries that trade freely with the EU without being part of it?

Not with complete removal of tariffs, such as the Common External Tariff, no.

[Solly]

"However I do agree we'll still lose some."

Why?

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Cruddy
Hmm... you mean, we would starve before they did?

Sorry, not going to risk that possibility.

I don't know where you got that from. What he means is that protectionist measures, tariffs and the like, will hit the EU harder than they'll hit us, and would likely aid our balance of payments deficit. However both sides would lose some trade and thus jobs, efficiency and GDP, though the EU would be hit hrder than the UK, as they would lose more exports than imports.

[Solly]

"Most UKIP voters seem to think we can just leave the EU and keep the free trade, but it isn't that easy."

Why not?

And when it comes down to it, entities like the WTO and EU only have as much power as governments are willing to give them.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Cruddy
Hmm... you mean, we would starve before they did?

Sorry, not going to risk that possibility.

I don't know where you got that from. What he means is that protectionist measures, tariffs and the like, will hit the EU harder than they'll hit us, and would likely aid our balance of payments deficit. However both sides would lose some trade and thus jobs, efficiency and GDP, though the EU would be hit hrder than the UK, as they would lose more exports than imports.

[Solly]

"I don't know where you got that from. What he means is that protectionist measures, tariffs and the like, will hit the EU harder than they'll hit us, and would likely aid our balance of payments deficit. However both sides would lose some trade and thus jobs, efficiency and GDP, though the EU would be hit hrder than the UK, as they would lose more exports than imports."

Which, all in, means that we will be quite suited to remaining in a free trade area with other European countries. There's no reason for us to be out of one, nor for them.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
"Most UKIP voters seem to think we can just leave the EU and keep the free trade, but it isn't that easy."

Why not?

Because we don't have that option yet. We need to renegotiate a free trde agreement. We can't just remove the political entity and keep the fee trade without talks. We don't already have an independant free trade agreement, as UKIP seemed to try to claim.

[Solly]

"We don't already have an independant free trade agreement, as UKIP seemed to try to claim"

I don't think you've yet to actually say how the EU benefits us apart from the free trade aspect of it that we have outside of it.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
"However I do agree we'll still lose some."

Why?

Because removal of the political entity could stir up badwill in other EU nations who then buy products from different nations instead. When we're not part of the EU, we don't get sole rights to Chedder Cheese, for example, so copycats can be made. Also without the political integration some cross border work will be harder, due to the different regulations in place and the lack of industry harmonisation. Add to that the lower inward investment, as countries wanting to have a base inside the EU, to keep inside the external tariff, will more likely relocate to an area with the same industry, currency and trading rules as the rest of the EU, than the UK, meaning we'll import their goods, rather then exporting them to the EU.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
Which, all in, means that we will be quite suited to remaining in a free trade area with other European countries. There's no reason for us to be out of one, nor for them.

Spite. They'll at least hold it up, just to annoy us for leaving the EU. Them not being happy with us has a direct impact on us, and we can't guarantee they won't cut their nose to spite their face.

[Drogue]

Originally posted by Park Avenue
"We don't already have an independant free trade agreement, as UKIP seemed to try to claim"

I don't think you've yet to actually say how the EU benefits us apart from the free trade aspect of it that we have outside of it.

Which has nothing to do with my point. We don't have the free trade aspect outside of the EU, unless we negotiate for it. We can't simply leave the EU and have the free trade agreement stay in place, since they're intrinsic. We would have to cancel the alliance and then get another free trade agreement. We don't have a free trade agreement independant of the political integration already in place. We only have one as part of the political integration, and wile it is likely we'd be able to negotiate one, we cannot assume so, since it is their decision.

[Solly]

"Because removal of the political entity could stir up badwill in other EU nations who then buy products from different nations instead."

How likely?

"When we're not part of the EU, we don't get sole rights to Chedder Cheese, for example, so copycats can be made."

So we'll be able to make champagne and parma ham too?

"Also without the political integration some cross border work will be harder, due to the different regulations in place and the lack of industry harmonisation."

Whatever this means...

"Add to that the lower inward investment, as countries wanting to have a base inside the EU, to keep inside the external tariff, will more likely relocate to an area with the same industry, currency and trading rules as the rest of the EU, than the UK, meaning we'll import their goods, rather then exporting them to the EU."

Ah the old "inward investment" argument - if we don't do this, if we don't do that "we'll lose inward investment". Well guess what, it's completely fallacious.

[Bereta_Eder]

If the UK left EU Brussels would have even more authority on it. That's why it stays despite what its populace want.

[Solly]

"If the UK left EU Brussels would have even more authority on it."