248,000 jobs created in US last month; 947,000 in last 3

[DanS]

The price of gas goes up and it goes down. Don't count on it being as expensive as it is today come November. Or even August.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS
The price of gas goes up and it goes down. Don't count on it being as expensive as it is today come November.

The question is, will it be back to a buck 50, which is normal, or to $1.80, which is stll mch higher than the average for the last few years.

Plus, again, it is a question of time-opne needs time to set the agenda, to have your spin work-the longer gas prices and Iraq eat up the news cycle, the less time Bush gets to try to get out a positive spin.

[JohnT]

What is your assertion of the average US voter based on? I am going by polls, and election results, which while not greta are better than just assertions not backed by numbers.

http://www.tipponline.com/articles/04/ibd/i051204.htm

Confidence Rebounds As Data Drown Fears Of A 'Jobless Recovery'
Brian Mitchell
Investor's Business Daily - May 12, 2004

Americans' faith in the economy bounced back in May, after a three-month slide and a turnaround on jobs.

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 2 points, or 3.8%, to 54.8, its first move up since hitting a 22-month high of 60.6 in January. Over 50 means optimism.

"Americans' economic confidence is quite strong," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner.

"The improvement is nearly universal," he said. "The past few months have been positive on the job front, and this is going a long way towards bolstering the economic outlook."


The index has a good track record of foreshadowing the confidence gauges put out later each month by the University of Michigan and the Conference Board.

IBD/TIPP conducted the national poll of 981 adults from May 2-8. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.


The Economic Optimism Index is made up of three components, two of which improved in May.

The six-month outlook rose 1.9 points to 52.4, and the confidence in federal economic policies component jumped 4.5 points to 52.3. But the personal financial outlook shed 0.4 point to 59.9.

Confidence in federal policies had sunk below 50 in each of the previous two months.

But this month, more than one in three Americans (37%) give President Bush good grades for handling the economy, up 5 percentage points over April. More Americans also seem to think Bush's tax cuts are helping, now that solid hiring has resumed.

The country has added 867,000 nonfarm payroll jobs so far this year, including 288,000 last month. April's employment report was released May 7, after most of the IBD/TIPP polling.

Unemployment edged down to 5.6%, matching the lowest level since late 2001. New filings for jobless benefits fell in April to the lowest level since October 2000.

Fear of a jobless recovery had taken its toll on consumer confidence, despite a big boost after the capture of Saddam Hussein in December. But the fear seems to be easing as the labor market improves.

"The number of respondents who fear that they or someone in their household will lose a job in the next year dropped from 23% in September 2003 to 19% this month," Mayur noted.

"But we are not totally out of the woods," he added. "The share of households classified as 'job sensitive' is 32%. These households tend to be pessimistic about the economy."

The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index improved for nearly all demographic groups.

Investors' confidence rose 2.4 points to 58.6. Non-investors saw a smaller lift of 0.8 point to 51.4.

The index declined slightly in the West, in households with $30,000 to $50,000 in annual income, and for young adults and single women.

While suburbanites are the most optimistic at 60.7, urbanites showed the biggest advance of 2.6 points, to 53.1. Rural households also became more optimistic, with a gain of 1.6 points to 52.9.

Republicans and Democrats ticked up slightly in May. Republicans are still the most confident at 72.4, up 0.2 from April. Democrats improved a little more, gaining 0.4 point to 42.1.

But the big move was among independents, rising 3.8 points to 52.1. Self-styled moderates also shifted from pessimism to optimism, adding 1.5 points to 51.3.

Residents of "blue" states — Democratic strongholds — had the biggest increase in confidence, jumping 3.5 points to 53.4 in May.

Battleground states gained 1.8 points. GOP strongholds rose half a point to 57.6.

[GePap]

Interesting-look at the personal number-flat form the month before. Add to that that that very index is down from January still, and back in january Bush did not appear at all a better pick than today.

Plus that ignores what I said-that Iraq will set overall attitudes more than the economy.

[JohnT]

I responded to your point about Iraq in a previous post. Did you not read it?

[GePap]

Yes, but your answer does not match with any numbers out there.

[el freako]

One thing that is interesting about these employment numbers is the ratio of employment to adult population.

This has not changed at all (at 62.2%) during the last three months and is now below the level it was 10 years ago (something that hasn't happened since the 1930's).

When you add to that the fact that Labour force participation is still falling it does not look like a genuinely strong recovery in the job market yet.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

hey dan, 7th time is the charm aint it.

[DanS]

Knowing that about a million more Americans have jobs now than they did 3 months ago is charming.

[GhengisFarbâ„¢]

Originally posted by DanS
So my conclusion is that you're pulling the opinion out of your ass.

A conclusion that you probably come to a lot about several different poster at Apolyton.................

[JohnT]

Originally posted by el freako
One thing that is interesting about these employment numbers is the ratio of employment to adult population.

This has not changed at all (at 62.2%) during the last three months and is now below the level it was 10 years ago (something that hasn't happened since the 1930's).

When you add to that the fact that Labour force participation is still falling it does not look like a genuinely strong recovery in the job market yet.

However, the "adult population" includes a vastly increased number of retirees that didn't exist in the thirties. The ratio will decrease as the baby boomers retire in increasing numbers over the years, keeping up with the trend that started a decade ago. The declining ratio of workers to retirees is also one of the reasons why the solvency of Social Security is in question.

[Sava]

Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
Now if you had wage growth in those jobs, that would be nice too. I don't find it terribly thrilling when you have large job losses, then you get job growth back to a point that's almost as many jobs as you had before.

Especially when I know a lot of people who are now making < 50% to ~80% of their previous incomes.

Which is why this job growth news isn't spectacular. But wait! According to some in this thread, we're in a major economic boom! to that

[Sava]

Originally posted by DanS


It's very convenient if your aim is to make the economy look like it is doing poorly for partisan political purposes.

Compared to those trying to make it look good for partisan political purposes.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Drake Tungsten
We don't have a bubble to fuel the economy now,

Yes we do. Stocks are still priced on their seventy year earnings potential. That is outside the realm of speculation and into pure fantasy. That's a bubble. It wasn't the internet that caused the tech bubble, it was deregulation. We're still deregulated and tech ipos are already the news again. Smell that Google IPO. Good times are here again!

[DanS]

Stocks are only modestly overpriced. All you have to do is run a simple discounted earnings calculator to see that this is so.