248,000 jobs created in US last month; 947,000 in last 3

[DanS]

This is just GePap's MO. Two months ago he said that we need a couple of months of strong payroll growth before we can start celebrating.

Now, two months later and the strong payroll growth delivered, he wants to emphasize something more dour.

[JohnT]

Originally posted by DanS
Once the query times out, the link will be hosed.

Ah...

Well, read it quick everbody!

[JohnT]

Originally posted by Ramo


Are those wages real?

Meh.



Actually, I think they're nominal. Like I said, I can't find the original link that gave me that data (the BLS website is just a freakin mess), but I'm pretty sure there wasn't $2 in real wage growth in the past 4 years.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS
This is just GePap's MO. Two months ago he said that we need a couple of months of strong payroll growth before we can start celebrating.

Now, two months later and the strong payroll growth delivered, he wants to emphasize something more dour.

As I said before danS, you can't DanS the point of a thread. NOt once have I said the eocnomic growth is bad, nor that I am not happy iot has occured. What I have said is that bush will gain little if any political capital from it-which is the point of this whole thread.

[Odin]

I won't consider our economy recovered until wages are going up again. Just because you find a job doesn't mean you will be paid as well, especially if you get stuck at a McJob (like me).

[DanS]

It's plum obvious that this good news will help Bush over time. This is a no-brainer!

Kerry's camp knows this and is trying its best to minimize the good news in precisely the same way that you are doing, GePap. It's a losing argument for Kerry. They are trying to do their best considering the lay of the land. But it's a losing argument.

All Bush has to say is "We were hit hard over the last couple of years, but now, because of my policies, we're back, baby! 2 million jobs created so far this year!"

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS

All Bush has to say is "We were hit hard over the last couple of years, but now, because of my policies, we're back, baby!"

Bush spin: "we are BACK!"

Dem spin "We have stagnated for 4 years".

You keep ignoring reality DanS. News are about things that change daily, exciting, so forth. Why when you hear about a muder on TV, the newscaster ususally fails to add: "But, of course, the current muder rate is half of what it was 5 years ago".

This summer tow things will dominate-certainly Iraq. War trumps peace, death trumps jobs.

High costs of living,specially oil. The cost of oil is something people see daily. It eats away at them. The price of everything goes up.

Those two stories will eat up the summer, just as the war ate up the spring (and proved your previous predictions wrong). This means Bush will, if lucky, get a very short time frame in which to bask in the job numbers-by the the race will be defined. There are always surprises, but Bush should pray harder for Osama to be caught than for these job numbers to continue.

[DanS]

Yes, that dour picture will be what Kerry will try to paint over the summer. He's got to do it (well, that's debatable), but it's not a winner.

Hey, what's happening to Kerry's "misery index".

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS
Yes, that dour picture will be what Kerry will try to paint over the summer. He's got to do it (what else would he do?), but it's not a winner.

What "dour" picture?

It's called spin. You are doing it right now, by always claiming the picture is rosy. Compared to 2002, yes, to 2000? NO. And you see, the question is, which point of reference will win-2000, or 2002.

And as for Clinton's "its the economy stupid", well, that was a great quote in 1992-but it failed to be true in 2000, and given that 140,000 American are in a warzone, it will hardly be true come November. How Iraq goes will be much more important for Bush's future-note that as support of the war goes down, so does his, even if jobs increase.

[DanS]

I don't know how you can judge the relative importance of the economy versus Iraq. Even pros admit that they don't know. So my conclusion is that you're pulling the opinion out of your ass.

[GePap]

Look at the simple numbers:

Overall support of the war has gone down slighty, but those who think it is being handled well goes down significantly. As this occurs, the jobs picture gets better-but Bush numbers tank, in line with those who think Iraq is being mishandled.

And we are not even talking about the increasing price of oil, which then leads to greater prices accross the board. Does Bush 2 know the cost of a half gallon of milk?

[DanS]

Overall support of the war has gone down slighty, but those who think it is being handled well goes down significantly. As this occurs, the jobs picture gets better-but Bush numbers tank, in line with those who think Iraq is being mishandled.

The jobs numbers are not yet reflected in his approval ratings. Over time, they will be reflected as people continue to hear about their friends getting jobs.

How much this will help Bush is uncertain. But it will help him. As sure as the sky is blue.

[JohnT]

Bush spin: "we are BACK!"

Dem spin "We have stagnated for 4 years".

GePap, that only works if people blamed Bush for the economy. They don't: they blame the double-whammy of 9-11 and the laxness of oversight caused by the irrational exuberance of the 1997-2000 bubble. And, despite your assertions, the average American voter is just as likely to remember previous recessions and gas spikes as I am and a number of them will come to the conclusion that they weren't as bad as could be. After all, the highest unemployment rate for this recession was 6.3, the lowest "peak" for a recession since 1969.

Oil is comparably expensive, yes, but if anecdotal evidence is allowed we haven't seen a demand for higher payments from our regular contractors because of the oil thing. Now I expect to do so if it increases to $2.25, $2.50 at the latest, but for right now the price of gas isn't affecting our cost structure even though it is the number one expense of our contractors.

And with Iraq, who knows? Many forget that a lot of what happens in Iraq is dependent upon the Iraqis: we're seeing signs of the provisional government wanting to take things in their own hands.

It's not impossible to rebuild an occupied nation (WW2 has shown us that), but to rebuild and redirect... that's a tall order. For all we know Bush might actually pull this one off. It's very, very unlikely, but still within the realm of possibility.

Regardless, the American people don't blame Bush for the recession and a large number of them are still waiting to declare their own verdict on Iraq. Dan is correct: Good news for the economy is good news for Bush. And the country.

[GePap]

Originally posted by DanS


The jobs numbers are not yet reflected in his approval ratings. Over time, they will be reflected as people continue to hear about their friends getting jobs.

Yes, lets see every day discussions:

Hey Honey, did you hear Bob got a job?
Oh, yes, that nice...30 buchks for Gas! 30! What, am I made out of money!
I know, it is ridiculous, even the milk is much more expensive. Well, good thing Bob got a job, cause otherwise, how would they make it?

How much this will help Bush is uncertain. But it will help him. As sure as the sky is blue.

Ok, he might get .1% more votes...pie in the sky?

[GePap]

Originally posted by JohnT

Regardless, the American people don't blame Bush for the recession and a large number of them are still waiting to declare their own verdict on Iraq. Dan is correct: Good news for the economy is good news for Bush. And the country.

He is not getting much benefit from it.

GePap, that only works if people blamed Bush for the economy. They don't: they blame the double-whammy of 9-11 and the laxness of oversight caused by the irrational exuberance of the 1997-2000 bubble. And, despite your assertions, the average American voter is just as likely to remember previous recessions and gas spikes as I am and a number of them will come to the conclusion that they weren't as bad as could be.

You mean like they forgave Bush senior?

What is your assertion of the average US voter based on? I am going by polls, and election results, which while not greta are better than just assertions not backed by numbers.